[新聞] The Fed will cut rates in March已刪文

看板Stock作者 (我可以看見嗎)時間4年前 (2020/02/29 06:38), 編輯推噓34(39推 5噓 43→)
留言87則, 40人參與, 4年前最新討論串1/1
The Fed will cut rates in March the market predicts By Anneken Tappe, CNN BusinessꀊUpdated 4:39 PM EST, Fri February 28, 2020 https://reurl.cc/D1NrOj New York(CNN Business)Central banks around the world are closely monitoring th e novel coronavirus outbreak, and investors believe they will step in to keep the world's economies humming. Stocks have been selling off all week, even briefly fell into correction Thurs day, as investors and economists grow increasingly concerned about the virus' impact on global supply chains and trade. That helped sent market expectations for interest rate cuts through the roof. TheME's FedWatch Tool澵hows a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will c ut rates in March. The markets priced in an 11% chance of that a week ago. The probability of a standard quarter-percentage-point cut on Friday was overt aken by expectations for a half-point cut at the Fed's next monetary policy me eting on March 18. The probability of the latter was 52% at Friday's close, do wn from nearly 92% earlier in the day. The likelihood of a bigger rate cut shot through the roof later in the day, af ter Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to氲ounter濳he market's expectations with a statement: "The fundamentals of the US economy remain strong," Powell said. He added that the central bank was monitoring the outbreak and its economic im plications, and will "act as appropriate to support the economy." Even though the meeting date is less than three weeks away, the central bank c ould meet earlier for an emergency rate cut, said analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The溻ast emergency rate cut濳ook place in 2008. BofA also expects a half-percentage-point cut, citing disorderly market moves and a possible demand shock as a result of the virus outbreak. It said last ye ar's "insurance" rate cuts could serve as a blueprint. But the Federal Reserve might not be as quick to jump on the monetary easing w agon as investors would like. Neel Kashkari and Loretta Mester, presidents of the Minneapolis and Cleveland central banks, respectively, both said Monday there was no immediate need to c ut interest rates. James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed, said the cen tral bank probably wouldn't cut rates unless the outbreak escalates. "Further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a global pandemic actually deve lops with health effects approaching the scale of ordinary influenza, but this is not the baseline case at this time," he said at the Fort Smith Regional Ch amber of Commerce on Friday. After all, the economic consequences of the virus outbreak have yet to be refl ected in the US economic data that the Fed watches so closely. Large multinati onal companies like孭ppleꀨAAPL)乸nd嗰icrosoftꀨMSFT)温ave烀arned about how th e outbreak will hurt on their businesses, but America's economy as a whole isn 't all that reliant on trade and exports, which shields it somewhat from globa l economic woes. That means the Fed might not have reason to act yet. Even though啫ed cut rates three times溻ast year to stimulate the economy, it i s still above the ultra-low rates from the financial crisis. The benchmark rat e now sits at 1.5% to 1.75%. "The Fed is probably the central bank with the most room to cut, so it's almos t rational to price in more action," said Ilan Solot, currency strategist at B rown Brothers Harriman, of the heightened expectations for lower rates. Last year's cuts came on the coattails of the US-China trade war, which weighe d on investor and business sentiment. "The coronavirus has taken the baton from the trade war," said Brian Nick, chi ef investment strategist at Nuveen, adding that the virus outbreak is affectin g similar assets and industries as last year's trade war did. Are rates already too low? But some