[心得] 台股有沒機會走去年底到今年初的陸股模式
陸股去年底的大漲行情可以說是政策力一手主導,
當時政府為了讓陸股正常化,先是砸了一堆政府基金進場買股,
股價一開始也只是緩升,之後再擠出一連串的政策利多(比如降息降準)
將股價硬拉,漲幅與成交值也不斷加大,政府基金買的點在上證2000多點,
出場時卻是在4500點左右,可以說政府炒股硬生生賺了一倍以上,
政府出場後,行情並沒有立即往下跌,反而一路再漲破5000點,
因為那時政府基金出脫時,日量能飆到十兆,因此並沒有產生過重賣壓.
現在的台股同樣是國安進場,近期也是不斷擠利多出來,想要力圖作價,
央行理監事會估可能降息一碼,以及證所稅的火速過關,
甚至是年底以前台滬通可能加速談判與開通等,
這些都讓我想起去年陸股的政策牛市,至於台股能不能像陸股那樣走得強且久?
重點還是在量能,而且國安基金如果要出脫又不造成大跌也必須有夠大的量能不是嗎?
還有就是不建議隨便作空,政策牛市的情況通常是拉回幅度很小,
但漲幅卻不小,放空者通常會被慘軋,甚至在陸股那種量滾量的行情下,
即便是對沖基金亦可能滅頂,能做的當然就是在有限幅度的拉回下買績優龍頭股,
然後設好停損即可,至少政策牛市行情不跟白不跟,你說對吧.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.164.141.196
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1441949636.A.523.html
推
09/11 13:34, , 1F
09/11 13:34, 1F
→
09/11 13:34, , 2F
09/11 13:34, 2F
推
09/11 13:35, , 3F
09/11 13:35, 3F
→
09/11 13:37, , 4F
09/11 13:37, 4F
→
09/11 13:38, , 5F
09/11 13:38, 5F
→
09/11 13:38, , 6F
09/11 13:38, 6F
→
09/11 13:39, , 7F
09/11 13:39, 7F
→
09/11 13:41, , 8F
09/11 13:41, 8F
推
09/11 13:43, , 9F
09/11 13:43, 9F
→
09/11 13:46, , 10F
09/11 13:46, 10F
→
09/11 13:46, , 11F
09/11 13:46, 11F
→
09/11 13:47, , 12F
09/11 13:47, 12F
→
09/11 13:48, , 13F
09/11 13:48, 13F
→
09/11 13:48, , 14F
09/11 13:48, 14F
推
09/11 13:48, , 15F
09/11 13:48, 15F
→
09/11 13:49, , 16F
09/11 13:49, 16F
→
09/11 13:49, , 17F
09/11 13:49, 17F
→
09/11 13:50, , 18F
09/11 13:50, 18F
→
09/11 13:52, , 19F
09/11 13:52, 19F
→
09/11 13:53, , 20F
09/11 13:53, 20F
→
09/11 13:54, , 21F
09/11 13:54, 21F
→
09/11 13:54, , 22F
09/11 13:54, 22F
推
09/11 13:55, , 23F
09/11 13:55, 23F
→
09/11 13:55, , 24F
09/11 13:55, 24F
→
09/11 13:56, , 25F
09/11 13:56, 25F
噓
09/11 14:03, , 26F
09/11 14:03, 26F
推
09/11 14:20, , 27F
09/11 14:20, 27F
→
09/11 14:20, , 28F
09/11 14:20, 28F
推
09/11 14:22, , 29F
09/11 14:22, 29F
→
09/11 14:22, , 30F
09/11 14:22, 30F
推
09/11 14:48, , 31F
09/11 14:48, 31F
→
09/11 15:07, , 32F
09/11 15:07, 32F
→
09/11 15:18, , 33F
09/11 15:18, 33F
→
09/11 15:19, , 34F
09/11 15:19, 34F
→
09/11 15:19, , 35F
09/11 15:19, 35F
→
09/11 15:19, , 36F
09/11 15:19, 36F
→
09/11 15:20, , 37F
09/11 15:20, 37F
→
09/11 15:20, , 38F
09/11 15:20, 38F
→
09/11 15:21, , 39F
09/11 15:21, 39F
→
09/11 15:21, , 40F
09/11 15:21, 40F
→
09/11 15:24, , 41F
09/11 15:24, 41F
→
09/11 15:24, , 42F
09/11 15:24, 42F
→
09/11 15:25, , 43F
09/11 15:25, 43F
→
09/11 15:36, , 44F
09/11 15:36, 44F
→
09/11 15:36, , 45F
09/11 15:36, 45F
→
09/11 15:36, , 46F
09/11 15:36, 46F
推
09/11 15:49, , 47F
09/11 15:49, 47F
→
09/11 15:49, , 48F
09/11 15:49, 48F
→
09/11 15:50, , 49F
09/11 15:50, 49F
→
09/11 15:52, , 50F
09/11 15:52, 50F
推
09/12 19:49, , 51F
09/12 19:49, 51F
推
09/16 20:46, , 52F
09/16 20:46, 52F
→
09/16 20:46, , 53F
09/16 20:46, 53F