[颱風] 01C 艾歐娜中太連續兩年破蛋

看板TY_Research作者kadar (卡卡達達)時間4月前 (2025/07/28 10:34)推噓7(7推 0噓 4→)

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MXWD=32.4KTS 【升格報+預測資料】 655 WTPA41 PHFO 280231 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Iona Discussion Number 4 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Jul 27 2025 A strong burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops below -80C developed over the low-level center of the tropical cyclone well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands earlier this morning into the early afternoon. This activity has recently subsided, but the satellite presentation has improved since the previous advisory, with well-defined banding structures now evident. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC all came in at 2.5/35 knots, while the objective intensity estimates ranged from 35 to 42 knots. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to, perhaps a conservative 35 knots, making Iona the first named storm of the season in the central Pacific. Tropical Storm Iona is moving westward at 270/9 knots. This general westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the system moves along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. By Tuesday night or Wednesday, Iona is expected to increase its forward speed due to a strengthening low-to-mid-level ridge north of the system. The track forecast closely follows a blend of the FSSE and HCCA consensus guidance and is very close to the track from the previous advisory. Confidence remains high that Iona will stay well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. The environment appears conducive to further intensification over the next day or so, as Iona remains over warm waters around 28C, with adequate mid-level moisture and very light vertical wind shear. As a result, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, with the cyclone expected to near hurricane strength by Monday night or Tuesday. However, by Tuesday night, Iona will begin to move over slightly cooler waters, begin to feel the influence of increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and start to entrain drier mid-level air. This is expected to result in steady weakening, with the cyclone likely becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Day 5 and potentially weakening into a trough by that time. The intensity forecast has been raised from the previous advisory, following the latest trends in the intensity guidance, and is best aligned with the FSSE and HCCA consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 10.9N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 11.0N 149.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 11.0N 151.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 11.0N 153.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 11.1N 156.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 11.5N 159.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 12.1N 162.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 13.0N 170.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 14.4N 177.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC) https://i.meee.com.tw/pGIfNFR.png

【衛星定位分析】 -- TXPN41 PHFO 272340 TCSNP1 CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2330 UTC SUN JUL 27 2025 A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C CP012025 B. 27/2330Z C. 11.0N D. 147.8W E. GOES-18 F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS G. VIS/IR/EIR H. REMARKS...0.45 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE AT 2.5. FT BASED ON DT. I. ADDL POSITIONS $$ KINO -- TPPZ01 PGTW 272358 A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (SE OF HILO) B. 27/2300Z C. 10.89N D. 147.72W E. SIX/GOES18 F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/21HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. IRREGULAR CDO OF 85NM IN DIAMETER YIELDS A CF OF 2.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE NEVAREZ -- TXPN26 KNES 280025 TCSCNP A. 01C (NONAME) B. 28/0000Z C. 11.0N D. 147.7W E. THREE/GOES-W F. T2.5/2.5 G. IR/EIR/VIS H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 2.0. THE PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...GATLING 【系集路徑預報】 -- GFS https://i.meee.com.tw/2OYMtNl.png

ECMWF https://i.meee.com.tw/X5KXX5e.png

谷歌 https://i.meee.com.tw/fxUQ1lT.png

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