[颱風] 99W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者 (卡卡達達)時間2月前 (2025/09/16 14:18), 2月前編輯推噓24(24推 0噓 14→)
留言38則, 20人參與, 2月前最新討論串1/1
WTPN21 PGTW 160330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 124.8E TO 19.4N 120.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 125.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION. A 152219Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS BROAD, FRAGMENTED BANDING. A RECENT 160106Z ASCAT-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GRADIENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT INTENSIFICATION WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 170330Z.// NNNN https://i.meee.com.tw/hnHiSx4.gif
-- GFS https://i.meee.com.tw/9BlnjDl.png
ECMWF https://i.meee.com.tw/bOP9hHe.png
-- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.127.163.9 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1758003518.A.C48.html ※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 09/16/2025 14:20:40
推
09/16 14:21, 2月前 , 1F
來了?
09/16 14:21, 1F
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09/16 14:34, 2月前 , 2F
不是這個
09/16 14:34, 2F
推
09/16 14:38, 2月前 , 3F
不是這個，預計23號影響的那個還沒形成。
09/16 14:38, 3F
推
09/16 14:52, 2月前 , 4F
...Orz
09/16 14:52, 4F
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09/16 14:55, 2月前 , 5F
雜魚？
09/16 14:55, 5F
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09/16 14:57, 2月前 , 6F
還好啦 米塔這名字沒什麼記憶點 樺加沙聽起來比較
09/16 14:57, 6F
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09/16 14:57, 2月前 , 7F
有趣
09/16 14:57, 7F
推
09/16 15:00, 2月前 , 8F
又要帶來下沉氣流了，麻煩
09/16 15:00, 8F
推
09/16 15:33, 2月前 , 9F
北部又要吃下沉了 生雞蛋的沒有放雞屎的有?
09/16 15:33, 9F
推
09/16 15:37, 2月前 , 10F
未看先猜會被戲稱為「畫袈裟」或是「畫家殺」之類
09/16 15:37, 10F
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09/16 15:37, 2月前 , 11F
的！XDD
09/16 15:37, 11F
推
09/16 15:46, 2月前 , 12F
卡達～
09/16 15:46, 12F
推
09/16 16:34, 2月前 , 13F
下週那隻才是
09/16 16:34, 13F
推
09/16 17:10, 2月前 , 14F
應該90W才是
09/16 17:10, 14F
推
09/16 17:13, 2月前 , 15F
AI猜的到23嗎？
09/16 17:13, 15F
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09/16 17:13, 2月前 , 16F
之後
09/16 17:13, 16F
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09/16 17:33, 2月前 , 17F
又要熱了
09/16 17:33, 17F
推
09/16 17:38, 2月前 , 18F
下週那顆不知道強度到哪
09/16 17:38, 18F
推
09/16 19:46, 2月前 , 19F
不知道未來的樺加沙颱風有沒有可能偏北登陸台灣？
09/16 19:46, 19F
推
09/16 20:11, 2月前 , 20F
目前預報還是通過巴士海峽機率較高，繼續多看幾報囉
09/16 20:11, 20F
推
09/16 20:18, 2月前 , 21F
今年的南部到底是…
09/16 20:18, 21F
推
09/16 20:52, 2月前 , 22F
目前下週23、24左右EC、GFS都算一致巴海通過
09/16 20:52, 22F
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09/16 20:59, 2月前 , 23F
依舊是固定苦主 不過GFS後續依舊一連串的餅
09/16 20:59, 23F
推
09/16 21:09, 2月前 , 24F
目前下週23、24左右EC、GFS都算一致巴海通過<<<這
09/16 21:09, 24F
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09/16 21:09, 2月前 , 25F
個是指最有可能發陸警的那顆嗎
09/16 21:09, 25F
推
09/16 21:10, 2月前 , 26F
回樓上 是
09/16 21:10, 26F
推
09/16 21:23, 2月前 , 27F
感謝感謝
09/16 21:23, 27F
推
09/16 21:28, 2月前 , 28F
了解，應該還有修正路徑的機會
09/16 21:28, 28F
推
09/16 21:30, 2月前 , 29F
假如強度夠強，目前看起來南部是有機會陸警
09/16 21:30, 29F
推
09/16 23:20, 2月前 , 30F
但強度強及範圍大的話，不排除有把高壓往上頂而北
09/16 23:20, 30F
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09/16 23:20, 2月前 , 31F
偏的可能性吧！
09/16 23:20, 31F
推
09/16 23:36, 2月前 , 32F
偏北看可以多北，越強越北嗎
09/16 23:36, 32F
推
09/17 01:19, 2月前 , 33F
09/17 01:19, 33F
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09/17 01:20, 2月前 , 34F
米塔快生成了
09/17 01:20, 34F
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09/17 01:21, 2月前 , 35F
09/17 01:21, 35F
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09/17 01:21, 2月前 , 36F
但是後面這個......
09/17 01:21, 36F
推
09/17 09:58, 2月前 , 37F
看WINDY EC的路徑...快到台灣時被高壓往下壓的意
09/17 09:58, 37F
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09/17 09:58, 2月前 , 38F
思嗎
09/17 09:58, 38F
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文章代碼(AID): #1eoG4-n8 (TY_Research)