[心得] 量能出不來的因素在於散戶幾乎無法獲利
如果你有興趣研究台股歷次爆大量的時空背景(日量>2500億以上)
就會發現到成交量之所以可以爆大,那是因為散戶前仆後繼大量進場的結果,
法人就算量再大一天也只能創造幾百億成交量,
但散戶卻可以創造出上千億甚至兩千億以上.
低檔殺出的大量,多是融資斷頭與散戶大量被迫停損出場造成,
那麼高檔爆出的大量呢? 就是散戶出現獲利後陸續一窩蜂進場所致了,
對照融資餘額變化,可以發現到大量爆發前第一批融資多半已經有了明顯獲利或帳上獲利,
也因為他們有了獲利,所以開始'吃好道相報',報刊媒體也愈刊愈大,
進而引動更多散戶甚至已經不常交易的散戶重新進場,等到第二批也獲利了,
第三批很快又會進來,於是量愈滾愈大,指數也在借力使力之下愈走愈高,
這段期間通常是資增券增,融資雖迭創新高,
但融券看到愈走愈高的指數與融資也不死心放空(此時融資戶沒套牢,不會構成太大賣壓)
法人只要不大賣行情便會在借力使力下持續走高,量想當然也會愈滾愈大,
直到軋空告一段落轉為高檔反向殺多為止.
政府口口聲聲說要創量,改善台股低量結構,問題之前的證所稅與健保補充保費等
都是對散戶十分不友善的政策,連帶影響散戶進場意願,
再加上之前每每好不容易看到出量過高,資券同增,官員就在那裏扯些有的沒的,
行情難以延續下量當然增幅就有限,因為沒辦法讓散戶有賺錢的感覺嘛,
假若這樣還不如放著給他完全尊重市場機制不是更好?
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