[討論] 天氣小觀:杰拉華颱風重點 侵台?秋颱?
<以下盡量淺白說明>
對流層高空層(8000公尺高空)
象徵冬季系統的西風噴流持續強烈地與夏季系統南亞高壓對峙,
西風噴流在東海往南壓,在東海一帶生波,
南亞高壓強烈地與北方西風噴流對峙,
使得南亞高壓北側的西風增強,並增強南亞高壓順時針旋轉的負渦度,
南亞高壓在自己地盤(中南半島北方)增強,且往下影響到對流層中層(5000公尺高空),
台灣到中南半島上的大氣中層出現反氣旋高壓系統,也使太平洋高壓脊西伸接合,
因此前兩天台灣天氣大致良好炎熱。
但是今天起大氣中層太平洋高壓已經開始斷裂颱風,杰拉華颱風走向趨勢將轉北。
雖然在大氣中低層(3000公尺高空),太平洋高壓脊尚延伸到台灣至香港還未斷裂,
但是很快受到太平洋高壓在中層斷裂以及北方槽線下探和南壓,
因此也即將斷裂,太平洋高壓斷裂後的西側小單體會往西減弱或併入中層的反氣旋高壓。
模式預報西風噴流在東海生波,東海西風槽牽引杰拉華往北,
但因西風槽偏東且往東移,因此杰拉華颱風北上至台灣東南方後,
轉由台灣到中南半島上大氣中層的反氣旋高壓系統接手,使杰拉華颱風轉由偏西移動。
GFS預報:直接偏西北侵襲台灣南部。
NGP/EC預報:直接偏西侵襲呂宋島。
CWB等其他預報:北上至呂宋島東方,觀察中。
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 42.75.3.47
推
09/22 09:49, , 1F
09/22 09:49, 1F
推
09/22 09:52, , 2F
09/22 09:52, 2F
推
09/22 09:56, , 3F
09/22 09:56, 3F
→
09/22 09:59, , 4F
09/22 09:59, 4F
推
09/22 10:01, , 5F
09/22 10:01, 5F
推
09/22 10:04, , 6F
09/22 10:04, 6F
推
09/22 10:16, , 7F
09/22 10:16, 7F
→
09/22 10:17, , 8F
09/22 10:17, 8F
推
09/22 10:24, , 9F
09/22 10:24, 9F
→
09/22 10:25, , 10F
09/22 10:25, 10F
→
09/22 10:25, , 11F
09/22 10:25, 11F
推
09/22 10:45, , 12F
09/22 10:45, 12F
推
09/22 10:52, , 13F
09/22 10:52, 13F
推
09/22 10:53, , 14F
09/22 10:53, 14F
→
09/22 10:54, , 15F
09/22 10:54, 15F
推
09/22 11:00, , 16F
09/22 11:00, 16F
推
09/22 11:04, , 17F
09/22 11:04, 17F
推
09/22 12:47, , 18F
09/22 12:47, 18F
推
09/22 13:48, , 19F
09/22 13:48, 19F
→
09/22 13:50, , 20F
09/22 13:50, 20F
剛才看了NGP和GFS,按照他們預報,西太平洋要熱鬧了
先是杰拉華東南側環流加強了西風與熱帶東風輻合
形成93W,緊接著遠方的東風波又來了,再增添新的颱風
※ 編輯: daron 來自: 114.45.67.199 (09/22 14:14)
推
09/22 14:32, , 21F
09/22 14:32, 21F
推
09/22 14:49, , 22F
09/22 14:49, 22F
推
09/22 15:36, , 23F
09/22 15:36, 23F
推
09/22 15:40, , 24F
09/22 15:40, 24F
推
09/22 16:54, , 25F
09/22 16:54, 25F
→
09/22 17:42, , 26F
09/22 17:42, 26F
推
09/22 17:46, , 27F
09/22 17:46, 27F
推
09/22 18:43, , 28F
09/22 18:43, 28F
→
09/22 18:44, , 29F
09/22 18:44, 29F
推
09/22 19:36, , 30F
09/22 19:36, 30F
推
09/22 19:46, , 31F
09/22 19:46, 31F
推
09/22 19:53, , 32F
09/22 19:53, 32F
→
09/22 19:54, , 33F
09/22 19:54, 33F
推
09/22 20:10, , 34F
09/22 20:10, 34F
推
09/22 20:25, , 35F
09/22 20:25, 35F
→
09/22 20:37, , 36F
09/22 20:37, 36F
推
09/22 21:04, , 37F
09/22 21:04, 37F
推
09/22 21:08, , 38F
09/22 21:08, 38F
→
09/22 22:13, , 39F
09/22 22:13, 39F
推
09/22 22:42, , 40F
09/22 22:42, 40F
推
09/22 22:44, , 41F
09/22 22:44, 41F
推
09/22 22:48, , 42F
09/22 22:48, 42F
推
09/22 22:55, , 43F
09/22 22:55, 43F
推
09/22 23:00, , 44F
09/22 23:00, 44F
推
09/23 00:06, , 45F
09/23 00:06, 45F
推
09/23 00:28, , 46F
09/23 00:28, 46F
→
09/23 00:29, , 47F
09/23 00:29, 47F
推
09/23 00:50, , 48F
09/23 00:50, 48F
→
09/23 01:33, , 49F
09/23 01:33, 49F
推
09/23 01:41, , 50F
09/23 01:41, 50F
→
09/23 01:48, , 51F
09/23 01:48, 51F
推
09/23 07:16, , 52F
09/23 07:16, 52F
推
09/23 07:25, , 53F
09/23 07:25, 53F
推
09/23 07:27, , 54F
09/23 07:27, 54F
推
09/23 07:30, , 55F
09/23 07:30, 55F
推
09/23 09:12, , 56F
09/23 09:12, 56F
推
09/23 09:19, , 57F
09/23 09:19, 57F
推
09/23 09:50, , 58F
09/23 09:50, 58F
推
09/23 10:14, , 59F
09/23 10:14, 59F
推
09/23 11:03, , 60F
09/23 11:03, 60F
推
09/23 11:06, , 61F
09/23 11:06, 61F
推
09/23 11:37, , 62F
09/23 11:37, 62F
推
09/23 11:52, , 63F
09/23 11:52, 63F
推
09/23 12:02, , 64F
09/23 12:02, 64F
→
09/23 12:14, , 65F
09/23 12:14, 65F
推
09/23 13:28, , 66F
09/23 13:28, 66F
推
09/23 14:01, , 67F
09/23 14:01, 67F
→
09/23 14:01, , 68F
09/23 14:01, 68F
推
09/23 14:02, , 69F
09/23 14:02, 69F
推
09/23 14:02, , 70F
09/23 14:02, 70F
推
09/23 14:04, , 71F
09/23 14:04, 71F
推
09/23 14:05, , 72F
09/23 14:05, 72F
推
09/23 14:53, , 73F
09/23 14:53, 73F