[外電] 交易大限前的拓荒者
前言:總板規矩多，隊板這篇有多翻幾段關於隊內的狀況
來源:The rose garden report (Sean Highkin 拓荒者隊伍記者)
網址:https://reurl.cc/GXMrLd
https://reurl.cc/LX9drK (拓荒者球迷信箱答疑)
https://i.imgur.com/pcoo4Wo.jpg
We're in the middle of my least favorite week of the NBA calendar.
我們正處在NBA日程中我最不喜歡的一週當中
There are no trades yet—just a lot of waiting and a lot of rumors. And with
that comes a lot of stress for everyone. For those of us on the media side,
it's trying to chase this stuff and figure out which whispers we hear are
real and which ones are posturing. For you, the fan, it's spending hours
killing time on the Trade Machine wondering why your team's GM won't just do
something already. For the GMs themselves, there are a lot of moving parts to
juggle—multiple talks about the same players with different teams, figuring
out what works under the salary cap, mitigating leaks and leverage plays.
目前尚未有交易案發生，只能在滿滿的乳摸中等待。山雨欲來風滿樓，對於我們這群
記者來說，一直在試圖確認這些留言是否真實，抑或只是來帶帶風向。但對球迷而言，
降低見光死的風險及後續的蝴蝶效應
It's even worse for players. Even the guys that swear they don't read social
media or pay attention to this stuff are lying. Everyone in every locker room
sees the same rumors you see and knows who's on the block, even if they don't
talk about it in the open. They hear you screaming online to trade them. Some
are affected by it, some are not. The players who know they're being traded
know that means they're going to have to move their families to a new city on
short notice. You can make the argument that NBA players get paid a lot of
money to deal with these headaches, but that doesn't mean they're not real.
對球員的影響更糟，甚至是那群發誓不關注社交媒體或這些流言的人只是在說謊罷了，
每一位在更衣室的球員都會跟你各位看見相同的乳摸，且更清楚知道誰在檯面上，
即使他們不會公開談論這些。當球迷在網路大喊交易時，有些球員會受影響，有些不會。
球員當被告知交易時，不得不短時間準備好帶著家人搬到新城市，你確實可以說NBA球員
賺這麼多錢本來就該面對這些，但這就是實際發生在球員身上的事
It makes everyone in the building on-edge, especially within teams in
situations like Portland's, where losses have piled up lately and everybody
knows changes are coming. Even Damian Lillard, the most even-keeled player
I've ever covered, snapped at a reporter a couple weeks ago for asking a
question about the trade deadline after a bad loss to the Lakers, and he's
the only guy on this team that knows he's not getting traded. Everyone's
feeling it, and everyone would rather it be in the rear view.
這使得每個人都處於風口浪尖，尤其是像波特蘭這樣的球隊，近期的影響逐漸增大，
且每位球員都知道即將有變動。就連Dame也一樣，在我採訪生涯中最冷靜的球員，
也在幾週前輸給湖人的比賽後，對一名提問關於交易大限的記者發火，他也是隊伍
唯一一名不會被交易的球員。每位球員都能感受到這股氛圍，也希望能在未來藍圖內。
You can always tell it's this time of year by who's in town. Lately, Trail
Blazers general manager Joe Cronin has had just about his entire front-office
staff, many of whom are usually out scouting college or NBA games this time
of year, in the arena and at the practice facility. Assistant GMs Andrae
Patterson, Mike Schmitz and Sergi Oliva have been here, along with director
of basketball planning and strategy Asjha Jones, who manages the team's
salary cap. This is the time for everyone on the staff to hunker down and
focus, and also the time for us to read way too much into which executives
from the visiting team's traveling party we spot on the court before a game
talking to someone from Portland's front office. The feeling of tension and
uncertainty is inescapable.
每年的這段期間你能透過誰還留在波特蘭判斷狀況。最近克總已經把幾乎全辦公室人員
都派了出去，其中很多人這期間通常都待在球場或訓練場偵查大學或NBA比賽。包含助理
總管群 Andrae Patterson、Mike Schmitz和Sergi Oliva，還有負責管理薪資空間的球團
戰略總監Asjha Jones。現在是所有辦公室人員都需要集中精神的時候，也是所有記者媒體
在賽前採訪波特蘭管理層時，同樣關注跟隨客隊來訪的各自相關管理層人士的時候。緊張
與不確定的氛圍是無法避免的。
That's why I hate this week. Being around this much unspoken stress just
creates more stress, and all anyone can do is wait. The real action happens
in the two to three days before the Feb. 9 trade deadline. For now, it's just
wishing the next seven days would go by so whatever happens is done and over
with, and knowing it's going to have to wait a little longer.
