[新聞] 美股現在是顆定時炸彈已回收

看板Stock作者humbler ((雙馬尾傳教士))時間11年前 (2014/06/12 23:45)推噓13(14推 1噓 2→)

留言17則, 17人參與討論串1/1

1.原文連結： http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/this-chart-shows-the-market-to-be--a-ticking-time-bomb-213658733.html 2.內容： Humbler不負責任翻譯 According to the Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar, bullish sentiment is at levels even higher than they were in December 2013, October 2007and August 1987, and we all know how that ended. 根據Lindsey Group公司的Peter Boockvar說，股市看漲的情緒甚至比2013年的十二月， 2007年的十月，和1987年的八月還要來的高，但是我想我們都知道後來的發展。 Using data from a survey conducted by Investors Intelligence, Boockvar says the number of bulls exceeds the number of bears by a near record margin. 根據來自Investors Intelligence的調查，Boockva說多頭指數對空頭指數幾乎來到了紀錄區間。 "Bulls are now just .3 [points] from a record high in December ’04 and compares with 61.6 in December ’13, 62.0 in October ’07 and 60.8 in August ’87," Boockvar wrote in a morning note. “多頭指數離04年12月的紀錄只差0.3，而對照13年12月則是61.6，07年十月則是62.0， 1987年八月則是60.8” Fellow technician, Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, agrees with Boockvar's assessment. 根據技術指標，Auerbach Grayson的全球技術分析師Richard Ross同意Boockvar的看法。 "Market sentiment really is in the bailiwick of the technician," said Ross, a "Talking Numbers" contributor. "I love to use sentiment indicators. But, let's remember they're not the greatest market timing tool. It's not the proverbial bell that rings at the top. It's more like a ticking time bomb." “市場的情緒目前真的是屬於技術層面，我喜歡使用人氣指標，但是它並不是最好的市場計時工具，這不是大家都知道會在股市高點響起的鐘，而是像一個正在到數的定時炸彈。 ” Ross thinks investors should be on guard whenever bullish sentiment exceeds 55 percent. But, for the short-term, the chart of the S&P 500 doesn't point to a serious decline. Ross認為投資人在多頭指數超過55的時候應該保持警覺，但是就短期而前，S&P500尚未看到嚴重的下滑。 "This is not the most nefarious short-term chart," Ross said. He sees the S&P 500 as trading in a well-defined trend channel for the past 12 months, with a "support zone" in the 1,850 to 1,900 range. "That's going to be a zone of support on any pullback," he said. "You don't want to be overly bearish unless you breach back below that, which I do think, ultimately, will happen." “這不是一張最可怕的短期線圖”，Ross看了S&P500過去十二個月的線圖，認為這擁有很棒趨勢通道，在1850~1900有個支撐區間。”這會是任何拉回時最好的支撐區，除非跌破這支撐區，否則你不用過度悲觀，但是我認為這遲早會發生”。 It's in the long-term chart "where the magic happens," Ross said. He sees significance in the S&P 500's 150-week moving average. "It provided a great tell for the market," he explains. Ross 看了S&P500的150周平均移動線，他說”這是我會作如此預測的關鍵，它顯示了市場目前的情況” Key is the technical symmetry of the period from 2003 to 2008 and 2010 to 2014. The index broke above the 150-week moving average in 2003, peaked 47 months later, and subsequently collapsed during the financial crisis. It has now been 45 months since the index broke above the 150-week moving average again in 2010. For Ross, that's a good enough reason to sell. 關鍵就是2003~2008與2010~2014的技術線型相似。指數在2003突破了150周平均移動線，在不斷創高47周後，突然出現金融危機後大跌。自2010年後現在指數突破150周平均移動線已經過了45個月了。對Ross來說，現在已經有足夠理由賣股。 "The timing is right," Ross said. "The sentiment is elevated. You want to leave this party while you're still having fun, as hard as it may be to do." “這時間很正確，投資人情緒高昂，你想要離開但是你又捨不得” Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, is also bearish on stocks but thinks low interest rates will keep the market steady, if just for the time being. Gina Sanchez，Chantico Global的創辦人，也是對股市悲觀的人，但是他認為低利率會讓股市支撐，但是也只是暫時的。 "I'm not a big fan of stocks, particularly at these prices," said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. "The market is well ahead of itself. So, you can count me in the bear camp. However, as long as interest rates stay low and somewhat benign, that's really what's been keeping stocks where they are." “在這個時間點，我不會想進場” Sanchez說，CNBC的創辦人。”市場遠超過它本身，你可以說我是看衰陣營的人，但是我會說，只要仍維持低利率和保持溫和，市場仍會站在高點” Sanchez thinks rates will have to move higher to cause the market to tumble. "The fundamentals just don't support valuations where they are," she said. "I'm not sure what it is that kicks the legs out from under this market, but something is coming. It's hard to call the timing on it. But, what I can say is this isn't a value here." Sanchez認為利率提高將造成股市下跌。”本質上股市沒辦法支撐它本身，我不知道誰會把股市踢下去，但是很快就要來了，我不能說是現在，但是我能說現在的股市不值這個價 ” 3.心得/評論(必需填寫)：雖然是不負責任翻譯，也花了許多時間心力，有錯煩請告知，謝謝小抱怨: 很討厭那些整天吵要明牌的人 -- 看到雙馬尾可愛女孩的笑容，我可以配三碗飯! http://ppt.cc/vkuT 聽到雙馬尾可愛女孩叫我哥哥，我可以折返跑101三趟! http://ppt.cc/FKk6 雙馬尾，故我在 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.43.194.120 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1402587935.A.00A.html ※ 編輯: humbler (114.43.194.120), 06/12/2014 23:49:57

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