[轉錄] 千場研究 XVM 勝率預測之準確性
先說結論:XVM 勝率預測其實不準
作者:Spitfeuer117(歐服)
原文:
http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/468409-a-1000-battle-study-on-xvm-win-chance-accuracy/
縮:http://goo.gl/QZAgDB
1000 場中,598 勝,390 敗,12 和;勝率預測分佈如下
http://goo.gl/4IhytX
只計入場數高於 20 的勝率預測;用實際勝率對預測勝率作圖可得
http://goo.gl/V4kNzQ
實際勝率要比 XVM 預測的要更為極端:
XVM 說有六成,其實接近七成五
XVM 說有四成,其實只剩二成五
文中試用常態分佈模型改善 XVM 勝率預測之算式,效果似乎不錯:
http://goo.gl/rqcm8E
(可是線性回歸之R^2只有 0.77,不是『很』準…)
個人覺得一開始的勝率看看就好,到了中場才會比較明朗
玩遊戲還平添壓力似乎有點本末倒置;只要打得問心無愧,每場都是 GG
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※ 編輯: WillieHuang (36.235.230.249), 01/27/2015 10:28:16
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統計大家都愛用,因為真好用
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看在哪個領域 XD
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WR 45~55% 的區間還可接受
其實這研究並未計入預期心理所造成的偏差:
若許多人都裝有 XVM;看到這場預計勝率只有40%,甚至出現3字頭,會有多少人
剛開場就先放棄一半?看見對面紫氣逼人,覺得輸掉正常,撿撿肉就好?
說不定原本 XVM 的算式其實很準;但是預言公開後,這預言就不准了
※ 編輯: WillieHuang (36.235.230.249), 01/27/2015 13:17:34
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個人碰過的極端值:83% 和 12%
https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8585/16379214625_c7be6a065e_o.jpg
足球模式碰過 95% 的 www
※ 編輯: WillieHuang (36.235.235.36), 01/27/2015 17:15:21
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