[颱風] 1217杰拉華#1
最新強度狀況
美:140kts Cat.5 Super Typhoon
中:62m/s 超強颱風
日:110kts 猛烈颱風
台:55m/s 強烈颱風
駛流狀況
杰拉華目前有正東側東環太平洋高壓影響
受力往正北
西環高壓也逐漸在西北側加大對杰拉華的影響
受力往西南
總和受力抵銷後 合力應是往西北
偏西的分量會慢慢明顯
西風槽底於130E以西的部份
緯度為36~37N左右
被香港附近的西環高壓頂者
直直的向東吹
過了130E以東後
槽底轉直南下到23N附近
這個槽會影響到艾維尼把她帶走
至於杰拉華就要看看中秋的槽
槽底能不能鉤到杰拉華了
目前看來兩大陣營在PK
台美站在同一陣線
認為杰拉華會被槽線提早勾走
而日中則認為杰拉華不被勾到
直接撲向台灣
觀察數值仍像擲茭搖擺不定
連72HR的預測誤差圈都開始爆肥增大
顯示還沒穩定
強度倒是讓人又高潮了一下
上次連兩個暴發戶都是SUPER TYPHOON
記憶中要追到芭瑪跟米勒了
中心溫度比周圍高出11-12攝氏度
雖不及三巴的+18攝氏度
也算是很嗆的了
現在還是要等各大機構逐漸得到共識
才好判斷颱風對台灣的影響程度了
個人認為可能會走CWB和JMA的平均路線
北上至與那國島後被槽線勾走
如果是這樣可能全台都有狂風暴雨的機會
西環高壓的位置與形狀
應該會是這個颱風未來走向的關鍵
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◆ From: 123.192.193.59
※ 編輯: logdog 來自: 123.192.193.59 (09/25 22:16)
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還有 45 則推文
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