[心得] 提防打底失敗
昨天行情才反彈,今天馬上又是一根長黑打下去,或許有人會自我安慰說是結算緣故,
但是,如果看到12月期指殺得遠比11月還兇時,要全然牽托結算的話
光是立場就站不住腳了.
上週的長黑週K線無論如何我們都必須予以尊重,昨天行情儘管收漲做出十字晨星變盤線,
可偏偏8500這個點(頸線+長黑週線1/2處)過不去就算了,
盤中證所稅取消後更是出現一路急殺至尾盤的趨勢,
這代表著特定大咖人士有藉機出貨現象,結果今天連昨的高點都沒點到就一路往下,
最終甚至出現十分不利的吞噬黑棒,僅僅一天便再度跌破季線同時回測缺口,
量也反向萎縮,短線上空方強勢型態依然未有扭轉跡象.
令人憂心的還有籌碼,假若融資能有效清洗,外資可以有效減緩現貨賣超,
盤還比較有反彈的續航力,偏偏最近卻不是如此,外資始終沒有在現期貨有翻多現象,
融資還不減反增,連帶讓多方的反攻力道難度變得更高,證所稅是廢了,
但對台股的傷害已然造成,大戶要立即回籠談何容易(當然不廢只會更慘不會更好)
尤其現階段台股再度面臨波段下修危機,季線十天後也將扣減相對較高指數,
技術面與籌碼不佳的環境未變下,台股短期內要止穩著實不甚樂觀,
之前提過8130這個點只要沒法守住,下看七字頭或不可免,
然以目前種種條件均難以支持台股立即性反轉之下,
投資人需嚴防行情隨時可能形成反轉失敗再度破底而下的走勢,甚或大跌一段,
務必小心為上.
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