天氣小觀:從台灣以南偏到台灣以北的泰利颱風
天氣小觀:從台灣以南偏到台灣以北的泰利颱風
泰利颱風的路徑讓所有天氣、模式預報等跌破眼鏡,
原先預測往台灣以南通過變成台灣以北通過,
究竟是何原因呢?
意外之一:
泰利颱風形成的大環境條件不差,甚至有滿滿的大熱水平台,
但本身最大弱勢在於結構整合,這也是今年許多颱風出現的問題,
東風波撞進季風槽,形成大季風環流,大季風環流陸續出現兩個擾動。
東北擾動誕生泰利颱風,無法整合西南擾動,西南擾動已逐漸發展為熱帶性低氣壓21W,
由於兩氣旋獨立發展,泰利颱風的偏南風很明顯,不斷給予泰利颱風偏北的力量,
這時就要看北側太平洋高壓壓制的偏西分量有多大,大一點就偏西北西,
然而,
意外之二:
時序到了秋天季節,北方短波槽的活動比原先預報來的活躍,
加上雙擾動結合的大季風環流,挑戰太平洋高壓的勢力場,
太平洋高壓壓制泰利颱風偏西分量不如預期,讓泰利颱風不斷飄向西北移動。
因此,泰利颱風轉北分量大增,各大預報不斷北修,
最新模式預報認為,
由於泰利颱風移動速度快,僅管北方短波槽沒有切斷太平洋高壓,
但泰利颱風卻因為過度偏北,得已趁勢鑽進太平洋高壓的鞍部場,
這也是為何秋天颱風總是很難預報,
同屬夏季系統的颱風,在秋天總是叛逆。
這種戲劇化的演出,也是秋天經常上演的戲碼。
於是,最後泰利颱風,成功的讓太平洋高壓分裂。
然後等待新的短波槽牽引轉往東北,太平洋高壓重新合併導引21W往西。
但無論如何,泰利颱風對北台灣或台北的威脅讓存在,目前仍不能否定,
當然,如果再偏北,影響會小很多,仍需持續觀察一陣子。
(以上供參囉)
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