Re: [標的] 2498 宏達電
小弟紅茶小散戶一枚…簡單說一下自己
的想法…
紅茶之前大跌的最重要原因有兩個:
1.手機業務,尤其是M9實在太不像話,
碰上IPHONE出大手機,一比之下就相
對沒競爭力
2.王雪紅親政後,財報洗大澡,認了一
堆損失
後者應該會是一次性的,前者則有待觀
察。不過手機業務來說,至少現在HTC
有在減少產品線,明年要再砍一半,應
該比較不會像以前ONE X那樣出像品管
問題(不過據內部員工表示,HTC的某
些自爆的文化因素還是存在…)
中期來看,手機業務應該還是持穩的:
GOOGLE的單沒啥利潤,但應該至少也是
個續命丹;HTC 10則可以小小期待一下
;整體產品線的自爆機率應該(?)是比
以前小的。整體手機市占率和利潤來看
,至少看起來是不至於再惡化了。
另一方面,VR是目前HTC最重要的成長
因子,HTC股價大漲也是因為看好未來
(所以也完全脫離基本面)。所以現
在的問題是:到底未來會有多好?據
新聞報導,VIVE預購開放10分鐘就有
15000台的訂單,那麼到了四月初出貨
時,到底可以賣多少台?
HTC很邪惡的沒有繼續公佈數字,不過
今天蘋果日報有報導,HTC桃園廠「大
批放量」。大批是多少?沒人知道。
但是根據以前的資料,在裁減處份桃
園廠產能之前,桃園廠一個月的產能
是300萬支手機;考慮到手機和VIVE
的不同以及桃園產能的減少,一個月
出貨30萬台VIVE也不是不可能的。果
真如此,那也就可以解釋最近的大漲
:因為這相當於今年營收多了600億以
上,明年還會更多。
所以,短期最重要的觀察指標是:四
月初公佈的VIVE出貨數字到底是多少
?中期的觀察指標應該是手機業務能
不能收復失土,以及VIVE出貨數字的
持續性。長期來看,最重要的觀察指
標應該是VIVE的競爭態勢,還有HTC
是不是又像以前一樣再度自爆…
個人看好150會很快地就會回去,200
則要看VIVE的出貨。不過,投資有風
險,以上請參考即可,請自行判斷斟
酌進(出)場~
--
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其實我HTC和IPHONE都用過,個人是
覺得HTC沒那麼差(最差的其實是相
機),IPHONE也沒那麼好(最好的
是相機)。如果HTC 10可以把這一
部分的弱勢補起來,應該是能賣的
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三月不會認VIVE的收入的,收入要等
四月出貨後才能認吧?
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※ 編輯: Okak (36.231.130.34), 03/15/2016 00:37:44
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