[請益] 人口紅利到頂房價將下行嗎
真的會複製日本的房價走勢嗎?
盧冠安臉書:
https://m.facebook.com/sandpipertw?refsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fsan
dpipertw
2015剛好是台灣人口紅利(=勞動年齡人口)的最高點,(全台平均的)房價則在前兩年已經
創下最高點,和當年日本的模式剛好符合(房價領先人口紅利先反轉下跌)。話說投資最怕
的就是照搬以前的價格走勢,卻又不知道背後的成因(就是線性走勢思考)。以台灣的房價
來說,過去都是大漲小跌的原因是勞動力人口一直在成長(其實中南部的房價早就在1990
年創下歷史高點了,這幾年通膨調整之後的價格也沒漲超過1990的高點,因為勞動人口多
半都移到北部工作了)。前幾年有朋友跟我說,他在台灣買賣房地產從來沒賠過!未來,當
下一任總統卸任時,台灣減少六十萬以上的購屋人口,請問屆時還有幾個人敢這樣講?ꀊ------------------------------------------------------
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