[情報] 04W形成

看板TY_Research作者tytony (混沌的大氣)時間15年前 (2010/07/18 18:58)推噓9(9推 0噓 0→)

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JTWC路徑圖 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/wp042010.gif

180900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 120.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180513Z AMSR-E 89H IMAGE INDICATED A WELL- DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AMSR-E AND 172238Z TRMM IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 180148Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO WBAR AND GFS, HOWEVER, UKMO, NOGAPS AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS SUPPORT THE CURRENT TRACK. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180321Z JUL 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 180330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.245.236

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volcom

07/18 20:44, , 1^F

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ikaridon

07/18 22:21, , 2^F

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lyisao

07/18 23:33, , 3^F

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