[情報] Typhoon Choi-Wan

看板TY_Research作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)時間16年前 (2009/09/14 09:03)推噓6(6推 0噓 7→)

留言13則, 6人參與討論串1/1

TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 008 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 148.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 148.5E 132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 148.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH VAST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A FULLY-DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. TY CHOI-WAN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTWARD-BUILT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE MID- LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH JAPAN (WHICH IS DIGGING SOUTH A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED) WEAKENS THE STR ENOUGH TO ENABLE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA WILL WEAKEN THE STR ENOUGH TO ENABLE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE DEGREE OF AND TIMING OF RECURVATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BEFORE TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOTION AS THE 131200Z MINAMITORISHIMA (RJAM) UPPER-LEVEL SOUNDING STILL INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE CURRENT POSITION DOES NOT REFLECT THE RECENTLY-AQUIRED 131614Z AMSRE IMAGE WHICH INDICATES THAT TY 15W IS CLOSER TO 15.4N 148.5, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND RJTD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// JTWC預測圖 http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1509.gif

IR雲圖 http://ppt.cc/8F_v 彩雲算是今年西太的生力軍短短一天就從命名加強至颱風 (雖然JMA沒生不過下兩爆升的可能性很大) JTWC報文中提到彩雲過去一段時間有一個快速加強期高層分析顯示系統有一個良好的輻散通道促進彩雲的中心快速整合各位從IR雲圖中可以看到中心已幾乎為成一圈一個低層風眼幾乎成形相信能擺脫今年許多颱風不能快速開眼的狀況雙J都相當看好強度 JTWC預測會來到CAT.4 下限 115KTS JMA預測會有非常強的台風副高壓目前配置在彩雲的西北方在130E-140E這個範圍彩雲目前移速相當緩慢有近似滯留的狀況但受到北邊高壓影響應該暫時還是偏西移動之後高壓邊緣的變化我也說不上來 JTWC報文中有說未來會趨向日本.... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.192.171.148 ※ 編輯: logdog 來自: 123.192.171.148 (09/14 09:04) ※ 編輯: logdog 來自: 123.192.171.148 (09/14 09:04)

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youngscott

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tcytc

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