investors are skeptical if monetary policy is the right tool to help combat the fallout from the outbreak. "There is nothing that will be 'stimulated' monetarily from a rate cut or two that isn't already being 'stimulated' by the very low rate environment," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. "And rate cuts aren't a vaccine and won't bring factories back and people traveling aga in." Similarly, the European Central Bank might not be the right authority to step in to stimulate the export-reliant European economy. The ECB still has not rai sed its benchmark interest rate since slashing it during theꀲ010-2012 Europea n sovereign debt crisis. While the bank might cut other interest rates, alread y-low rates could mean European countries will combat any economic fallout fro m the virus outbreak with fiscal rather than monetary stimulus, said Marc-Andr e Fongern, head of FX research at Fongern Global FX. US Treasury yields, which are an expression of future interest rate expectatio ns, have been sliding this week, with the 10-year government bond yield fallin g below 1.29% to a fresh record low. Bond yields and prices move opposite dire ctions. "In my opinion in the US, there's a conflation between hedging and the actual pricing in" of interest rate cuts, Solot said. Fixed-income products like Treasuries are a common hedge for stock investors. Given the sharp selloff in stocks, the rally in bonds and consequently lower y ields might be driven by more than just rates expectations. In the developing world, the picture looks slightly different. China, where the outbreak originated, is expected to feel the most economic pa in as businesses and factories shut down. Its central bank has already stepped in to support the country's markets and economy. Other countries in the region are following suit. The脷ank of Indonesia cut湶t s short-term lending rate by a quarter percentage point last week. The嗰onetar y Authority of Singapore said汢arlier this month that "there is sufficient roo m" to ease its effective exchange rate to combat weakening economic conditions . In South Korea, where coronavirus cases spiked last weekend, the central bankꀊleft its interest rates unchanged乸t Thursday's meeting but stressed that the bank continued to be accommodative and would act to ensure recovery of economi c growth and stable inflation. 心得: 空軍要小心 FED要出手了 美股摩台收盤前急拉 不要追空 高空低補 反彈再空 不要殺低 有爽記得要出 多軍的話 就是逢反彈減碼 不需要殺低… 也不建議攤平 可以借券放空一些 你看不爽的股票 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.136.71.28 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1582929491.A.FDD.html
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02/29 06:41, 4年前 , 1F
讚啦
02/29 06:41, 1F
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02/29 06:45, 4年前 , 2F
爽
02/29 06:45, 2F
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02/29 06:49, 4年前 , 3F
利率降起來 QEQ起來 錢要多少有多少
02/29 06:49, 3F
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02/29 06:56, 4年前 , 4F
韓國央行的操作看不懂
02/29 06:56, 4F
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02/29 06:57, 4年前 , 5F
鴿滿倉，莫急莫慌莫害怕
02/29 06:57, 5F
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02/29 06:57, 4年前 , 6F
QE-XS
02/29 06:57, 6F
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02/29 06:57, 4年前 , 7F
最愛這種政治干預 最後崩更慘
02/29 06:57, 7F
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02/29 07:01, 4年前 , 8F
此地無銀三百兩
02/29 07:01, 8F
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02/29 07:05, 4年前 , 9F
政治干預崩更慘?樓上活在平行時空嗎?
02/29 07:05, 9F
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02/29 07:11, 4年前 , 10F
簡單死了 就說一定暴漲
02/29 07:11, 10F
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02/29 07:12, 4年前 , 11F
川普是近來干預央行獨立性最嚴重的美國總統
02/29 07:12, 11F
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02/29 07:13, 4年前 , 12F
所以一旦央行真的被他拉著走
02/29 07:13, 12F
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02/29 07:13, 4年前 , 13F
還好主席不是樓上，看著經濟崩潰然後覺得自己做了
02/29 07:13, 13F
