[新聞] This robot-run fund with a history of
原文標題：
This robot-run fund with a history of predicting Tesla price moves has just
made these stock picks
這支由機器人運營的基金具有預測特斯拉價格走勢的歷史，這使得這些股票精選成為可能
原文連結：
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Last Updated: April 14, 2021 at 8:21 a.m. ET
First Published: April 14, 2021 at 6:42 a.m. ET
原文內容：
Do you think you can pick stocks better than a robot?
An exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence has correctly
predicted Tesla price movements, and recently shared its most recent
portfolio additions and subtractions with MarketWatch.
The fund is the Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as
AMOM AMOM on the New York Stock Exchange since May 2019. The ETF has
delivered total returns of 9% so far in 2021 and 79% in the last year —
significantly outpacing its benchmark, the S&P 500 Momentum ETF SPMO, which
has returned a comparable 45% since April 2020.
AMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence,
tracking 50 large-capitalization U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings
each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock
picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the
decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence
scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of
patterns that show stock market momentum.
The fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group
leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other
AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index QRFT, a U.S.
large cap dividend index HDIV, and a U.S. value index NVQ.
One of AMOM’s standout achievements has been correctly anticipating price
moves in electric-vehicle maker Tesla’s TSLA stock. The fund sold off all of
its shares in Tesla at the end of August, before the stock fell 14% in
September and a further 10% in October. AMOM bought that dip, reinvesting in
Tesla in November, and loaded up on shares until the end of January, at which
point Tesla made up 6.7% of its portfolio.
Before the start of February, AMOM sold off its entire Tesla holdings as the
stock was near its all-time high. Shares in the EV company are down more than
12% since the beginning of February, when the AI decided to sell up. AMOM has
yet to buy Tesla again.
The entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future
for investing, though it hasn’t quite lived up to the hype yet.
Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat
the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis, when tested against
historical data.
But Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of
Business and the founder of a machine-learning-based hedge fund, argued on
MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds will not “crack” the stock
market.
Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to
maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which are “highly adversarial” in
nature. He advised investors considering investing in an AI system to ask
tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI’s “edge”will
persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of
performance outcomes for the fund are.
AMOM’s top stocks for April
The AI driving AMOM made recommendations to reorient the fund’s portfolio at
the end of March, including reweighting holdings as well as adding new stocks
and booting others.
Target TGT was the biggest addition, coming in with a portfolio weight of
2.7%. So far, shares in the retail giant are up 3% this month, with the stock
15% higher so far in 2021. The AI may have picked up this stock as part of
the wider rotation into value stocks, in line with its addition of another
retail giant Walmart WMT as the fund’s second-largest holding in March,
Qraft said. Shares in Walmart have rallied more than 7% since it was added to
AMOM last month.
ServiceNow NOW was another addition to the fund, with a portfolio weighting
just below Target’s at 2.69%. Shares in the cloud computing software company
have already climbed near 10% so far this month, in a rebound that brings the
stock up 4% this year.
Hot on Service Now’s heels in terms of portfolio weight is Autodesk ADSK,
making up 2.16% of AMOM’s portfolio. Shares in the maker of software and
design tools, including AutoCAD, are more than 6% higher since the beginning
of the month and below flat on the year. Monster Beverage MNST was another
pick for April, included in AMOM with a portfolio weight of just below 2%.
The energy drink company’s stock is up 5% in April and near 6% in 2021.
The final stock of the top five added to AMOM for April was another of the
stalwart value variety: O’Reilly Auto Parts ORLY, with 1.8% allocation.
Shares in the parts retailer are trading just 1% higher since the beginning
of the month, up 13% since the start of the year — so there could be more
gains in the remainder of the month if the AI is right.
5 stocks the AI doesn’t like
But AMOM also ditched stocks at the beginning of April, including booting out
two blue-chip big names with heavy weightings in the portfolio. Graphics
microchip maker Nvidia NVDA and home improvement retailer Home Depot HD, each
previously making up more than 5% of AMOM, were removed at the beginning of
the month.
The next three largest stocks by portfolio weight removed from the fund were
semiconductor systems supplier KLA Corporation KLAC, bar code and computer
tracking group Zebra Technologies ZBRA, and backup power generator maker
Generac Holdings GNRC.
So far, all five of those stocks are actually up in April, with Nvidia more
than 17% higher since the end of March. But if AMOM is right, there may be a
correction coming.
