[閒聊] 計算了一些抽牌和抽卡包的機率

看板Shadowverse作者lintsu (我惠我惠)時間7年前 (2017/06/16 11:38)推噓17(17推 0噓 10→)

留言27則, 23人參與討論串1/1

用程式計算了一下一些簡單的機率(數字為四捨五入) [表格] 先攻全力找卡拿到機率意思是收抽沒抽到就全換，未考慮抽牌卡(摸頭、哥布林法師等等) 簡單結論請直接下一頁目標卡牌數 (6=3張目標+3張拉指定牌，例如放3女僕拉3旗) 回合數 1 2 3 6 -------------------------------------- 1 17.5% 32.31% 44.78% 71.14% 2 20.0% 36.41% 49.8% 76.39% 3 22.5% 40.38% 54.5% 80.82% 4 25.0% 44.23% 58.91% 84.53% 5 27.5% 47.95% 63.02% 87.62% 6 30.0% 51.54% 66.84% 90.18% 7 32.5% 55.0% 70.39% 92.29% 8 35.0% 58.33% 73.68% 94.0% 9 37.5% 61.54% 76.72% 95.39% 10 40.0% 64.62% 79.51% 96.49% 11 42.5% 67.56% 82.07% 97.37% 12 45.0% 70.38% 84.41% 98.06% 13 47.5% 73.08% 86.54% 98.59% 14 50.0% 75.64% 88.46% 98.99% 15 52.5% 78.08% 90.19% 99.29% 16 55.0% 80.38% 91.74% 99.52% 17 57.5% 82.56% 93.12% 99.68% 18 60.0% 84.62% 94.33% 99.79% 19 62.5% 86.54% 95.39% 99.87% 20 65.0% 88.33% 96.32% 99.92% 21 67.5% 90.0% 97.11% 99.96% 22 70.0% 91.54% 97.77% 99.98% 23 72.5% 92.95% 98.33% 99.99% 24 75.0% 94.23% 98.79% 99.99% 25 77.5% 95.38% 99.15% 100.0% 26 80.0% 96.41% 99.43% 100.0% 27 82.5% 97.31% 99.65% 100.0% 28 85.0% 98.08% 99.8% 100.0% 29 87.5% 98.72% 99.9% 100.0% 30 90.0% 99.23% 99.96% 100.0% 31 92.5% 99.62% 99.99% 100.0% 32 95.0% 99.87% 100.0% 100.0% 33 97.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% -------------------------------------- 一些常見機率(未考慮摸頭等等抽牌、濾牌卡)：旗皇3+3 4回合有旗機率 & 復仇吸3+3 4回合可以進復仇機率 84.53%(先攻) 87.62%(後攻) 蛙皇3張蛙 3回合有蛙機率 54.5%(先攻) 58.91%(後攻) 下面，沒列在表格上另外算的，高費牌持有機率考慮通常高費關鍵牌還是會換掉避免卡手，下面數據是先攻、三張全換、抽到目標高費也會換掉的機率 (沒計算拉牌、濾牌，所以實際通常會更高) 5T快皇手上有星爆 52.97% 6T死靈手上有死祝 57.84% 7T死靈手上有ㄇㄐㄐ 62.36% 9T天盾教手上有天盾 70.4% 再強調一次，以上數據皆未計算濾牌。可以查表觀察一下濾牌效益。 ------------------------- 抽卡包機率抽一包有虹卡機率: 11.39% 抽十包有虹卡機率: 70.15% 首抽 48 包無虹卡: 3% <---- 為什麼會算這個，因為我中獎過.. 10抽虹卡數量期望值: 1.2張首抽48包虹卡期望值: 5.76張 -- 本著作係採用創用 CC 姓名標示-相同方式分享 4.0 國際授權條款授權. 轉貼及改著之權利請參考：https://goo.gl/O3cqZp -- 自動發P幣請愛用 MumiGiveP #1OoJcbq- (EZsoft) Mac也能用喔! https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/EZsoft/M.1489582501.A.D3E.html -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 49.214.162.188 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Shadowverse/M.1497584315.A.6AE.html

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