[轉錄]The “Luck” Stats
※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板]
作者: tulas (tulas) 看板: MLB
標題: The “Luck” Stats
時間: Sat Jun 30 18:02:41 2007
: 推 waitla:Penny上下半季也完全不是同一個等級的選手阿 XD~ 06/30 12:48
: → shancko:推Penny上下季完全不同 XD 06/30 12:53
: 推 HXZ:XD 06/30 12:56
: 推 CGary:XD,去年1st 10-2,今年2nd 不知道會不會跟去年有拼唷?:p 06/30 13:01
看到這篇推文,想起來THT這篇對FB玩家的忠告
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The “Luck” Stats
Posted by David Gassko at 4:14pm
一切都是運氣，嚇不了我的～～
A pitcher’s performance in any given season is something like 40% skill and
60% luck. That statement may sound extreme, but it’s the truth. So you can
imagine just how much luck plays into a pitcher’s performance when we’re
only halfway through the year, and just how much that might impact your
fantasy team.
一個投手在任何特定球季的成績大概都包含了百分之四十的技能和百分之六十的運氣。
這個論述可能聽起來有點偏激，但這是事實。所以你可以想像有多少好運投進了一個投
手的半季成績裡，而其中又有多少可能動搖你的夢幻隊伍。
Luckily, The Hardball Times tracks a few very important “luck” statistics
for pitchers, and we’re going to take a look today at which hurlers may be
due for a downturn in their performance.
幸運的是，關於投手，THT有在追蹤一些非常重要的好運統計，今天我們將要看看哪些投手
可能因此在往後產生成績的衰退。
The first of these numbers is how many home runs a pitcher allows per
outfield fly ball. My research in The Hardball Times Annual 2007 indicates
that pitchers do have some control over HR/F, but not much. Most end up
tightly clustered around an average of about 11%.
第一個數字是一個投手製造的飛球中有多少成為全壘打。
在The Hardball Times Annual 2007中，我的研究指出投手可以稍微控制HR/F，但不多。
大部分HR/F的比率都圍繞著大約11％的平均值緊緊地聚在一起。
This early in the season, however, those numbers vary quite a bit. Let’s
look at the five pitchers with the lowest HR/F in the major leagues:
然而，在今年此時這些數字卻偏離了(平均值)相當多.
Name HR/F
Jake Peavy 1.2%
Brad Penny 2.4%
Chris Young 3.0%
Kelvim Escobar 4.9%
Tim Hudson 5.5%
You can tell that these numbers are unsustainable. PETCO Field does prevent
fly balls from becoming home runs at a higher than average rate, but
certainly it is not so extreme as to give hope that Peavy and Young will
continue to avoid the gopher ball as they have.
你可以說這些數字無法維持下去。PETCO Field(教士主場)的確高於平均地妨礙了一些
飛球成為全壘打，但顯然這不是這麼極端到可以希望PV＆CY能夠繼續地避免掉他們本來
就該被打的全壘打。
Because home runs are so damaging, these are all guys who should expect to
see large bumps in their ERAs (except, perhaps, for Hudson). If you can
convince another owner that they will continue to pitch as well as they have,
I suggest you sell now.
因為全壘打是多麼地有害，所以全部玩家都應該預計到這些投手的ERA將會有巨大的衝擊
（或許哈神是例外）。 假如你能夠說服其他玩家相信這些投手仍然會投的跟現在一樣出
色，我建議你現在賣出。
Another “luck” stat for pitchers is line drive rate. My article in the THT
Annual found no year-to-year correlation in line drive percentage from one
year to the next, which means that all pitchers allow around the same number
of liners. What I did find, however, was that line drives were the worst type
of batted ball to allow, as they drop for hits three-quarters of the time.
另一個關於投手的好運統計是平飛比例(LD%)。在THT Annual中，我的文章發現前一個年
度的LD%與下一個年度的LD%不存在年際的相關性，這表示所有投手都容許大致相同數量的
平飛球。然而，就我發現的，平飛球是投手被擊出去的球中最糟糕的一種型態，其中四分
之三都會落在地上形成安打。
Who can we expect to allow a larger number of hits the rest of the way? Let’
s have a look at the pitchers who have allowed the fewest number of line
drives per batted ball:
我們能期待哪個投手可以被打大量的安打而游刃有餘? 讓我們看看哪些投手提供了最低的
LD%：
Name LD%
Paul Maholm 13.3%
Chad Durbin 13.9%
Joe Kennedy 14.2%
Fausto Carmona 14.2%
Daniel Cabrera 14.2%
In case you were thinking that my findings couldn’t be right, and that
better pitchers generally allow fewer line drives, this list of leaders
should show you that isn’t really the case.
假使你認為我的發現不正確，而且認為較好的投手通常被打較少的平飛球。這份領先者名
單應該可以告訴你，你錯了。
Maholm, Carmona, and Kennedy have actually had some bad luck in other places
to make up for the good karma they have received with line drives. But Durbin
and Kennedy are due for a steep fall back to earth, and you should let go of
them before that happens.
馬洪、小王二世和甘乃迪顯然在別的地方產生壞運而中和了LD％低的好運。但杜賓和甘
乃迪應該會一個犁田暴跌回地球，你應該在犁田發生前脫手。
The third statistic we’re going to look at is left-on-base percentage.
Unlike LD%, LOB% is far from being all about luck. Better pitchers generally
leave a higher proportion of hitters on-base because it is harder to string
together a series of hits or walks against them. (A couple good articles on
LOB% can be found here and here.)
我們即將介紹的第三個統計量是殘壘率。不像LD%，LOB%不完全受運氣所影響。好的投手
通常會有較高的LOB%，因為打者們在面對好投手時較難將安打或保送串連在一起。(這裡
可以發現一堆關於LOB%的好文章）
Nonetheless, LOB% is also a luck-intensive statistic, and it can pinpoint
pitchers whose ERAs are about to soar. Let’s look at the leaders.
但是LOB%仍然還是一個運氣成分重的統計量，而且它能精確地指出哪個投手即將擁有高漲
的ERA。來看看領先者吧。
Name LOB%
John Maine 83.8%
Rich Hill 83.3%
Johan Santana 82.1%
Dan Haren 81.8%
Brad Penny 81.2%
Brad Penny makes a second appearance in this article, which means that if you
own him, you need to be selling now. Seriously, don’t even read this to the
end, just go.
戴佩妮已經在這篇文章出現第二次了，這意味著假如你擁有她，你最好現在就把她賣掉。
我說真的，甚至不需要把文章讀完，快去阿。
As you can see, we do have a pretty good list of pitchers here, but all of
them are due to stumble somewhat, Maine and Haren (and Penny) especially.
就像你看到的，在這裡我們有一份非常好的投手名單，但他們全部都顯的有些踉蹌。
特別是姜麵＆哈輪（當然，不要忘了戴佩妮）
Evaluating pitchers is a complex art, and sometimes all the luck that plays
into their numbers makes it darn near impossible. But by looking more closely
at their individual statistics, we can get an idea of which pitchers are
playing in over their heads.
對投手評價是一門複雜的藝術，有時全部的運氣會一股跑進投手的數據而使得評價投手這
件事"彼娘之"接近不可能。但是藉著更仔細地檢視投手們獨特的統計資料，我們可以知道
哪個投手即將吃下洩藥。
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打完才發現好像PO到FB比較適合～～科科
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