這就是我痛恨這週的原因。當面對這麼多無法言述的壓力只會帶來更大的壓力，而所有人
還是只能等待。2月10日交易大限前兩三天才會進行真正的操盤。現在就希望無論發生什麼
變化，接下來的七天都能過去，雖然這時間會有些漫長。
The Blazers are in a very different spot now than they were a year ago. In
February of 2022, they had already made the decision to shut Lillard down for
a core muscle surgery and pivot the rest of that season towards what they
called "player development," which really just meant losing a lot of games to
get a high draft pick. Everyone knew C.J. McCollum was being shopped, along
with other high-priced veterans like Norman Powell and Robert Covington who
weren't going to be part of the long-term plan and didn't click with
first-year head coach Chauncey Billups. The organization was still picking up
the pieces from last winter's investigation and eventual firing of president
of basketball operations Neil Olshey, and it wasn't clear how much authority
Cronin would have to make a major trade as an interim GM still trying to earn
the permanent job.
拓荒者目前的狀況跟一年前大不相同。2022年2月，決定把小李關機進行核心肌肉手術，
並在剩餘賽程開展所謂的"球員發展"計畫，其實就是開坦高順位選秀籤。每個人都清楚
CJ擺在貨架上，包含高價值的老將，像是砲哥及RoCo，他們不被放在球隊的未來藍圖，
且跟第一年的總教練槍西不合。球團也正在處理2021冬天的調查，並開除了前總管奧總，
而剛上任的臨時總管克總也還不清楚有多少權力去處理重大交易，且在努力爭取正式的
總管身分。
One year later, Cronin is fully entrenched as the top decision-maker and has
built out an entire new front-office staff, radically changed the roster and
signed Lillard to a huge extension that all but ensures he'll retire as a
Blazer.
一年後的今天，克總已經確立了最高決策者的身分再組建完畢全新的管理團隊後，同時
徹底地改變了球員名單，並且與小李續了一筆巨大金額的合約，幾乎可以確定小李會在
拓荒者退休。
Now comes the hard part: taking a roster with some things to like but a long,
long way to go to become elite, and reshaping it again into whatever the
contending version of the final years of Lillard's prime will look like.
現在是困難的階段：構建球隊陣容，目前要成為勁旅還有很長很長的路要走，如何在小李
最後的幾年巔峰期去重組名單。
---------------以下是球迷信箱答疑---------------
"Do you think the Blazers' recent play this season will affect Jerami Grant's
willingness to re-sign with Portland this year? And more importantly, if
Grant and his team force Cronin to wait until unrestricted free agency—when
they're competing against Memphis and 'maybe' Los Angeles, will he be worth
paying $120-$160M in salary over 4-5 years? Would that turn the Blazers into,
as Hollinger describes them, "Wizards West?"
「你認為拓荒者近期的表現是否會影響Grant的續約意願?更重要的，要是Grant團隊
迫使克總等到Grant變成非受限自由球員，當拓荒者對決灰熊或洛城雙雄是否值得給他
120-160M/4or5y的合約? 會不會讓拓荒者變成火靈哥描述的那樣"西區巫師隊"?」
I don't think a few bad weeks in January changes anything on either side. The
Blazers didn't trade for Grant to let him walk after one season, and Grant
from what I know is very happy here.
我不認為1月份幾個糟糕的星期會改變雙方任何事情。拓荒者不會讓Grant打一季就離開，
且就我所知，Grant待得很開心
Grant recently told The Athletic that he's unlikely to sign the four-year,
$112 million extension he's eligible for right now, which isn't a surprise.
Why would he lock himself into a number he's outplayed this season when he'll
be able to get more years and more money by waiting six months? It's probably
going to be one of those deals that gets "agreed to" at 12:01 on June 30,
like Anfernee Simons this past summer, because the Blazers and Grant's
representatives will already have a good idea of what makes both sides happy.
So I wouldn't expect any drama there.
