[情報] 96w TCFA GW

看板TY_Research作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)時間13年前 (2012/08/19 07:18)推噓9(9推 0噓 3→)

留言12則, 7人參與討論串1/1

WTPN21 PGTW 181800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS OF 17.4N 124.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 124.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE EIR, ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SSMIS IMAGES (180929Z AND 180933Z) SHOW A NOTICEABLE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE TROPICAL UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS CAN BE SEEN A FEW DEGREES NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANOTHER LARGER TUTT CELL RESIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST, SOUTH OF JAPAN. THIS COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CAUSING CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE SMALLER TUTT CELLS SHOULD TRACK OFF TO THE WEST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BECOME CONNECTED TO THE LARGER TUTT CELL WHICH RESIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. CURRENTLY, AN 181334Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE FIELD OF 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EQUATORWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A POLEWARD TURN THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION, ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191800Z.// NNNN 老J好像有說看的到不錯的LLCC(WELL-DEFINED) 高層的流出會因為接上TUTT而有所改善垂直風切變為弱這些都是他升HIGH的理由中心近似滯留中 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.192.212.133

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lboevceky

08/19 07:39, , 1^F

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lisy1991516

08/19 07:43, , 2^F

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keroromoa

08/19 07:53, , 3^F

08/19 07:53, 3^F