[心得] 從季線操作法看台股趨勢

看板Stock作者mathbug (頂娃子 VS 哈巴子)時間15年前 (2008/09/11 17:20)推噓9(9推 0噓 8→)

留言17則, 10人參與討論串1/1

============ 先介紹(大盤)季線操作法 =============== 1. 以每日收盤計算，採66-ema, 當收盤收在季線之上 -> 做多當收盤收在季線之下 -> 做空 2. 季線操作法的特色在於 A. 非常簡單 B. 勝率非常低，賺一次賠好幾次 C. 大賺(當趨勢出來後) 小賠(季線附近的進出) ======= 季線操作法透露出最簡易的中長期大盤趨勢 ========== 由於它的低勝率，許多人並不同意單看季線上下就斷多空趨勢但是數據會說話，我以十年資料證明，每次進出成本算6點(比照期貨) 每年都賺(平均約1000點/年) 十年多(1998-2008)約12000點新政府上任後，六月九日左右破季線，至今約2330點 <-- 非常明顯的趨勢會不會超過2000年的3286點(參考以下資料) 我不知道但是尊重趨勢是股市存活的法門之一 ======== 進出資料 ============================= 做多進出利做空進出利 1998/2/2 1998/4/14 353.47 1998/4/14 1998/4/15 -48.73 1998/4/15 1998/4/16 -33.1 1998/4/16 1998/7/17 741.35 1998/7/17 1998/7/21 -89.66 1998/7/21 1998/10/30 841.74 1998/10/30 1998/11/3 -36.02 1998/11/3 1998/11/17 -66.46 1998/11/17 1998/12/10 -89.33 1998/12/10 1999/3/8 610.61 1999/3/8 1999/7/16 973.62 1999/7/16 1999/8/13 -220.47 1999/8/13 1999/9/27 127.88 1999/9/27 1999/10/12 -81.44 1999/10/12 1999/10/18 -96.11 1999/10/18 1999/11/1 -75.63 1999/11/1 1999/11/2 -99.3 1999/11/2 1999/11/18 -2.47 1999/11/18 1999/11/26 -128.62 1999/11/26 1999/11/29 -234.46 1999/11/29 1999/11/30 -109.03 1999/11/30 1999/12/1 -51.33 1999/12/1 1999/12/9 -33.36 1999/12/9 1999/12/13 -150.77 1999/12/13 1999/12/16 -149.85 1999/12/16 1999/12/20 -49.18 1999/12/20 2000/3/13 1023.01 2000/3/13 2000/3/22 -263.44 2000/3/22 2000/4/17 -81.71 2000/4/17 2000/5/17 -98.06 2000/5/17 2000/5/22 -284.17 2000/5/22 2000/6/5 -156.64 2000/6/5 2000/6/12 -8.77 2000/6/12 2001/1/16 3286.5 2001/1/16 2001/2/27 5.75 2001/2/27 2001/3/7 -108.44 2001/3/7 2001/3/9 -102.7 2001/3/9 2001/3/15 -68.31 2001/3/15 2001/3/19 -106.85 2001/3/19 2001/3/22 -95.06 2001/3/22 2001/4/2 -129.22 2001/4/2 2001/11/7 1443.58 2001/11/7 2002/5/2 1703.68 2002/5/2 2002/10/23 1271.95 2002/10/23 2002/10/25 -31.82 2002/10/25 2002/10/28 -43.31 2002/10/28 2002/10/29 -53.24 2002/10/29 2002/10/31 -31.01 2002/10/31 2002/11/1 -84.59 2002/11/1 2002/11/4 -89.13 2002/11/4 2002/11/5 -23.58 2002/11/5 2002/11/6 -165.24 2002/11/6 2002/11/21 -151.89 2002/11/21 2002/11/22 -134.16 2002/11/22 2002/11/28 -101.01 2002/11/28 2002/11/29 -40.09 2002/11/29 2002/12/13 -64.55 2002/12/13 2003/1/3 -44.18 2003/1/3 2003/2/7 103.05 2003/2/7 2003/3/20 130.12 2003/3/20 2003/3/21 -18.33 2003/3/21 2003/4/7 5.09 2003/4/7 2003/4/9 -44.44 2003/4/9 2003/4/16 -77.93 2003/4/16 2003/4/24 -240.38 2003/4/24 2003/5/26 -96.63 2003/5/26 2003/11/27 1269 2003/11/27 2003/12/1 -135.6 2003/12/1 2003/12/10 -72.75 2003/12/10 2003/12/11 -69.63 2003/12/11 2003/12/17 -121.04 2003/12/17 2003/12/22 -89.1 2003/12/22 2003/12/29 -36.22 2003/12/29 2003/12/30 -67.86 2003/12/30 2004/3/22 487.17 2004/3/22 2004/3/29 -120.19 2004/3/29 2004/4/29 -77.9 2004/4/29 2004/8/23 735.24 2004/8/23 2004/10/15 153.85 2004/10/15 2004/11/3 -48.03 2004/11/3 2004/11/22 -30.43 2004/11/22 2004/11/23 -18.68 2004/11/23 2004/11/26 -78.45 2004/11/26 2004/11/30 -72.11 2004/11/30 2004/12/1 -52.14 2004/12/1 2004/12/2 -75.33 2004/12/2 2005/1/12 5.13 2005/1/12 2005/1/17 -72.19 2005/1/17 2005/1/19 -55.92 2005/1/19 2005/1/31 -104.88 2005/1/31 2005/3/17 32.24 2005/3/17 2005/3/18 -17.48 2005/3/18 2005/3/22 -31.16 2005/3/22 2005/3/25 -53.12 2005/3/25 2005/3/29 -110.67 2005/3/29 2005/5/6 -12.72 2005/5/6 2005/5/11 -56.83 2005/5/11 2005/5/13 -70.35 2005/5/13 2005/5/16 -61.6 2005/5/16 2005/5/19 -50.83 2005/5/19 2005/5/23 -91.26 2005/5/23 2005/5/26 -59.97 2005/5/26 2005/8/16 296.98 2005/8/16 2005/10/4 94.28 2005/10/4 2005/10/5 -13.11 2005/10/5 2005/11/10 140.64 2005/11/10 2006/3/8 465.2 2006/3/8 2006/3/9 -32.9 2006/3/9 2006/3/14 -32.46 2006/3/14 2006/3/15 -64.69 2007/3/15 2007/8/15 891.08 2007/8/15 2007/8/30 -184.17 2007/8/30 2007/11/8 160.37 2007/11/8 2008/2/25 645.27 2008/2/25 2008/3/13 -81.32 2008/3/13 2008/3/20 -132.63 2008/3/20 2008/5/26 364.21 2008/5/26 2008/5/27 -76.56 2008/5/27 2008/5/28 -118.66 2008/5/28 2008/6/5 -78.73 2008/6/5 2008/6/9 -156.5 2008/6/9 2008/9/11 2336.01 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.195.205.38

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sanderwang

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victor740519

09/11 17:28, , 3^F

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