Grant最近告知The Athletic他不太可能簽下112M/4Y的續約合約，這其實不令人意外。
他的賽季表現遠大於這個金額的價值，尤其六個月後能獲得更多錢及更多的合約年，
何必現在接受呢? 但很有可能成為自由市場剛開市就談妥的合約之一，像是去年的賽門
一樣，因為拓荒者球團跟Grant團隊已經有共識什麼能讓雙方都開心，所以我不覺得會有
任何的抓馬發生。
I'd expect the deal he ultimately signs to be somewhere in the range of $30
million per year over four or five years, enough above the $28 million annual
salary that would be his max now for him to be able to say he earned a bigger
deal, but not so much more that it kills Portland's cap sheet long-term.
Grant turns 29 in March; even if he's able to get a fifth year by waiting
until the summer to re-sign with Portland, his next contract will take him
through his age-34 season. It's not crazy at all to think he'll still be a
productive player by then, and the final three years of the deal will be
under the much higher salary cap that's expected to come when the league's
new TV deal kicks in in 2025.
我預計Grant會簽下年均30M的四年或五年合約，足以超過他目前的最高年薪28M，他會獲
得更高的薪水，但並不會卡死拓荒者未來薪資空間，即使暑假有利用鳥權簽下五年合約，
綁定他到34歲。認為他到時仍然是一名有貢獻能力的球員也不太瘋狂，甚至最後三年期間
的薪資帽預期會提高很多，因2025年新電視轉播合約開始生效。
You're going to see the number of $233 million thrown around as the max Grant
could sign for this summer, but that's just what he's eligible to get under
league rules. It's not going to be close to that. As we see every summer when
deals get reported in the opening minutes of the free agency period, teams
and players often have handshake agreements already in place. Given the
positive things both sides have said about each other here, I'd be shocked if
that wasn't the case with Grant and the Blazers.
你會看到Grant可能簽下233M的頂薪，那是他有資格根據聯盟CBA所能爭取到的最大金額。
但不會接近這數字的。當簽約消息在自由市場開市後被報導時，球隊與球員通常已經有
握手協議。根據雙方已經商談過的積極意向，如果拓荒者跟Grant分手我會非常驚訝。
(後續跟巫師的戰文內容我略過)
"We gotta trade Hart, right? I mean...we just gotta. We won't let him walk, so
if we don't trade him, we end up signing him, when we don't really want
to...at least that's my guess.
SO - who do you see out there? Who makes sense? Would Hart get us Vanderbilt?
Do the Bucks make sense for Hart? Ingles? SO - do you think we trade him, and
if so, who do you see out there? If you don't think we trade him, do you
think we end up signing him? For how much? Thanks! So happy I subscribed.
I'll certainly be a long term subscriber. Thanks for your work."
「我們會交易Hart，對吧? 我是說，可能必須交易。我們不會讓Hart變空氣，所以假如
我們不交易他，我們即使不想最終也會續約他，這只是我的猜測。
那你有什麼消息嗎?交易誰合理? Hart for Vanderbilt(Jazz)?公鹿對Hart有興趣嗎?
換Ingles? 如果你覺得拓荒者不會交易Hart，那你認為拓荒者會續約嗎?開多少價碼?」
Nothing is done until it's done, but I'll be very surprised if Hart is still
a Blazer at this time next week, for all the reasons you've laid out. Nassir
Little has played well enough to start since coming back from his hip injury
last month, and re-signing Hart for what his market value will be doesn't
make sense financially considering the other money they'll have committed to
starters and how far the roster still has to go to be a contender.
交易完成前什麼也做不了，但要是Hart交易大限之後還留在拓荒者，我會非常驚訝，
因為你已經把原因說出來了。Little從臀部傷勢回歸後，表現已經足夠好，且重簽Hart
的市場合理價格對於薪資空間的利用沒有道理，這是因為考量到會給其他先發球員更多
的薪資，且必須把拓荒者的球員名單打造成勁旅。
I don't like to get too deep into hypothetical trade targets because I
actually talk to the people involved here, so I'm wary of what I say I think
they could get for Hart being misconstrued as reporting that they've actually
had those talks, but I will say that Hart easily has the most value of anyone
on the roster likely to be moved. He checks all the boxes of being on a good
contract and being a valuable and versatile enough player that every team in
the league would want him, to where Portland could get something of value for
him. That's why I think he's just about certain to be moved.
我不喜歡太過深入的探討交易目標，因為我實際跟拓荒者相關人員聊過，所以我必須
謹慎得把持能透漏的內容，否則很可能讓Hart被誤解報導出來已經有商談交易事宜，
但我可以很肯定Hart是可動名單內最有價值的球員。Hart符合所有條件，良好合約，
有價值且多功能性的球員，聯盟內幾乎所有球隊都會需要他，以至於拓荒者可以取得
不錯的資產回報。這就是我認為Hart幾乎是一定會被交易出去的理由。
"There's been lots of talk of Hart, Nurk & Winslow being available on the
trade market.
