[閒聊] 2017/09/14 蘋概股的未來??消失
這一年多來,台股挾著 iPhone8 的題材也整整炒作了一年多
台股又再次的靠著一隻手機救台灣
所有相關的 i8 蘋果供應鍊幾乎都漲翻天
先看鏡頭部份
3406 玉晶光
2016 EPS -1.54
2017 EPS 1.56 (上半年)
股價從 52 漲到 596,為 i8 概念第一飆股
3008 大立光
2016 EPS 169.47
2017 EPS 71.56 (上半年)
股價從 1790 漲到 6075
機殼
2474 可成
2016 EPS 28.58
2017 EPS 8.03 (上半年)
股價從 200 漲到 399
揚聲器
2439 美律
2016 EPS 11
2017 EPS 4.6 (上半年)
股價從 70 漲到 255
被動元件
2327 國巨
2016 EPS 6.83
2017 EPS 4.07 (上半年)
股價從 55 漲到 239 (含減資)
PCB
2313 華通
2016 EPS 1.36
2017 EPS 0.78 (上半年)
股價從 15 漲到 35
軟版
6269 台郡
2016 EPS 8.42
2017 EPS 2.15 (上半年)
股價從 65 漲到 144
3D 觸控
3673 F-TPK
2016 EPS -4.27
2017 EPS 2.75 (上半年)
股價從 45 漲到 136
6456 F-GIS
2016 EPS 9.39
2017 EPS 7.64 (上半年)
股價從 74 漲到 379
組裝廠
2317 鴻海
2016 EPS 8.6
2017 EPS 2.66 (上半年)
股價從 72 漲到 122
IC
2330 台積電
2016 EPS 12.89
2017 EPS 5.94 (上半年)
股價從 143 漲到 219
基本上 2017 年挾著 i8 即將大賣超級賣的題材
台灣的蘋概股幾乎全部都有相當大的漲幅
由於這些蘋概股幾乎都是能影響加權指數的大型權重股
所以加權指數也從 7999 一路被拉抬至 10656
漲幅高達 2657 點 (其中還沒扣除除權息蒸發點數)
隨著史上最貴的手機 i8 / iPhoneX 問世
一直以來靠著一隻手機救台灣的台股將會何去何從呢?
=====================================================
劇本一
iPhone8 & iPhoneX
就算一隻要價 41500 還是人人搶著要
繼續無敵超級賣
屌打三星、SONY、Oppo、Vivo、ASUS和華為
繼續帶領蘋概股創下歷史新高
大立光股價繼續上攻 7000 8000 9000 10000
加權指數繼續挑戰 12686
====================================================
劇本二
i8 問世,蘋概股利多出盡,外資趕緊下車落跑
把籌碼丟給散戶融資
看看 2474 可成、2439 美律、3008 大立光、6269 台郡這些主要蘋概股
近期的股價表現,做頭的做頭、破線的破線
融資持續創高,外資每天把這些股票跟倒垃圾一樣的拼命倒出來給散戶朋友
如果 i8 和 iPhoneX 不再瘋狂排隊搶著要
這些供應鍊股價不再持續創新高
那麼這些蘋概股上方大量的融資籌碼可能就會一直套牢
直到散戶棄守多殺多
====================================================
不知道大家怎麼看i8問世後,蘋概股的後續發展?
覺得i8會繼續超級賣,繼續漲漲漲
還是利多出盡,外資開始出貨股價準備南下?
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