[心得] 注意末升段爆發點
在股市中,漲升長度,幅度最大的一般是主升段,但論速度的話,則是初升段最大,
次為末升段,最慢的反而是主升段(多以驚驚漲呈現),就好比人的成長,
幼兒期最快,兒童期穩步成長,到了12歲後的青春期會再加速成長直到17.8歲.
前高9593是波段高點,但就理論上並非末升段高點,這點可從量能觀點
(末升段高點多會呈現極大的量能,代表震盪出貨,高檔無量拉回多非高點)
以及波動率(波動率有90%以上的機率是領先指標,末升段高點的波動率不應是最低,
9593的波動率只有8.多%)且末升段波動率會隨行情往上跟著升高,
特別是到末期進入亢奮期時甚至可以升至20%(2007年9807高點)_
再來便是主升段常會過高拉回,末升段過高後則會出現加速噴出,加速趕頂的情況.
期指則會在末升段時不時出現正價差擴大(極大值可突破1%)
且率先過高連衝的超強勢表現.
現在的情況已經逐漸有末升段的影子,量開始慢慢增溫,波動率隨指數上漲而升高,
且期指不斷擴大正價差,9289越過後,很有機會直攻9593,接下來就等一些訊號,
1.拉出量能1200億以上的中長紅,這是很強的發動訊號 2.漲停家數愈來愈多,
甚至是開盤30分鐘漲停家數是否大增,這是很強的追價意願 3.外資單日買超是否破百億,
外加期貨淨多單是否突破15000口,這代表意圖強軋過高 4.人氣股是否愈來愈漲停,
甚至出現連續2-3根漲停? 這代表衝量意圖強烈
5.是否開始出現同時兩個以上主流族群一起動? 比如說現在是電子,金融,傳產連動,
等到電子金融一起動,或電子傳產一起動時,就代表動力增加,行情欲小不易
不妨好好注意一下.
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