[情報] 颶風比爾 #23
...POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL REMAINS ON TRACK...
...強烈的颶風比爾依舊在路徑上...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 210248
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
THE LARGE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE THIS EVENING REPORTED A PEAK BELIEVABLE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 127 KT. ALTHOUGH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE
REPORTED...THE METEOROLOGISTS ON THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT CONSIDER
THOSE HIGHER WINDS TO BE VALID. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...SOME COOLING OF THE SSTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE HURRICANE NEARS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO COOL MORE RAPIDLY AROUND THAT TIME...AND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY SOON THEREAFTER. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE
衛星顯示了比爾在今晚有些改變.大型風眼依然非常明顯...然而風眼周邊的雲頂
在過去幾小時來許些變溫. 本署偵查機在今晚已對颶風核心取樣,報告可信的尖值
一二七節飛航高度風. 儘管有更強的風力被報告...機上的氣象學家不認為這些更強
的風力是可信的. 德沃夏克資料T數已稍微下降. 根據所有的資料...初始強度維持在
一一零節.環境因素被預期在接下來二十四小時繼續維持有利於許些增強. 之後...
由SHIPS模型預測的一些SSTS的冷卻依舊輕微直到颶風在七十二小時時接近加拿大
海域. 無論如何...預報路徑上的SSTS將在該時段開始更加快速冷卻...之後預報風切將
非常早顯著增強. 關方風力速度預報大致上在SHIPS和LGEM指導之間.
BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/16 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH
NEW TO SAY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RECURVE AHEAD
OF THAT TROUGH THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONCE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.
比爾繼續往西北移動,三一零度/十六節. 這裡沒有太多關於路徑預報的新消息. 比爾被預
計對即將在數天內移入美國東部的強烈中緯度槽之前轉向北...之後在槽前彎曲.
新的路徑預報事實上從前一預報來沒有改變,
再次在緊奏的模型指引達成良好協議
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING...OR WILL
AFFECT...A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
由此颶風產生的大浪在接下來數日裡正影響...或是將影響...大部分的西北大西洋海岸地
區. 這些浪將有可能造成極端危險的湧浪和致命的急渦.
更詳細的細節請查詢由你附近的地方氣象部門發佈的公告
DATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION CONDUCTED BY
NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ASSIMILATED INTO THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.
在今晚由本署和空軍備役飛機發起的概要監視任務的資料應該在世界時零時初始化的
模型運算同步化.
--
什麼嘛...這不是新阿姆斯特朗旋風噴射阿姆斯特朗砲嗎?做得挺像的呢.
它是能把台北城總統府炸掉,逼迫碼因酒開城的批踢踢的決戰武器.
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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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