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02/29 07:13, 4年前 , 14F
正確決定
02/29 07:13, 14F
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02/29 07:14, 4年前 , 15F
市場會開始質疑fed的決策
02/29 07:14, 15F
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02/29 07:17, 4年前 , 16F
這總統只看股市 不愛看降息通膨和失業率
02/29 07:17, 16F
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02/29 07:18, 4年前 , 17F
只狂喊要降息 不看通膨和失業率
02/29 07:18, 17F
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02/29 07:18, 4年前 , 18F
1.現在膨不起來2.失業率表現還是穩健
02/29 07:18, 18F
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02/29 07:20, 4年前 , 19F
別想著印鈔就會通膨，通膨要件都沒有出來是要怎麼
02/29 07:20, 19F
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02/29 07:20, 4年前 , 20F
膨？
02/29 07:20, 20F
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02/29 07:21, 4年前 , 21F
02/29 07:21, 21F
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02/29 07:21, 4年前 , 22F
央行的兩個任務就是穩通膨和失業率
02/29 07:21, 22F
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02/29 07:22, 4年前 , 23F
如果是在這波肺炎爆發之前這樣說川普 這是成立 但現
02/29 07:22, 23F
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02/29 07:22, 4年前 , 24F
在時空背景不同 川普充其量只是順水推舟
02/29 07:22, 24F
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02/29 07:25, 4年前 , 25F
只能說川普閉嘴 不要動不動說要換fed主席
02/29 07:25, 25F
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02/29 07:25, 4年前 , 26F
其他職位可以隨他爽任他換
02/29 07:25, 26F
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02/29 07:26, 4年前 , 27F
fed主席要自己請辭才會換，而且一屆任期很久
02/29 07:26, 27F
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02/29 07:27, 4年前 , 28F
川普底下的官通常是被請辭 哈哈
02/29 07:27, 28F
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02/29 07:31, 4年前 , 29F
川普底下的官員都直接被Fire,國安部長跟特勤局長就
02/29 07:31, 29F
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02/29 07:31, 4年前 , 30F
是個例子
02/29 07:31, 30F
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02/29 07:37, 4年前 , 31F
tipsof亂喊等下週一才知道，沒人care你黑白講的
02/29 07:37, 31F
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02/29 07:41, 4年前 , 32F
靠背看推文就知道沒有人看內文
02/29 07:41, 32F
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02/29 07:42, 4年前 , 33F
這篇根本標題殺人
02/29 07:42, 33F
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02/29 07:44, 4年前 , 34F
Fed怕多君週末跳樓，只好出來安撫安撫
02/29 07:44, 34F
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02/29 07:45, 4年前 , 35F
這跟貿易戰一樣 降息的預期有得炒了 炒到創新高!!!
02/29 07:45, 35F
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02/29 07:45, 4年前 , 36F
可是真的發生收盤前急拉，已經有效果了
02/29 07:45, 36F
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02/29 07:46, 4年前 , 37F
降息VS社區感染擴大 Round 2
02/29 07:46, 37F
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02/29 07:47, 4年前 , 38F
Fed已經是個炒股和亂印錢的黑單位了
02/29 07:47, 38F
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02/29 07:49, 4年前 , 39F
刺激喔！究竟錢能不能戰勝被傳染後病死的恐懼呢？這
02/29 07:49, 39F
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02/29 07:49, 4年前 , 40F
真的是大哉問…
02/29 07:49, 40F
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02/29 07:49, 4年前 , 41F
身為全球最大的金主和莊家 炒股很過分嗎
02/29 07:49, 41F
噓
02/29 07:50, 4年前 , 42F
話說沒看到美國跟義大利斷航 好神奇
02/29 07:50, 42F
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02/29 07:50, 4年前 , 43F
錢無限印就好了 錢漫灌到股市就會漲了 很簡單
02/29 07:50, 43F
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02/29 07:51, 4年前 , 44F
錢是可以印很多啦！但是價值就不一定了…
02/29 07:51, 44F
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02/29 07:52, 4年前 , 45F
話說沒看到美國跟日義韓斷航或撤僑 好神奇
02/29 07:52, 45F
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02/29 07:53, 4年前 , 46F
就像這次為什麼大家拼命拋售股票，還不是覺得手中的
02/29 07:53, 46F
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02/29 07:53, 4年前 , 47F
股票不值那個價？
02/29 07:53, 47F
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02/29 07:54, 4年前 , 48F
02/29 07:54, 48F
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02/29 07:55, 4年前 , 49F
值不值那個價?炒上去就值了 很簡單
02/29 07:55, 49F
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02/29 07:55, 4年前 , 50F
有人空在底部說我亂喊?