機翻如下：
你覺得你能比機器人更會選股嗎？
一隻由人工智慧驅動的交易所交易基金已經正確預測了特斯拉的價格走勢，並在最近與
MarketWatch分享了其最新的投資組合增減情況。
該基金是Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF，自2019年5月起在紐交所交
易，交易代碼為AMOM AMOM。該ETF在2021年迄今為止的總回報率為9%，過去一年的總回報
率為79%--大大超過了其基準--標普500動量ETF SPMO，後者自2020年4月以來的回報率為
45%。
AMOM是一個由人工智慧驅動的主動管理型投資組合，跟蹤50只大市值美股，每月對所持股
票進行重新加權。它以動量策略為基礎，其選股背後的人工智慧利用現有市場趨勢的變動
，為增持、減持或重持的決策提供資訊。人工智慧會掃描市場，並利用其預測能力分析一
系列顯示股市動量的模式。
該基金是韓國首爾金融科技集團Qraft的產品，該集團利用人工智慧在其投資產品中進行
投資，其中包括其他三個主要指數的人工智慧精選版本：美國大盤指數QRFT、美國大盤股
息指數HDIV和美國價值指數NVQ。
AMOM的突出成就之一是正確預測了電動汽車製造商特斯拉的TSLA股票的價格走勢。該基金
在8月底拋售了所有特斯拉的股票，然後該股在9月下跌了14%，10月又下跌了10%。AMOM買
下了這一跌幅，在11月重新投資特斯拉，並滿倉買入股票，直到1月底，此時特斯拉占其
投資組合的6.7%。
在2月初之前，AMOM在股價接近歷史高點時，拋售了所持的全部特斯拉股票。自2月初AI決
定賣出以來，這家電動車公司的股價下跌了超過12%。AMOM尚未再次買入特斯拉。
AI運營的基金進入華爾街，承諾了投資的高科技新未來，不過它還沒有完全達到炒作的效
果。理論上，研究人員已經表明，如果對照歷史資料進行測試，人工智慧投資策略的年化
收益率最高可以戰勝市場40%。
但紐約大學斯特恩商學院教授、一家基於機器學習的對沖基金的創始人Vasant Dhar在
2020年6月的MarketWatch上認為，AI運營的基金不會 "破解 "股市。
Dhar表示，以機器學習為基礎的基金很難在 "高度對抗性 "的市場中保持可持續的優勢。
他建議考慮投資人工智慧系統的投資者提出一些棘手的問題，包括人工智慧的 "優勢 "在
未來持續存在的可能性有多大，以及基金內在的不確定性和業績結果範圍是什麼。
AMOM4月份的熱門股
驅動AMOM的人工智慧在3月底提出了調整基金投資組合方向的建議，包括調整持股比重，
以及增加新股和剔除其他股票。
Target TGT是最大的新增股票，以2.7%的組合權重入市。到目前為止，這家零售巨頭的股
價本月上漲了3%，2021年至今該股上漲了15%。Qraft表示，人工智慧可能是作為更廣泛的
價值股輪動的一部分而買入這檔股票的，這與它在3月份增持另一家零售巨頭沃爾瑪WMT作
為該基金第二大持股的做法一致。自上個月加入AMOM以來，沃爾瑪的股價已經上漲了7%以
上。
ServiceNow NOW是該基金的另一個新增股票，其投資組合權重僅低於Target的2.69%。這
家雲計算軟體公司的股價本月以來已經攀升了接近10%，在這輪反彈中，該股今年上漲了
4%。
從投資組合的權重來看，緊跟Service Now的是歐特克ADSK，占AMOM投資組合的2.16%。包
括AutoCAD在內的軟體和設計工具製造商的股價自本月初以來上漲超過6%，低於年內持平
。Monster Beverage MNST是4月份的另一個選擇，被納入AMOM，投資組合權重略低於2%。
這家能量飲料公司的股價在4月份上漲了5%，2021年的漲幅接近6%。
4月份加入AMOM的前五名中的最後一檔股票是另一隻堅挺的價值品種。O'Reilly Auto
Parts ORLY，分配比例為1.8%。這家零部件零售商的股價自月初以來只上漲了1%，自年初
以來上漲了13%--因此，如果AI是正確的，本月剩餘時間可能會有更多的收益。
AI不喜歡的5檔股票
但AMOM也在4月初拋棄了一些股票，包括將組合中權重較大的兩隻藍籌大盤股踢出。圖形
微晶片製造商Nvidia NVDA和家裝零售商Home Depot HD此前在AMOM中的占比均超過5%，但
在月初被剔除。
按投資組合權重計算，從基金中剔除的下三檔股票分別是半導體系統供應商KLA公司KLAC
、條碼和電腦追蹤集團Zebra Technologies ZBRA以及後備電源製造商Generac Holdings
GNRC。
到目前為止，這五檔股票在4月份實際上都是上漲的，其中Nvidia自3月底以來上漲了17%
以上。但如果AMOM是正確的，可能會有一個修正。
心得/評論：
我對於所謂的AI選股或者演算法選股的評價是，
符合現代工具進步的技術分析派。
比技術分析更符合理性和邏輯、更不神棍、資訊更全面更不受感情影響。
至於技術分析出現以後，由於市場對抗性而出現的各種流派和缺陷將來也會出現。
但是由於工具的進步，演算法的自我辯證會比以前更早被完成。
就像AlphaGo對於圍棋遠超出人類速度的高速換代和窮盡。
屆時會出現的並不是人類交易的滅亡，
就像病毒演進並不會帶來生物的滅亡而是共存一樣。
只是掌握工具的人可以更安全而且輕鬆的累積財富而已。
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※ 編輯: nangle (118.163.36.239 臺灣), 04/14/2021 21:20:18