[心得] 外資棄保效應正在擴大
這一個月來,台股的表現可以說是全世界倒數的,撇開創新高的陸港股不談,
就連未創新高的美股也是緩步往上,台股呢? 盤整到後來愈盤愈弱,
外資非但沒有在國際股市走強時大買,反倒還藉此趁勢調節,
這代表了什麼? 代表台股已成為外資棄保效應下被棄的那個市場.
外資投資台股,很現實的就是要賺錢獲利,假若他們評估在某個市場裡
未來獲利的空間與機率不大(比方那個國家的個別風險快速升高時)
鄰近市場卻可能有不錯表現的話,他們便會乾脆選擇棄保操作,
意即撤出某個弱勢市場,轉向其他強勢市場等,後果便有可能形成弱勢市場更弱勢,
強勢市場更強勢的情況,現在的問題在於陸股,港股乃至日股均見大漲,
連韓股也開始展開攻擊,台股卻在政策面束縛下讓外資難以獲得較佳的報酬率,
尤其是成交量的無力放大,過去9000點以上少說日均量1500億,可現在呢?
1000億都嫌多了,證所稅,二代健保補充保費,股利所得課稅等造成散戶,
實戶皆大量退場使得量能萎縮,量縮對外資來說就會形成流動性不足進出難度增高的問題,
所以這就是為什麼台股的走勢一直都很溫吞緣故,而且還是在國際股市表現亮麗下
才能維持緩步盤堅這樣的情況,每每拉上去就量縮,外資缺乏交易對手怎麼辦?
只能以現期貨互相套利方式操作,所以有時才會看到國際盤漲,台股反遇壓拉回,
國際盤跌,台股反開低走高的情況.
可現在更大的問題來了,陸股,港股在政策一連串做多下價量其揚,連韓股也表現得不錯,
偏偏這些國家交易成本都比台灣低上不少,讓外資更有機會與本錢表現,
操作獲利的或然率更高,試問台股有什麼可以跟他們比的? 國際盤漲台股都不一定會動,
國際盤跌釀成的系統風險台股卻是躲不掉,你若是外資的話為了績效還會想留在台股嗎?
除非政策面願意好好檢討對股市不公平的稅制,要不然外資棄保效應擴散的話,
台股恐怕會在資金排擠效應中弱勢化,甚或被邊緣化.
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