Re: [情報] Blue Jays Nearing Deal For Dickey
Toronto bets high on R.A. Dickey
Keith Law專欄的文章
In a finally-completed trade, the Blue Jays got a No. 1 starter, probably,
but paid dearly for that return in prospects -- they really just acquired one
year of R.A. Dickey's services. In extending him at a very reasonable salary
for the next two years (with a club option), the Blue Jays limit their
downside if Dickey can't repeat his historic 2012 season.
Dickey's 2012 season was historic, perhaps the best year ever by a
knuckleballer, and certainly the best year ever by a pitcher without an ulnar
collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He would give the Jays a bona fide
front-of-the-rotation starter if he repeats it or comes close. Dickey throws
an unusually hard knuckler and throws it for strikes, something not generally
associated with the pitch. His knuckleball finds the zone more often, misses
more bats, and stays in the park at a decent clip as well, all highly
attractive factors that should give the Jays reason to believe he won't
regress too badly simply by switching to one of the majors' strongest
divisions. Toronto acquiring him at such a high cost in prospects seems to
imply that they believe he'll continue to rack up innings and pitch somewhere
near the level he showed in 2012, which are two big assumptions -- one sound,
one a little shaky.
If Dickey can repeat his 2012 performance, the deal looks a lot better for
the Jays.
Dickey's durability, even with his limited track record as a successful major
league starter, shouldn't be a major worry. Phil Niekro reached 200 innings
seven times after his 40th birthday, throwing an amazing 342 innings in his
age-40 season in 1979. (By that standard, Dickey's kind of a wuss.) Charlie
Hough reached 200 innings three times after reaching age 40, and Tom
Candiotti, Joe Niekro, and Johnny Niggeling each did it once -- so 12 of the
59 such seasons in baseball history were achieved by knuckleballers, of which
there aren't many. In fact, the two common threads among the 30 pitchers to
reach 200 innings after age 40 is that each was either a large-bodied power
pitcher, like Nolan Ryan (four times) or Randy Johnson (three), or was a
no-effort soft-tosser, like the knuckleballers mentioned above -- spitballers
like Jack Quinn (four) and Gaylord Perry (three) ... or Jamie Moyer (four),
who threw batting practice during games and got away with it until his arm
gave out. If we can draw any general conclusions from the group, it's that
Dickey should at least be durable, even if he can't repeat what he did in
2012. (It might also make Yankee fans feel better about C.C. Sabathia for the
long term.)
The problem with assuming Dickey will continue to pitch as an ace -- or even
at a level close to it -- is that he's such an atypical case. Three years
ago, he was barely a big leaguer, and while he was among the best pitchers in
baseball in 2012, he's also entering his age-38 season and has just that one
year of elite-level pitching behind him. He could continue pitching this way
for five more years, or he could revert back to what he was in 2010-11, which
will be a definite help to Toronto, but far from Cy Young-caliber. There's no
way to predict which version will show up -- not based on his history, and
not based on other knuckleballers' histories -- since his own profile differs
so greatly from those of the Niekros, Tim Wakefield, or Hough.
Toronto's rationale for the deal looks better if you consider the status of
the club before the deal was consummated. This is a huge quantity of young
talent to give up to gain 3-4 wins in a single season, but their starting
pitching was so bad in 2012 that even the 2011 version of Dickey would be
worth at least that much in 2013. It only makes sense in the context of the
current AL East, in which the Jays were already at least a fringe playoff
contender, and are now, at least on paper, on par with the Tampa Bay Rays,
the best team (again, on paper) in the division at this point in the
offseason. If Dickey's 3-4 added wins are the ones that put the Jays into the
playoffs -- which they may very well be -- the return on their investment
will look substantially better. Flags fly forever, and the Jays are facing an
unusual opportunity -- the two traditional AL East powers, the Yankees and
Red Sox, are weaker than they've been in some time, and the most popular
sports team in Toronto, the Maple Leafs, is busy watching its commissioner
try to drive the sport into oblivion. If the Jays start strong in April with
no Leafs and the Raptors in the tank, there's a very good chance they'll see
their 2013 attendance catch up to their performance (something that often
lags for teams having their first good season in a while, like Baltimore saw
in 2012), leading to a revenue boost before the season is out, to say nothing
of the substantial revenue boost all teams see when they reach the
postseason. It's an unusual confluence of factors that makes the Jays' sudden
shift to go for it in 2013 more logical than it would be for other sub-.500
teams.