02/29 07:55, 50F
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02/29 08:00, 4年前 , 51F
下週見真章囉
02/29 08:00, 51F
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02/29 08:05, 4年前 , 52F
印鈔
02/29 08:05, 52F
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02/29 08:06, 4年前 , 53F
病毒只要進入華爾街，就真的變成程式交易了
02/29 08:06, 53F
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02/29 08:07, 4年前 , 54F
全部隔離
02/29 08:07, 54F
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02/29 08:07, 4年前 , 55F
降息拿來吃 不知道能不能治療病毒感染
02/29 08:07, 55F
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02/29 08:11, 4年前 , 56F
新冠肺炎?光鈔票就可以打死病毒了
02/29 08:11, 56F
噓
02/29 08:11, 4年前 , 57F
美式維穩抓緊了 加州第二例無法確定感染源的出現了
02/29 08:11, 57F
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02/29 08:13, 4年前 , 58F
難怪舊金山突然先緊急狀態 顆顆
02/29 08:13, 58F
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02/29 08:13, 4年前 , 59F
只要病毒還是優勢，空方就是優勢
02/29 08:13, 59F
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02/29 08:13, 4年前 , 60F
看來後面坑有點大
02/29 08:13, 60F
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02/29 08:13, 4年前 , 61F
死創敗的機會來了
02/29 08:13, 61F
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02/29 08:16, 4年前 , 62F
降了也救不了疫情！
02/29 08:16, 62F
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02/29 08:16, 4年前 , 63F
舊金山出現第二例不明源頭感染囉
02/29 08:16, 63F
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02/29 08:17, 4年前 , 64F
降了來救不起來 那就更慘
02/29 08:17, 64F
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02/29 08:18, 4年前 , 65F
美帝爆開後剛好無縫接軌支那疫情二次爆發，呵呵。
02/29 08:18, 65F
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02/29 08:19, 4年前 , 66F
標題殺人
02/29 08:19, 66F
推
02/29 08:23, 4年前 , 67F
完了
02/29 08:23, 67F
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02/29 08:27, 4年前 , 68F
大空頭行情 還看不出 在給希望 在絕望 2月營收爆炸
02/29 08:27, 68F
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02/29 08:27, 4年前 , 69F
是事實
02/29 08:27, 69F
噓
02/29 08:33, 4年前 , 70F
此地無銀三百兩，長空無誤，美股下看1.3萬點
02/29 08:33, 70F
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02/29 08:34, 4年前 , 71F
2月營收鐵定爆炸 疫情燒到歐美3月炸更兇
02/29 08:34, 71F
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02/29 08:34, 4年前 , 72F
標題不漏掉下面那句 the market predicts
02/29 08:34, 72F
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02/29 08:34, 4年前 , 73F
美國爆發，中國二次爆發，日本東奧炸裂，路還長呢等
02/29 08:34, 73F
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02/29 08:35, 4年前 , 74F
著看
02/29 08:35, 74F
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02/29 08:36, 4年前 , 75F
運動員的肺搞爛了 有點可憐
02/29 08:36, 75F
噓
02/29 08:37, 4年前 , 76F
快硬鈔票打死病毒 比疫苗有效XD
02/29 08:37, 76F
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02/29 08:40, 4年前 , 77F
大家還不開始買嗎？現在賣壓看起來消化差不多了
02/29 08:40, 77F
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02/29 08:48, 4年前 , 78F
樓主說的中肯
02/29 08:48, 78F
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02/29 08:59, 4年前 , 79F
三月初反彈 再來給空軍玩
02/29 08:59, 79F
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02/29 09:04, 4年前 , 80F
嘻嘻
02/29 09:04, 80F
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02/29 09:10, 4年前 , 81F
標題殺人，大家都看不懂英文嗎？嘻嘻
02/29 09:10, 81F
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02/29 09:12, 4年前 , 82F
不管啦,川普大統領覺得降息可以防病毒擴散你敢嘴?
02/29 09:12, 82F
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02/29 09:20, 4年前 , 83F
崩整週終於召喚降息了
02/29 09:20, 83F
噓
02/29 09:38, 4年前 , 84F
標題 從頭到尾就都是大家的猜測
02/29 09:38, 84F
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02/29 10:15, 4年前 , 85F
文章寫這麼久才給CNN報 ? 哈哈
02/29 10:15, 85F
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02/29 10:57, 4年前 , 86F
肺炎靠降息就好啦，厲害了我川
02/29 10:57, 86F
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02/29 11:15, 4年前 , 87F
降息降到快沒扣打了
02/29 11:15, 87F
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