[新聞] 今年逢7魔咒!謝金河:當心4隻黑天鵝爆災難
1.原文連結(超過一行或過長必須縮網址):
https://goo.gl/3Jd1XL
2.原文內容:
今年逢7魔咒!謝金河:當心4隻黑天鵝爆災難
2017年02月11日 08:46 吳美觀/整理報導
全球金融市場向來有「逢7變盤魔咒」,從1977、1987、1997、2007 逢7就出現一個大
轉折,今年邁入2017,美國總統川普的不可預測性,也為未來世界埋下不可預測的風險。
財信傳媒董事長謝金河認為,國際政經環境及金融市場今年至少有「4隻黑天鵝」在上空
盤旋的變數,他提醒投資人要提高警覺,即使美股創高站上20000點大關也不容過度樂觀
。
謝金河在蘋果日報專欄撰文指出,從半世紀變化來看,「逢7」總讓金融市場出現驚天動
地的大變化,如1977年不列顛森林體系瓦解、金本位廢除、美元崩潰,當年美元兌瑞士法
郎貶值36%、兌日圓貶33%;1987年出現美國10月股災,道瓊指數單日跳水22.6%,引爆全
球股災的骨牌效應;到了1997年的亞洲金融風暴,造成東協各國股匯市大狂殺,再來是20
07年底,美國次貸危機引發全球金融海嘯,聯準會祭出量化寬鬆政策來救市。
今年邁入2017,這次瑞士達沃斯論壇,全球財經專家高度關注金融市場是否出現10年周期
的變化?謝金河預期有4隻黑天鵝來攪局,首先是美國若持續升息,美元強勢引發新興市
場資金外逃,類似當年亞洲金融風暴翻版;第2隻黑天鵝是從英國脫歐後的歐盟及歐元區
崩解危機。荷蘭、法國大選,加上梅克爾政權保衛戰及義大利五星運動,這些指標國家若
翻盤,歐元區恐解體。
至於第3隻搗亂黑天鵝,謝金河直指,川普可能引爆的全球貿易戰,若對中國祭出45%高關
稅,全球報復性貿易戰恐開打;最後1隻黑天鵝變數,就是中國的系統性風險,包括房市
的天價及天量庫存,企業的高槓桿及資本外逃。
(中時電子報)
3.心得/評論(必需填寫滿20字):
老謝說話了!
我記得這位老兄好像從去年就開始預測會崩盤了 可能是做空被嘎上天了吧?
以下開放噓爆
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