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eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee※ 引述《Wang5566 (貝貝)》之銘言：
: Amid a bleak season for New York Yankees fans, science offers
: some solace -- the wrong team, the Florida Marlins, beat them
: in 2003's World Series, finds a study.
: ---
: "The world of sports provides an ideal laboratory for modeling
: competition because game data are accurate, abundant, and accessible,"
: answers the study in the journal Physical Review E. "Even after
: a long series of competitions, the best team does not always
: finish first."
: READ THE STUDY: Efficiency of competitions
: LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LAB: Randomness in competitions
: The problem, say study authors Eli Ben-Naim and Nick Hengartner
: of the Los Alamos (N.M.) National Laboratory, is that the baseball
: season, at a mere 162 games, is too short. Instead, the number
: of games that would keep a lucky-but-lousy team from dethroning
: a statistically superior team is 265.
: ---
: The study authors, who specialize in studying random behavior in
: complex materials, plugged the odds of low-seed teams beating
: high-seed ones, 44%eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee in baseball over the last century, into a
: mathematical model of a typical season.eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
: The more games played, the better the chances that the highereeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
: seeded teams will become champions, according to the study.
: And it becomes less likely that a weak team will weasel its
: way to the top.
: ---
: But to ensure that the best Major League Baseball team wins,
: a longer World Series, say 11 games, would be mathematically
: appropriate. "The same is true for other competitions in arts,
: science and politics," write the study authors.
: A more efficient competitive process would be to schedule a
: preliminary series of competitions to cull the obviously bad
: teams, and then follow with a longer season devoted to only
: the good ones.
: "In real life, we have to compete all the time, rank people,
: rank proposals and other things," Ben-Naim says. The study
: suggests a more efficient approach in such cases would be to
: throw out the worst competitors immediately and "spend all
: your energy evaluating only the few obviously best ones."
: Tough luck for the Marlins in that case. Statistics indicate
: they were the worst team in 30 years to win a World Series,
: say the authors.
: = =''
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