[新聞] 杜金龍:台股周一就會破8000點
1.原文連結(必須檢附):
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/new/20160515/862050/
2.原文內容:
2016年05月15日17:28
台股周線連4黑,險守8000點關卡,不過,分析師表示,在美股轉弱,外資連11賣,賣超
逾千億元,加上國內總體經濟不佳,台股周一就會先跌破8000點,本周不排除續測今年低
點7627點。
凱基投顧董事長杜金龍指出,本周正好進入高點修正後第13個月,在國內總體經濟數據不
佳,國際股市也開始往下拉回修正,本周台股不僅會失守8000點關卡,且會持續往下測。
從國內總經來看,杜金龍分析,國內景氣遲遲看不到好轉跡象,出口已連15黑、外銷訂單
連12黑、GDP連3季負成長、景氣燈號連10藍,且接下來要公布的數據,連黑的機率高下。
在總經數據不佳,加上第1季財報全都露,在蘋果銷售不佳拖累,電子股表現不佳,加上
第1季台幣升值,電子股匯損壓力大幅增加,且第2季電子股營運展望還是不佳下,市場預
估105年上市櫃公司稅後純益衰退幅度會大幅超過去年年衰1.21%。
但外資的調節卻未達滿足點,杜金龍說,外資從4月底來,已連11天賣超台股,上周五賣
超金額更擴大到逾140億元,台股盤中一度回測7999點,雖然終場力守在8000點,以
8053.69點作收,但去年低點7203點至今年1月18日的7627點中長上升支撐點已失守。
他進一步指出,外資雖然這波已連賣逾1020億元,但賣超要到2000億元,才會告一段落,
在外資賣超尚未達滿足點,加上內閣已總辭,不可能會有明顯的護盤。
在內憂不斷,加上國際股也開始轉弱,尤其是美股,杜金龍說,台股周一就會先跌破8000
點,本周不排除續測7627點。(高佳菁/台北報導)
3.心得/評論(必需填寫):
這句 台股周一就會先跌破8000點
講得很肯定 晚點來驗證一下
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