[心得] 明年的1,2月景氣就會好轉!
之前看過一篇文章, 在2008年, 投資人都覺得像世界末日了, 可是那時一個
投資達人, 他看的是庫存水位,3C產品庫存也會慢慢消化,它不像鋼鐵,可以放
很久,不會過時...
景氣差,通常是庫存過高,客戶暫停下單, 但是再怎麼遲, 1~2季時間也會消化完,
張忠謀說明年1,2月景氣會開始轉好,不是沒道理, 消費者不可能一直不更新電子產品!
要撐也有個時限!
如果依照這時間點, 現在第4季, 台廠生意已滑落到谷底, 正好是strong buy
的買點, 不然等到總統大選結束,已經是明年第1季, 那時景氣已經變好,要買已經太遲了!
請問這觀點正確嗎?
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