But I'm wondering, of all the other guys not discussed as much, who do you
think is the one most likely to be traded that might be a surprise to the
fanbase? Watford? GP2? Nas? We've heard Dame and Ant are untouchable, Grant
and Shaedon also but little else.
Interested to hear your thoughts."
「近期有很多關於Hart、Nurkic和Winslow的乳摸。但我想知道是否有其他沒有太多討論
的球員中，有你認為最有可能被交易的球員，並會讓球迷震驚的? Watford? GP2?
Little?
因為我們已經了解小李、賽門是不動產，也包含Sharpe跟Grant，除了他們都有可能。
想聽聽看你的看法。」
The three you named at the top—Hart, Nurkic and Winslow—are the most likely
to be gone in a week, and I'd add Keon Johnson to that list, too. Not because
the organization doesn't like him—they do—but there just aren't minutes for
him in the rotation with so many other guards. He's also a former first-round
pick in just his second year in the league, meaning he has two more years
after this one on a cheap rookie contract, and has had nice moments when he's
gotten on the floor, so other teams might look at him as someone with upside
they could take a flier on.
這三位你提到的球員『Hart、Nurkic、Winslow』確實是最有可能在一週後離開的球員，
且我還會加上Keon Johnson到這個名單內，不是因為拓荒者不喜歡Keon，正因為喜歡，
但目前球隊有太多的後衛，導致Keon沒辦法獲得上場時間。他是首輪新秀且才打第二年，
且還有兩年的便宜新秀合約，場上有很不錯的高光表現，所以其他隊伍有可能評估他還有
上升空間，並願意賭他的潛力
I would also push back on there being that many "untouchable" players on the
roster. I don't think anyone not named Damian Lillard is flat-out off limits
in any kind of trade talks. The three you named, Simons, Grant and Sharpe,
are not being shopped and are extremely unlikely to be moved, but I don't
think they'd be non-starters in a truly franchise-altering deal, whatever
that may be. The previous general manager refused to even listen to any trade
offers involving C.J. McCollum for years; I don't get the sense that Cronin
has that same non-negotiable stance on anyone outside of Lillard.
其實我對球團有這麼多的"不動產"球員持相反意見，我認為除了小李之外的其他人都有
商談交易的空間，Simons、Grant和Sharpe確實沒有放上貨架，也不太可能會被交易，
但如果有能讓球隊質變的交易商談，他們會是受歡迎的人選，不管那可能是什麼提案。
多年來，前總管一直拒絕聽取任何關於CJ的報價，但我不認為克總對任何球員會有一樣的
態度，除了小李。
Will we ever see Ibou Badji minutes this year even in garbage time? I'd like
to see him out there fouling Embiid and Rudy Gobert personally. Also do you
know how long he has been playing basketball and does he speak much English
or does he have an interpreter with him?
這賽季我們還能在垃圾時間看到Ibou Badji上場嗎?我很想看他對鉛筆跟狗貝犯規。另外
想請問你知道他打籃球多久了嗎? 還有他會說英文嗎? 或是他隨身有跟一位翻譯嗎?
I wouldn't bet on seeing him anytime soon. Both of the Blazers' two-way
players—Badji and John Butler, Jr.—are viewed by the front office and
coaching staff at this point as long-term developmental projects who aren't
close to being ready to contribute yet. I asked Billups about them a couple
of months ago and he gave the impression that Butler is further along in his
development than Badji is, but neither of them are to the point yet where
they're ready to play real minutes.
我敢說不太可能會很快見到他。目前管理層及教練團隊把拓荒者兩名雙向球員Badji&
John Butler Jr.當作長期的發展專案來養成，他們倆位還沒辦法上場貢獻。幾個月前
槍西的答覆是說Butler目前的狀態比Badji來得更有進步，並且都還沒NBA Ready。
The previous guy who filled the second two-way spot, Olivier Sarr, looked
good in training camp and seemed like he was going to get actual minutes
before suffering a wrist injury that ended his Blazers tenure before it
really started. His situation was a little different because he actually had
NBA experience last season with Oklahoma City, so he was more ready to play
than either Badji or Butler are. But they decided to go the other way after
waiving Sarr, in terms of taking a home-run swing on long-term upside.
