[情報] 熱帶風暴漢娜 - 第四十一報
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070250
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
THE CENTER OF HANNA IS MOVING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF LONG
ISLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/26...AND HANNA IS RIGHT
ON TRACK. GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS HANNA GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIE...AND THE
NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
AND HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE AROUND CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS BY 07/0900Z.
漢娜的中心移動到長島的中西部. 初始運動推測為零五零度/二十六節...並且漢娜正在此
路徑上.
預測接下來四十八小時有逐漸的加速,當漢娜追上快速的高層西風帶...以及新的本局模型
指引IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
此外... 還沒有任何顯著的改變
AND HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE
AROUND CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS BY 07/0900Z.
HANNA'S FAST FORWARD MOTION HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO SOME OF
INCREASE IN OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. TWO UNCONFIRMED SHIP REPORTS OF 64 KT AND 60
KT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ONE OF
WHICH OCCURRED IN A RAIN BAND. HOWEVER...THESE COULD HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED GUSTS AND THE RAIN BANDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
BASED ON EARLIER DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES OF 70 KT AT 5000 TO 7000
FT THAT COVERED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF HANNA IN SEVERAL RAIN BANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE
AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITH 50-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT ANY OF THE
FORECAST TIMES.
漢娜的快速移動可能提共一些增加的由長島南邊的船隻和浮標平台觀測的表面風力
過去數小時來已收到兩個未證實的船隻報告報六十四節漢六十節...其中一個發生在雨帶
中然而...這有可能是消散中零星的陣風和雨帶.
此外... 初始強度將設於五十節,根據稍早
在五千到七千呎為七十節的都卜勒加速度值覆蓋了
漢娜顯著的陣雨帶的東南象限的部分
整個預報周期在強度的小改變是可預計的...
並且漢娜可能容易地在任何預報時間成為
有五十節持續陣風的溫帶風暴
因漢娜將轉性為溫帶氣旋故到本報終止
--
Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)
Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942
--
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