[情報] 颶風艾克 - 第二十報
000
WTNT44 KNHC 060259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT
TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A
SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE
INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE
ESTIMATES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.
艾克的風眼在世界時零時左右短暫地重現. 自從那時之後在傳統衛星影像已看出在
中心密雲區中間歇的熱點. 零時前最新的微波影像指示風眼在西北象限已有一個小開口
...
除此以外內核依然完好無損. 主觀和客觀的德沃夏克強度估計值在T5.5和6.0之間...
以及強度報告將維持在一百節...或是低於此值. 另外一架空軍備役颶風獵人機已
預計在世界時零六零零時左右調查艾克... 應該能對艾克的強度提出更加精確的估值.
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.
艾克持續迅速地向西南西十四節移動. 由從百慕達附近的西南向延伸到艾克和
漢娜之間的中層脊導引艾克走這個方向. 此脊已預報在數日內逐漸地向北轉移
當轉移發生後... 預期艾克逐漸地轉更加西向. 路徑預報在此解已進入良好的一
致性...並以再次轉移到南到西向. 事實上...現在大部分可靠的指引取漢娜不是
在古巴上空就是在古巴的北海岸. 新的路徑已轉移到前次報告的南和西向...
並且這還有一點快. 應該要注意的是... 動態模型一致性和個別的單獨模型比
本中心的四到五日位置還要西南,並且假如此趨勢
持續下去,可能會需要加一些額外的西向轉移
THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE
IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION. WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND.
HOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER
MOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT
REMAINS OVER WATER.
現在東北向切入颶風的風切在接下來十二到二十四小時預報減輕.
自從艾克... 依然呈現一個非常健康的颶風...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
超過三十六小時後...預報風切成為非常輕微並且增量唯一的負面因素將可能是地形效應.
加上官方路徑預報沿著古巴北部海岸... 這看出地形只能輕微減弱.
不管怎樣...假如中心移到於古巴上空,艾克可能比下述更加減弱...
相反地假如他依然位於水域,可能會增強一點
--
Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)
Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942
--
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