[標的] 3474華亞科已回收
1. 標的:
3474 華亞科
2. 進場理由
a.基本面:
Dram 變寡占市場 美光及海力士專利交叉授權
三星自家3C商品也是一堆需要Dram,沒道理壓低Dram價格讓對手成本下降
幾年前Dram也是賣一隻賺一隻 各廠狂蓋晶圓廠後來倒光
現在沒聽到哪家再蓋新晶圓廠
相較於同樣是景氣循環股的彩晶
彩晶是靠減資提早回到票面價值 華亞科靠實力大賺百億回到票面價值
中國廠商面板一家一家蓋,產能一家一家產出,有點像幾年前的Dram
中國廠商要切入Dram,資本要很大和技術有困難,比較不會有低價搶市的問題
華亞科是台塑及美光集團股 名門正派 彩晶是焦家的股票
彩晶第一季EPS 0.37元 股價11.25 華亞科第一季EPS 1.85 剛好彩晶5倍
華亞科股價現在只有34.3
b.技術面:強勢整理中
c.籌碼面:無融資卷 外資賣超有減少趨勢 等GDR賣壓整理完可望可以繼續向上
外資40萬張GDR成本在31.5 下檔有限
d.消息面:
第二季產能滿載 Dram報價持續上漲
MSCI指數有望納入華亞科
董事長在股東會說希望華亞科全年獲利能彌平累積虧損
(我是不相信啦,真的話今年EPS就爆表了,但至少對營運很樂觀)
3. 進場價格:
24.X
34.X 加碼
逢拉回找時機加碼
4. 停損價格:
31 要死也要拉外資一起死
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