[資訊]日本地震造成全球經濟餘震？(中英文)
Dear all
以前對於世界村的概念沒什麼感覺
不過日本的地震造成全球經濟、供應鏈、安全的影響
突然間覺得國與國的距離變小、相互影響變大~
轉錄這期天下雜誌網路版供大家參考~
by小欣
------------------------中文內容--------------------------
日本的大地震和海嘯，造成了可能會影響全球供應鏈的經濟餘震。日本在此次災難中
的損失預估超過2000億美元，受創地區僅佔日本GDP約4.1%，但大廠的部分工廠也位於
此地，許多企業也關閉了位於該區的工廠。
電力和交通設施嚴重受創，表示日本各地都會繼續面臨供給和配送問題。分區限電
可能會持續至四月底，不但受損工廠難以修復，生產也會減緩。嚴重受損的港口
佔日本工業出口的7%，可能要數月後才能恢復運作。
傷害並非僅限於日本，而是會衝擊全球供應鏈，特別是消費電子、電信和汽車產業，
因為日本是這些產業的重要供應者；日本廠商約佔全球半導體生產的21%，也是液晶
面板相關零件的重要供應商。
地震和海嘯讓這些產業陷入混亂，亂象至少會持續整個四月，分析師亦警告道，
其影響可能會持續至數月之後。Nokia Siemens、Ericsson等無線電信設備製造商
已經準備好面臨供應吃緊的狀況，因為目前的存貨撐不過三周。
受影響最嚴重的廠商正努力向其他供應商尋求存貨，許多廠商也在大肆收購現有存貨。
震災之後，32Gbit NAND快閃記憶體的價格在一天之內上漲了17.7%，DRAM的價格也
同步上漲；分析師預估記憶體等零組件的價格會繼續上升並強烈波動。
NAND快閃記憶體供應不足，可能會使蘋果延後推出下一代iPhone，也會影響
HP、Nokia、Motorola等廠商。此外，電腦和遊戲機顯示面板的價格也在上漲。
其連鎖效應可能會導致電腦、手機、電視等使用日本零組件的消費電子商品
價格上漲；日本除了生產零組件之外，電子產品製造也佔全球約14%。
許多廠商已經在為財務衝擊作準備；不久之後應該就能感受到日本災難帶來的
經濟餘震，而且餘震可能要好一陣子才會消失。
----------------英文內容-----------------------------
Japan hardware: Global aftershocks
The economic aftershocks of the Japanese disaster are spreading to
global supply chains.
The earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan in March are creating
economic aftershocks that could affect supply chains worldwide.
For Japan itself, the total economic losses from the disaster are currently
estimated at more than US$200bn. The affected area of Japan produces
only around 4.1% of the GDP of the world's third-largest economy,
but does host some big factories for major manufacturing companies.
Numerous companies in steel, auto and electronics have shut down
their plants in the region.
The considerable damage to power and transport infrastructure means
that supply-and-distribution-problems will continue to affect the whole
country, and not just the disaster-affected northern area.
Japan's current rolling power blackouts may last until the end of April,
making it more difficult to repair damaged plants and causing general
production slowdowns. More worryingly, some 10% of the country's
electricity-generation capacity may be out of commission for up to
a few months, affecting factory output. The damage to transport
infrastructure such as roads and ports will also take its toll.
Ports handling 7% of Japan's industrial output, including six
international ports in Japan's north, are badly damaged and could be
non-functional for months. Companies are already worried.
Due to the supply disruptions, Canon has stopped production at a large
plant in southern Japan, while Nikon has suspended work at its precision
equipment plants in north Japan, which could cause parts shortages
at its factories closer to Tokyo.
But the damage will not be limited to Japan alone.
It will impact global supply chains, especially in the consumer
electronics, telecoms and automotive sectors, since Japan is a major
supplier to these industries worldwide. According to research firm
IHS iSuppli, Japan accounts for about 21% of the world's semiconductor
production, and chip companies based in Japan generated about US$63.8bn
in revenues in 2010. They are key players in NAND flash memory chips,
used in devices including computers, smartphones and tablets.