前雙向球員Olivier Sarr，訓練營表現良好，他也應該會得到上場機會，但因為手腕的
傷勢不得不結束他拓荒者球員的身分。Sarr的情況比較不同，因為他上季有在雷霆隊
打過球，所以他比Badji跟Butler都更有即戰力。但裁掉Sarr後，球團及教練組決定利用
雙向進行長期養成計畫，以求到時候會有更高的回報。
One of the helpful things to me as a reporter about the Blazers' hiring of
Mike Schmitz in the front office is that in a lot of cases, there's a public
record of what the assistant general manager of the team I cover thinks about
most prospects out there. Here's a pretty extensive scouting report on Badji
that Schmitz wrote in December of 2020, when he was still working as a draft
analyst for ESPN. He compared him to a JaVale McGee/Mitchell Robinson/Hassan
Whiteside-type of shot-blocking, rim-running center.
拓荒者新助理總管Mike Schmitz，對我這名記者很有幫助的地方就是他對大多數的新秀
都有相對應的球探報告，並公開紀錄在ESPN。當時Schmitz還在ESPN擔任選秀分析師，
他在2020年12月時有寫下一份關於Badji的球探報告(https://reurl.cc/WqedY5)。
Badji的模板是 JaVale Mcgee/Mitchell Robinson/Hassan Witeside，負責火鍋及吃餅
的中鋒類型。
Badji's personal story is one I haven't dug much into yet but plan on doing
so after the trade-deadline content machine calms down a little bit. His
background is pretty interesting from what little I know of it. He's the
first player from the relatively new NBA Africa Academy pipeline to sign an
NBA contract. (To your language question: while English is not his native
language, he does speak it.)
我目前還沒深入挖掘Badji的個人故事，但我計畫在交易大限結束後在進行了解。就我
現在所知道的小細節，他的背景非常有趣。他是一所新興的NBA非洲籃球學院的學生，
必且還是第一位簽下NBA合約的球員。
(關於語言的問題:雖然英文不是他的母語，但他是會說的。)
Last month when I was at the G League Winter Showcase in Las Vegas, I spoke
to Chaisson Allen, the head coach of the Wisconsin Herd, where he spent
training camp before catching on with the Blazers, and got a little insight
into him there. I want to do more on him later in the season. Stay tuned.
上月份G-League在拉斯維加斯有冬季表演賽，當時我有跟Wisconsin Herd的總教練
Chaisson Allen聊過Badji，在他被拓荒者簽下前，在這位教練執教下打過球，並對
Badji有一定程度的了解。我會在賽季末期間再對Badji做更多的介紹。敬請期待。
Thanks for all you do covering the team, it’s been amazing to see your
journey and always love your work. Have you heard any updates about Jody
selling the team? It feels like until new ownership is in place there is a
ceiling on what Joe can do to improve the team. If you’re ever in Japan let
me know so I can buy you lunch.
關注你真的太棒了，而且我也很喜歡你的報導，感謝你對拓荒者球團做的採訪。請問你有
關於Jody準備賣球隊的任何新消息嗎? 感覺在換新老闆之前，Jody對球團的幫助有限。
Things are still in a holding pattern there, as far as I've heard. As I wrote
in December, the Suns' recent sale at a $4 billion valuation will bump the
Blazers' price up significantly from Phil Knight's reported $2 billion offer
last June. It will take at least $3 billion to get any deal done now, with
Uncle Phil or any other buyer. The situation is still the same as I
understand it: the NBA would like for a sale to happen soon, while the
Vulcans would like to hang on until the league's new television deal hits in
2025. We'll see what happens.
據我所知這件事正處於停滯狀態。正如同我12月份寫的報導(https://reurl.cc/587qbM)
近期太陽隊以40億美金出售，這遠超過Phil Knight團隊去年6月提出的20億美金報價。
目前不論是Phil Knight或其他買家都最少需要30億美金來進行商談。NBA官方希望盡快
出售，但Vulcans希望拖到2025年新電視轉播合約開跑後再處理。我們就靜觀其變吧。
Vulcan Inc.:Paul Allen和Jody Allen在1986合夥開的公司，目前負責的項目包含拓荒者
資金來源，"Paul G. Allen Trust"(目前董事長是Jody)
PS.如果內容有誤，板友隨時指正，感謝
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 61.230.64.25 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/BLAZERS/M.1675758114.A.9C2.html
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