[心得] 過高之後
之前曾經提過9593非高點,無量不成頭,異常低的隱含波動率也代表高點未到,
今日終於突破了9593,接下來呢?
這波理論上為末升段,過9593也印證了,末升段不同於主升段的緩漲急跌,
反而常見急漲急跌以及劇烈洗刷,量能則會愈來愈大,不斷創新大量,
漲速與角度會比起之前明顯轉陡,之前投資人可能已經習慣過高必拉回,
但以現在外資的佈單,以及量能的增溫,假若投資人多半主觀認為過高放空是安全的話,
恐怕會直接過高後連續噴出(我是覺得現在很多投資人都這麼想了)
且估在第一季結束前,萬點就有機會看到.
當然我不否認萬點前會整理,但萬點絕非高點,整理後還會再來一次軋空,
將萬點以上放空的人軋爆(過萬點一定又是一堆偏空言論我不騙你)
然後直衝11000以上,過了11000後就要特別小心了,尤其是異常大量
(日量2000億以上或連三日1800億以上)融資異常增加,
開盤漲停家數愈來愈多,人氣指標股與權值股出現連日漲停,
等到連中華電信都開始連日大漲時(行情結束前重要警訊)
大概就會建議把持股減到1/3以下甚至出清了.
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