[情報] 颶風古斯塔夫第三十二報 (已登陸)

看板TY_Research作者ALPHONSE2501 (ALPHONSE2501)時間15年前 (2008/09/02 01:57)推噓3(3推 0噓 2→)

留言5則, 4人參與討論串1/1

000 WTNT42 KNHC 011454 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008 THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR COCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR. HOWEVER...WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. 古斯塔夫的中心在世界時一四三零於路易斯安那海岸科克德裏登陸. 在過去幾小時來... 風眼在雷達上更加清晰. 而然...從空軍備役和本署的飛機資料延著都卜勒雷達風力推測古斯塔夫在登陸前已減弱為二級颶風. 根據飛機資料, 起始強度為九十五節...並這有點過於大方. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...SO THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT. GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH LOUISIANA MARSHES. A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS THE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND. AFTER 48 HR...GUSTAV IS LIKELY TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND. THUS...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR. (因為已登陸故省略後續) THE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 高風暴潮將會持續威脅路易斯安納海岸數小時... 以及豪雨將會持續威脅數日. ----------------------------------------- 比想像還來的快速減弱 -- Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine Teil 2 Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage) Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 71.108.243.61

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