[情報] 05W GW

看板TY_Research作者 (終於回到台灣了)時間12年前 (2012/06/11 11:11), 編輯推噓24(24039)
留言63則, 7人參與, 最新討論串1/1
GALE WARNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08.2N 146.5E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY. 熱帯低気圧 平成24年06月11日10時25分 発表 <11日09時の実況> 大きさ - 強さ - 熱帯低気圧 存在地域 カロリン諸島の東北東約270km 中心位置 北緯 8度10分(8.2度) 東経 146度30分(146.5度) 進行方向、速さ 西 ゆっくり 中心気圧 1008hPa 中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt) 最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt) <12日09時の予報> 強さ - 存在地域 カロリン諸島の北約270km 予報円の中心 北緯 9度40分(9.7度) 東経 143度40分(143.7度) 進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(8kt) 中心気圧 1002hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt) 最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt) 予報円の半径 220km(120NM) http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html ------------------------------------------------------ http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0512.gif
WTPN31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 8.4N 146.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 146.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 9.1N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 9.7N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 10.1N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 10.7N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 11.9N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.4N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.4N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 146.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. // NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 211.74.78.137

06/11 12:20, , 1F
看來對台灣沒有直接影響
06/11 12:20, 1F

06/11 12:59, , 2F
很快就北上了 @@"
06/11 12:59, 2F

06/11 19:26, , 3F
06/11 19:26, 3F

06/11 19:27, , 4F
數值認為北轉較快
06/11 19:27, 4F

06/11 19:34, , 5F
老J的報文指出 未來路徑和強度的不確定很大
06/11 19:34, 5F

06/11 19:36, , 6F
另外還有一個可能的中心在 9.5N 147.0E
06/11 19:36, 6F

06/11 19:37, , 7F
而且對目前的中心定位也不是非常有信心XD
06/11 19:37, 7F

06/11 19:38, , 8F
未來的變數還不小喔...
06/11 19:38, 8F

06/11 20:14, , 9F
EC則是完全不看好發展XD
06/11 20:14, 9F

06/11 20:45, , 10F
中心有偏南移動的情況出現
06/11 20:45, 10F

06/11 21:19, , 11F
數值模式有愈來愈西修的跡象 代表這幾天數值完全低估
06/11 21:19, 11F

06/11 21:21, , 12F
(未來)高壓強度 照這樣修下去 可能會比瑪娃還靠近
06/11 21:21, 12F

06/11 21:21, , 13F
台灣 換言之 有可能是今年第一個颱風警報
06/11 21:21, 13F

06/11 21:27, , 14F
感覺螺旋性良好 但結構實在是有點差
06/11 21:27, 14F

06/11 21:28, , 15F
不過還有好幾天能發展 海溫也還稱得住
06/11 21:28, 15F

06/11 21:28, , 16F
再往西走一些水氣供應也會比較足夠
06/11 21:28, 16F

06/11 21:43, , 17F
GFS確實西修了一點 http://i.imgur.com/F5Cq1.png
06/11 21:43, 17F

06/11 21:44, , 18F
