[資訊] Gas Prices Rise, and Economists Seek Tipping Point
原新聞網址：New York Time
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/business/12fuel.html?_r=1&ref=business
Gas prices are approaching record highs, but so far most Americans do not
appear to be drastically cutting back their driving or even their spending
as they did in 2008.
雖然石油的價格接近歷史新高，大部份的美國人仍然沒有降低開車與花費石油
的習慣。
The question, economists agreed, is what happens if prices continue to
go up and remain high.
如果原油的價格持續上升且居高不下，將會發生甚麼問題。
Prices for a gallon of regular unleaded gas are topping $4 at more
service stations nationwide, revisiting the bleak territory of three
years ago, when the average price for a gallon of regular gas reached
a peak of $4.11 on July 17, 2008, according to the Oil Price Information
Service.
一加崙的無鉛汽油接近到4塊錢美金，這跟三年前的石油價格達到4.11塊美金
相當接近。
The survey of about 100,000 stations showed gas prices were now averaging
$3.77 a gallon nationwide. The average is already more than $4 in California,
Hawaii and Alaska, and analysts at the oil information service said drivers
were paying more than $4 at some stations in at least three other states —
Illinois, Connecticut and New York.
針對全國10家的加油站做調查，平均油價約每加侖3.77塊美金。在加州、夏威夷、與
阿拉斯加，已經突破四塊美金。
The government’s Energy Information Administration on Monday put the
average price for a gallon of regular gasoline slightly higher at $3.79,
up 10.7 cents from the previous week and nearly a dollar higher than the
same time last year.
Even with the higher prices, economists said recent broad data had
continued to be positive.
即使油價居高不下，經濟學家仍然認為這種現象很正面。
The labor market, for example has continued to strengthen, with the economy
adding 216,000 jobs in March. And a survey of 25 retailers tracked
by Thomson Reuters posted a 1.7 percent increase that same month, contrary
to analysts’ forecasts.
今年三月已經增加了21萬六千個工作機會，且零售商的調查也發現在三月的
收益成長率也達到1.7百分點。
But economists are still trying to determine the longer-term economic impact.
“Once we cross the $4 threshold, the pain will become more palpable,
and it is going to show up more noticeably in the reduction in future
consumer spending,” said Bernard Baumohl, the chief global economist for
the Economic Outlook Group. He predicted that “spending on discretionary
goods will be diminishing as the price of gasoline keeps moving higher.”
palable: 明顯的 (adj.)
He also pointed out that the government’s retail sales figures for March,
a broader measure that also takes into account more sectors and categories,
will be released on Wednesday. “I would not be at all surprised that
non-gasoline purchases are beginning to suffer,” he said.
John Gamel, the director of gasoline research for MasterCard, noted
the good jobs report last month. “It has been a tug of war,” he said,
between the improved labor market and any drag of higher gas prices.
*tug of war: 拉力賽 (這組字很實用...XDDD)
He said that a MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse report showed that gasoline
consumption fell 3.6 percent in the week ending April 1, year on year, the
fifth consecutive decline.
“Even with the better labor market, consumers are cutting back on their
driving,” Mr. Gamel said. “That is something we will have to watch.”
The decline may also be caused by Americans’ switch to more fuel-efficient
cars since 2008.
有些實用的使用下降，可能是從2008年以來已經開始使用高效率車的原因。
fuel-efficient car: 像是油氣混合或是油電混合車
“As bad as it is to see $4 pump prices,” the economy is in better
shape now than it was three years ago, said James W. Paulsen, the
chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management.
"The recent surge in energy prices may well slow the pace of economic
recovery in the next few quarters,” he wrote in a research note on Monday.
“However, the different position and tenure of the U.S. job market could
be the reason why the contemporary energy crisis may prove more a consumer
irritant at the pump than a cycle-ending recession risk".
tenure: 雇用期
irritant: 刺激物
Economists are also saying that industries that depend on travel revenue,
like recreation and hotel businesses, could feel the pinch over
the Memorial Day weekend and during the summer.
The rise in gasoline prices began to gain steam after political turmoil
surged in the Middle East in February. Commodity prices soared amid
heightened concerns over supply disruptions, especially from Libya,
even though other producers offered to make up for any shortfall.
Crude prices climbed to their highest level in more than two years last
Thursday, closing higher than $110.
turmoil: 動亂 (因為Libya的戰爭，石油價格繼續上升)
Money has been pouring into all commodities at an incredible pace for the
last four months,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst with the Oil Price
Information Service.
“I think we have hit the tipping point,” he said of gasoline prices.
“The sweet spot this year for economic growth without damaging demand
was probably $3.25 to $3.75.
The surge in commodity prices has been so pronounced that Federal Reserve
officials have commented on gasoline prices. On Monday, in fact,
Janet L. Yellen, the vice chairwoman of the board of governors of the Fed,
said that rising energy and food prices were creating “significant
hardships” for many people and that the Fed was watching the effect on
inflation.
Economists said they expected that Americans would make fewer nonessential
trips by car, particularly over Memorial Day or for summer vacation,
or would consolidate more trips for work with errands.
經濟學家希望美國人可以盡量少開車去旅行，特別是在Memorial Day，或是合併
工作與旅行，這樣可以更節省油。
“People just don’t have the elasticity in their budgets,”
said Robert Sinclair Jr., a spokesman for AAA New York.
國人總是沒有在預算中考慮到彈性的問題。
Still, many Americans are like Jon Wood, a 49-year-old mechanic who, after
the run-up in gas prices in 2008, reluctantly bought a Nissan Sentra for his
80-mile round-trip commute to his job in Greenwich, Conn.
Now, with the price for a gallon of gas at $4.19 at the station
where he works, he is glad he did.
I drive something very economical,” Mr. Wood said of his car, a 1993
model that gives him 30 miles to the gallon on the highway. “Normally,
it would not be my first choice.”
簡單來說，我認為這一篇文章只是在說明油價上漲會帶動通貨膨漲。希望美國人可以
少開車旅行，或是合併旅程，降低石油的使用量。
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