[情報] 19w 形成 RSMC TOKYO:GW

看板TY_Research作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)時間14年前 (2011/09/15 07:34)推噓3(3推 0噓 0→)

留言3則, 3人參與討論串1/1

WTPN32 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141421ZSEP2011// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 154.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 154.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 22.8N 154.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.0N 153.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 25.0N 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 26.2N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 29.8N 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 33.3N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 37.3N 147.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 154.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED UNDER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE, PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST- NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A 141550Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE AMSR-E IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 141026Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WINDS AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. TD 19W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CREATED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 160E. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR TAU 24 AS THE STR BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE EAST OF JAPAN AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO JAPAN. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED (NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, GFS) BUT IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY DUE TO GENERALLY MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141421Z SEP 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 141430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN 相比之下這之命運比ROKE順遂沒意外的話明天應該會順利升格這隻一路向北扮演阻擋高壓的重要角色為西太平洋戰局投下變數對ROKE的路徑也扮著關鍵角色今年西太平洋真的超精采動不動就搞這種詭橘的場面挖坑給機構跳今年被西太平洋打臉的次數還蠻多的XD 只有CWB還算站的比較穩還有就是令人驚艷的HKO(往年好像都出色?) 這次又是考驗機構的時候了XD -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.192.212.133

推

cuteman0725

09/15 07:39, , 1^F

09/15 07:39, 1^F

推

muching

09/15 07:48, , 2^F

09/15 07:48, 2^F

推

TheWho

09/20 15:01, , 3^F

09/20 15:01, 3^F

‣ 返回看板[ TY_Research ] 大氣

‣ 更多 logdog 的文章

文章代碼(AID): #1ESJeIy2 (TY_Research)