[標的] 3324 雙鴻 多
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1. 標的:3324雙鴻
2. 分類:多
3. 分析:
(1)為三星供應鏈,2016年的EPS為8.36元,創歷史新高。近期因法人預估
三星手機熱管無法漲價,雙鴻營收受到影響,且凱基投顧看壞S8銷量,
衝擊雙鴻股價下跌。
(2)市場傳出雙鴻出貨S8熱管仍有約50%的訂單,且雙鴻2017年Q1營收年減
在個位數以內,而三星S8發布後,是採無實體鍵設計,與先前S7有區別
性,南韓市場已傳出預購火熱,身邊不少使用三星手機的朋友也說要換
S8,預料S8的銷量應會高於凱基投顧所預估,故S8手機銷量增加,應可
抵銷熱管單價下跌的衝擊,再加上下半年仍有Note8出貨(去年沒吃到太
多Note7的營收),雙鴻也打進蘋果供應鏈,利多題材不少,隨著S8熱管
出貨,外資、投信賣壓告一段落,應已利空出盡,預估今年營收至少不
會比去年差,EPS至少有8元(目前市場分析報告是估8元多)。
(3)今日股價最低來到81.6元,約在10倍本益比左右,以12倍本益比來看的
話,股價至少應有96元的實力。
4. 進退場機制:進場:84元。
停利:94元(賺10元,獲利約12%,預估1個月內達到)。
停損:股價跌回84元(不賠本)。
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