05W正在爆對流中~
06/11 21:44, 18F

06/11 21:49, , 19F
現在才發現大氣版破200人 是因為西南氣流大豪雨??
06/11 21:49, 19F

06/11 21:59, , 20F
還有鋒面駕到~ 今天任伯伯預測05W大概禮拜五會到菲東
06/11 21:59, 20F

06/11 22:02, , 21F
這禮拜可能會一直下雨了~
06/11 22:02, 21F

06/11 22:10, , 22F
這是今晚用TCFS模擬的結果
06/11 22:10, 22F

06/11 22:10, , 23F

06/11 22:11, , 24F
TCFS V1.00(白線)的預測看起來有點問題 所以無視好了
06/11 22:11, 24F

06/11 22:12, , 25F
微東修強度沒變
06/11 22:12, 25F

06/11 22:12, , 26F
TCFS S+ 認為05W轉向點會在126~127E附近 巔峰時氣壓
06/11 22:12, 26F

06/11 22:12, , 27F
988hPa
06/11 22:12, 27F

06/11 22:13, , 28F
小程式的話 有點神奇 等會再貼
06/11 22:13, 28F

06/11 22:15, , 29F
原則上JMA的預測路徑較偏西 命名後五日應該也是這樣
06/11 22:15, 29F

06/11 22:15, , 30F
原則上這兩三天 機構大概就是東修一點西修一點這樣
06/11 22:15, 30F

06/11 22:16, , 31F
數值則應該會慢慢偏西~
06/11 22:16, 31F

06/11 22:40, , 32F
這是今晚用小程式模擬的結果
06/11 22:40, 32F

06/11 22:40, , 33F

06/11 22:42, , 34F
小程式預測05W大概的轉向點在125~126E附近
06/11 22:42, 34F

06/11 22:42, , 35F
而且小程式看好05W的發展 預測巔峰強度為105KTS
06/11 22:42, 35F

06/11 22:43, , 36F
不過小程式預測05W在72小時後就會快速增強到100KTS
06/11 22:43, 36F

06/11 22:44, , 37F
以上 這點我覺得有點唬濫
06/11 22:44, 37F

06/11 22:44, , 38F
如果是5天候爬上100KTS可能還比較合理
06/11 22:44, 38F

06/11 22:48, , 39F
我怎麼覺得小程式的轉向點怪怪的XD
06/11 22:48, 39F

06/11 22:49, , 40F
我也很好奇 有點像是副高後期又西伸
06/11 22:49, 40F

06/11 22:50, , 41F
如果修正成 一路西行後到125~126E那邊轉 比較正常
06/11 22:50, 41F

06/11 22:51, , 42F
JTWC和目前所有的數值都是像a大說的 單純的拋物線
06/11 22:51, 42F

06/11 22:51, , 43F
小程式的走法是兩段式西伸~
06/11 22:51, 43F

06/11 22:52, , 44F
也就是說 小程式覺得後期副高會很強
06/11 22:52, 44F

06/11 22:53, , 45F
不過我覺得72小時後攻上105KTS的預測 才真的比較扯
06/11 22:53, 45F

06/11 22:53, , 46F
也沒說很強 真的很強就直接過來了 但應該比目前數值
06/11 22:53, 46F

06/11 22:53, , 47F
預測的還要強就對了
06/11 22:53, 47F

06/11 22:54, , 48F
但仔細看完 又覺得不是沒道理 但強度確實有點扯XDD
06/11 22:54, 48F

06/11 22:56, , 49F
但我還是覺得 未來路徑會比較像TCFS S+
06/11 22:56, 49F

06/11 22:56, , 50F
我也比較相信 TCFS S+
06/11 22:56, 50F

06/11 22:57, , 51F
小程式還有個矛盾點 要是這麼走 不太可能爆發式增強
06/11 22:57, 51F

06/11 22:59, , 52F
要是想要瞬間跳強度 往西走才有可能 水氣海溫才夠
06/11 22:59, 52F

06/11 23:00, , 53F
等一兩天後再做一次吧 可能會比較明朗一些~
06/11 23:00, 53F

06/11 23:00, , 54F
所以小程式的意思是 往西走會更強囉XD (強颱? CAT.4?
06/11 23:00, 54F

06/11 23:01, , 55F
是阿 目前還在有點遠洋的地方
06/11 23:01, 55F

06/11 23:01, , 56F
我認為要是走慢點 不是沒機會XD 但要看高壓臉色~
06/11 23:01, 56F

06/11 23:18, , 57F
felix從命明道cat.5 好像也是72小時@@
06/11 23:18, 57F

06/11 23:44, , 58F
05W對流爆上來了 看來正在努力拼升格~
06/11 23:44, 58F

06/12 02:46, , 59F
06/12 02:46, 59F

06/12 02:46, , 60F
數值持續西修 改成台灣東部近海北上 再修下去就是
06/12 02:46, 60F

06/12 02:47, , 61F
登陸台灣路徑了 再加上可發展時間長 強度應該不會太
06/12 02:47, 61F

06/12 02:48, , 62F
弱 不知道這次台灣能不能閃的掉
06/12 02:48, 62F

06/12 02:51, , 63F
梅雨完接颱風......
06/12 02:51, 63F
文章代碼(AID): #1FrM7rAI (TY_Research)