[心得] 關鍵區-9100
行情自9251拉回後這兩天反彈,個人認為9100會是短線多空關鍵區,
9100以上有不少套牢籌碼,尤其是融資增加明顯,
而現階段週KD開始有下彎疑慮,9100能否有效站回,將會攸關後續多頭的延續力道
由於耶誕將近,外資法人的調節賣壓可望減緩,甚至不排除小幅轉買,
內資則已有進場卡位動作,估封關前行情或有機會再度看到9100-9150,
然後會處於量縮震盪待變,接下來就要看跨年後外資歸隊情況了,
證所稅大戶條款延三年,其實已經等同廢除(反正三年長得很),
量能可望回復比較正常的情況,假如外資在9100一帶現期貨同步翻多,
就代表他們'認錯行情'啟動,依過去經驗外資如果空在低檔,過壓後不乏大舉轉多的例子,
且通常會帶來不小行情,若是這樣,則行情接下來發展不容小覷,
至於到那時散戶在9100以上的融資解套,我敢說多數都會選擇小賺出脫,
反而會讓籌碼更乾淨.
我是建議來到9100附近壓力區,可以少量減碼,尤其減碼弱勢股,
但保留有題材股與強勢股,假若9100帶量有效過關,反而應該加碼因應.
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