Led by Toshiba, Japanese companies account for about 35% of global
flash revenues.
Japan also contributes a large share of components for liquid crystal
display (LCD) panels and related products, such as glass and light-emitting
diodes, which are now affected. Toshiba said it would close an assembly
line in Japan making small LCDs for a month, although another such Japanese
plant was undamaged. These two Toshiba factories account for about 5%
of the global small LCD display market. Japan is also the world's
biggest supplier of silicon used to make semiconductor chips,
and companies including NEC, Panasonic and Fujitsu have stopped
production and reported damage to some factories.
Disarray
The disaster has thrown all these industries into disarray,
particularly chipmaking, since facilities are particularly sensitive
to vibration, dust and power fluctuations. Toshiba says it has resumed
operations at a chip plant in the quake-struck Iwate Prefecture but that
it fears interruptions from damage to factories and transport
infrastructure. US chipmaker Texas Instruments has reported
substantial problems at its Japanese manufacturing sites,
while AU Optronics, Taiwan's biggest LCD supplier, has
shut its solar-wafer production plant in Sendai.
The current disruptions will likely last at least through April and
analysts warn that this could lead to problems for months afterwards.
Customers for chips in a range of industries will suffer.
Manufacturers of wireless telecoms equipment, such as
Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens, Ericsson, Huawei and ZTE, are already
preparing for a supply squeeze, since current inventories will not last
more than three weeks. Analysts say that the production and
availability of computers, smartphones and tablet devices
could also suffer. Companies in numerous end-user industries were
already facing shortages over the past year, given strong demand,
and the disaster could constrain the entire supply chain over the
next quarter.
Most affected companies are working overtime to procure components
from other suppliers and many are buying up available stock.
Computer maker Acer Taiwan says that the PC industry's supply chain
will remain intact for another three months but that companies are
stockpiling inventories of DRAMs and LCD panels, sending prices up.
According to Acer, 90% of silicon wafers and adhesives used in LCD panel
assembly are produced by Japan-based companies Sony and Hitachi,
and are already in short supply. Prices
for both consumers and user industries could rise.
Indeed, chip prices have already risen. Following the disaster,
the price of the 32-gigabit NAND flash chip, used widely in
smartphones and tablets, jumped by 17.7% in one day, while spot
prices in China for DRAM chips, mostly used in PCs, have also risen,
according to DRAMeXchange, Asia's biggest spot market for chips.
Analysts say they expect prices for memory chips and other components
to rise further and swing sharply, since even small decreases in
production could send prices soaring. The short
supply of NAND flash memory could potentially delay the release
of Apple's next-generation iPhone and affect other companies,
including HP, Nokia and Motorola. Apart from chips, the prices of
display panels for computers and game consoles are also rising.
In a chain reaction, the price of consumer electronic goods
using Japanese components, such as computers, mobile phones,
televisions and DVDs, could rise across the world. Japanese
electronics are also used in solar panels and cars. Apart from
producing components, Japan also accounts for about 14% of global
electronics manufacturing itself. Several Japanese companies in
both components and electronics manufacturing, including Sony,
Panasonic, Fujitsu, Casio and Toshiba, have closed plants and slowed
production. Consumer electronics major Sony has stopped operations
at six electronic-components manufacturing plants in Fukushima
and Miyazaki, which will affect the availability of DVDs and batteries,
particularly for notebook PCs.
出處：http://english.cw.com.tw/article.do?action=show&id=12714
Given all this, dozens of companies are bracing for possible financial shocks. Texas Instruments used to make about 10% of its 2010 revenues from its factory in Miho, Japan, which has now suffered substantial damage. Although Ericsson said its first-quarter sales would not be materially affected, European chipmaker STMicro has forecast a risk to first- and second-quarter revenues. Computer maker Lenovo says that it is worried about the impact in the next quarter from shortage of components like
batteries, although it expects little short-term setback. The economic aftershocks of the Japanese disaster are likely to be felt for some time to come.
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03/29 10:44, , 1F
03/29 10:44, 1F