[新聞] 奇!利空天天爆 外資日日買已回收
1.原文連結:
http://ppt.cc/2Ebb
2.內容:
奇!利空天天爆 外資日日買
IC封裝測試龍頭廠商日月光身陷廢水排放風暴,股價因而重挫,但外資卻一路相挺
、消息爆發後天天買超,近4個交易日合計達10.3萬張,昨(12) 日更將股價買到
收紅0.05元,美銀美林證券評估最後若仍得停廠,4至6周還是在可忍受範圍內。
不過,市場對連日狂買日月光的外資背後的真正身分非常好奇,因為連負責接單的
外資交易室主管都直呼不可思議:「若非賭定廠房不會停,以日月光今年以來的股
價漲幅來看,多數人都會選擇先獲利了結後再來找買點,近日這種買進邏輯真的少
見!」
日月光事件愈演愈烈,國際機構投資人倒是「越跌越買」,至昨已連續4個交易日買
超合計達10.3萬張,昨天甚至將股價由黑推向小漲0.05元收27.65元。美林證券亞太
區科技產業研究部主管何浩銘(Dan Heyler )指出,這起事件最後調查結果若是日
月光蓄意排放廢水,除了60萬元罰金外,將會加上暫時性停廠作為懲罰, 但現在談
論對日月光影響仍言之過早,因為評估對日月光而言 ,停廠期間若在4至6周內都在
可控制範圍內,超過才會衝擊到市占率。
何浩銘表示,日月光K7廠占IC ATM與集團營收比重分別達14%與9%,K7廠30%至35%
的營收來自於凸塊、K7廠占整體凸塊業務營收比重逾60%。
當然,市場合理懷疑日月光K7若停廠,將造成訂單轉向矽品等競爭對手的現象,不過
何浩銘認為,哪家競爭對手市占率會因此受惠,完全取決於封裝測試是否為客戶的第
二委外夥伴。若由此觀之,矽品覆晶封裝產能已滿,故增加空間已有限,若停廠時間
控制在1至2個月內,日月光應該可以妥善因應,至於晶圓凸塊,考量到客戶庫存、第
二委外夥伴、淡季等因素,停廠4至6周應該還在可接受範圍內。
浩銘指出,儘管日月光短線股價會因為此一利空消息與淡季效應而呈現震盪,但不會
影響到明年由封裝測試與SiP帶來的成長題材,且封裝測試產業可能會出現一波整併
潮,預估明年第1季ATM與EMS業務營收將分別較今年第4季下滑10%與18%。
3.心得/評論(必需填寫):
該跑? 還是已經來不及跑?
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