For just one year of Dickey's services, the Mets get a ridiculously large
haul. Travis d'Arnaud has been among the top catching prospects in the game
for two years, and, if he can stay healthy, will give the Mets a centerpiece
position player who fills a critical spot on the field while producing enough
to be among the top 3-4 catchers in the league, if not better.
That caveat about health is particularly relevant to d'Arnaud, who has
already missed time as a pro with back and knee problems, as well as acute
injuries like a broken finger, leaving him with an average of just 88 games
played over his five full seasons in pro ball, and never more than 126 in a
single year. Catchers are more susceptible to injury because of the nature of
their job, and if d'Arnaud is injury-prone to begin with, he might have a
hard time developing or playing enough to reach his potential.
The Mets also get a wild-card pitching prospect in Noah Syndergaard, a big
kid who looks the part of a starter but doesn't have the repertoire to be
more than a back-end guy yet. Syndergaard has touched 100 mph as a starter,
and will comfortably work from 92-97, flashing an average to above-average
changeup and showing a very smooth, easy arm stroke that he can repeat
without much difficulty. The Jays have worked with him for two-plus years to
develop an average breaking ball, but he has yet to find one; you could grade
his curveball as potentially above-average, and he has the high slot for it,
but if he doesn't have that laxity in his wrist there's a good chance the
pitch never gets there. He's a solid acquisition for the Mets because of his
size, delivery, and easy velocity, but he's also very high-beta and could end
up a back-end guy or even a reliever if that third pitch doesn't make some
major strides.
The third prospect turns out to be significant, which is counter to early
rumors that he was a throw-in. Wuilmer Becerra got $1.4 million from Toronto
out of Venezuela in 2011, and he's had just 39 pro at-bats, with his 2012
season shortened by a broken jaw after being hit in the face by a pitch. He
has a sweet-looking right-handed swing with strong hands, keeping his head
steady with great hip rotation and loft for future power as his body matures.
He should have the arm for right field, although I'd like to see the Mets
work out this slight hesitation he has before release. There's no way a
player like Becerra, who will be lucky to see the majors before 2016, could
stand in the way of the Jays making this trade, but his inclusion makes the
return all the better for the Mets.
The Jays did get a backup catcher back in the deal in Josh Thole and rid
themselves of John Buck, a small net gain because Thole, who has decent plate
discipline but not much else, is cheap, with four years of team control
remaining. Overall, however, this deal is three prospects for a year of R.A.
Dickey, followed by a cheap two-year-plus option extension. For the Mets,
it's an absolute no-brainer, a move that carries some risk but that would
have made sense for them if they were only receiving d'Arnaud for Dickey. For
the Jays, it makes sense given its context, with a weaker division and a
chance to grab mindshare that can be converted into loonies before the year
is out. It's also the kind of deal that could haunt the Jays in 2016 if
d'Arnaud is in the All-Star Game and Berrera is high at the top of my
prospect rankings, but that will sting less if Dickey brings them to the
playoffs before he's through.
大意:只要Dickey不論是這季Cy般身手或2010-2011都能幫助貴隊,如果因為Dickey的加入
而幫助貴隊多拿3-4剩而打進季後賽,這筆交易Law認為這筆交易做的很好,我想是
因為Law喜歡Sanchez>>>>Syndergaard的關係吧!!另外,這筆交易後已經讓貴隊
變成美東最強球隊,祝福你們有個美好的2013球季。
Power Rankings After Dickey Trade
Buster Onley的專欄文章
8. Toronto Blue Jays
As written here yesterday, they're the best on-paper team in the AL East, and
could take another long stride forward if Jose Bautista stays healthy and
Brett Lawrie evolves.
輪值圈: Dickey+Josh Johnson+Mark Buehrle+Ricky Romero+Brandon Morrow
洋基強打Curtis Granderson對於這輪值圈表示they could be pretty good.
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