[討論] EC有反應 96W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)時間11年前 (2014/09/17 07:51)推噓21(21推 0噓 9→)

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WTPN21 PGTW 162000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 137.0E TO 17.7N 131.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 137.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF TURNING. AN 161716Z AMSU-B AND A 161605Z GCOM IMAGE DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LLCC FOR AN OVERALL POSITIVE AFFECT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH GOOD DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 172000Z.// NNNN http://ppt.cc/UdmD EC系集預測轉向前期副高西伸後遇到副高受槽打擊東退(? 轉向點有可能極為靠近台灣陸地離散程度很大變數很多還要繼續追蹤下去不過套個沒根據的經驗多數侵台颱風都是有變數很大開始的... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.192.225.38 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1410911517.A.904.html

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ICEFTP

09/17 07:55, , 1^F

09/17 07:55, 1^F

※ 編輯: logdog (123.192.225.38), 09/17/2014 07:56:30

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ben108472

09/17 08:15, , 2^F

09/17 08:15, 2^F

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jayemshow

09/17 08:51, , 3^F