[Farm] Ryan O'Hearn Adjustment Changes His Prospect Rating
http://goo.gl/900UAi
剛好前幾天提到兩個在A開季火熱的1B 這篇是在講O'Hearn (沒比賽就加減看農場吧)
When you're an amateur scout like myself often times, actually more often
than not, you have to admit you may have been wrong in an assessment or
too conservative. Thus is the case with Ryan O'Hearn of the Wilmington
Blue Rocks and Kansas City Royals organization. Coming into the year,
I ranked O'Hearn extremely conservative in comparison to some of the
prospect for the following reasons:
Age – At age 21 O'Hearn was right about average for the levels that
he performed at; not old, but not young either, and playing players without
his level of experience.
Strikeouts – Considering he was of average age, the number of strikeouts
had climbed at a decent clip at every bump in the road so far in his journey
going from 20% at Idaho Falls, 24% at Lexington and 29% at Wilmington in his
graduation at the end of the year. The power numbers had flashed above rate
at both Idaho Falls and Lexington but the large K rate wouldn’t be
sustainable if he continued to climb levels.
Positional flexibility – After the draft of O'Hearn, Baseball America had
mentioned that O'Hearn had a slight chance of playing a corner outfield with
his average positional speed. While that can be read as a positive for most
organizations, the facts are that with the Royals it just wasn't going to be
likely with one of the largest outfields in the league and a front office
that knows they need defensive speed in the outfield. For a team and a
manager who doubts whether Reymond Fuentes is good enough in a corner to play
over Paulo Orlando against some right-handed pitchers, how was Ryan O'Hearn
ever going to be good enough to play in the outfield? It just wasn't going
to happen therefore O’Hearn is a first base only guy and any first base only
guy has to hit a ton, that can be a negative even for some elite prospects.
With those reasons I placed O'Hearn in the high teens/low 20’s ranking with
a wait and see near Balbino Fuenmayor as both players who could possibly
groove into the positions as future inexpensive first base/DH types when
Kendrys Morales (Balbino) or Eric Hosmer (O'Hearn) departs via free agency.
Seeing both players as similar to what Clint Robinson had been with the org
previously, a capable first baseman if given a chance but not a likely
All Star.
After ten games, it appears that my assessment of O'Hearn definitely needs
to be altered with him showing a change in his game. That change is an
ability to alter his game that the defense and opponent is playing against
him as teams in the Carolina league have gone to playing the shift against
him which O'Hearn has shown he can beat not only with hits to that side but
plenty of power that way as well.
This is a definite change for O'Hearn as he’s already hit his two out of
the park home runs to left as well as a few doubles deep to that side and
plenty of other hits as well. Compared to his ’15 chart which featured two
home runs for the year to the left side and the majority of his damage to
center and right. My assumption was as he moved up the chain that one trick
pony would start to lessen as he climbed against the competition.
其實仔細去看 他的14年成績也是建立在相反方向的攻擊 當年有超過一半的HR落在
中左外野 只是不知道為什麼去年這個能力不見了 而反應在成績的就是退步 而且他的
STYLE也越來越符合KC的進攻哲學 低保送低三振 今年的BB%和K%都遠低於生涯平均
(原文還有提到和Hoz跟Myers的比較 我是覺得在A的年齡差太多 沒有比較的意義就不貼)
Troubling signs – While catcher Chase Vallot has hit at an extremely strong
level (.367/.474/.667) at Low-A Lexington to start the year he’s struggling
behind the dish defensively. Early into the year Vallot has already allowed
four passed balls to squeak through while runners are successful in 14 of 17
stolen base attempts. The offensive end of his game is definitely the most
important part to his career going forward but any organization with Ned Yost
running the major league team will not likely allow itself to give catching
time to a less than average backstop defensively.
除了O'Hearn 這篇還順到提了Vallot 這也是很值得長期觀察的新秀 根據其他的報導
知道他的防守還有很大的空間 (但沒想到似乎有點糟XD) 雖然大多數的人還是認為
以他的年紀加上不錯的學習態度 應該是有機會繼續留在捕手這個位置 加上有Salvy在
球團應該會願意多花ㄧ些時間等他成長 而他最吸引人的當然是長打力(目前才19歲)
唯一要擔心的就是過高的三振率 不過開季到目前維持的都不錯 連帶的BB%也有進步
今年就繼續待在A-練防守吧(以他的身材 似乎不像有改練其他守位的條件 XD)
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