Thoughts on the Eric Hosmer Promotion
by John Sickels on May 6, 2011 12:15 PM
Additional Thoughts on Eric Hosmer
There seems to be a split among Kansas City Royals fans about the promotion
of Eric Hosmer. Some think it is crazy and short-sighted, others think it is
a wise move. Here is my position.
First, some points of clarification.
關於Eric Hosmer的一些心得
皇家球迷對於Eric Hosmer升級有些分歧的看法。某些人認為此舉白爛短視，某些人則認
為這是明智的作法。首先我有幾點必須澄清。
Point One: I'm a Twins fan, not a Royals fan. I follow the Royals very
closely because I live nearby, but I'm not a particular fan of the team. I
don't hate them either, but I don't have an emotional concern here. I don't
have Hosmer on a fantasy team,
第一點：我是雙城迷，不是皇家迷。非常關注皇家是因為我家住附近。但我沒特別迷那隊
，也不討厭他們，簡單來說沒有主觀的意見。玩fantasy也沒有加Hosmer。
Point Two: I am generally against rushing players, and I think most players
benefit from a full year at each level. This is not a hard-and-fast rule that
applies to everyone, but I think it is a useful guideline. I would rather be
too conservative about promoting a player than too aggressive.
第二點：大體上我反對揠苗助長，在每個層級都打滿整季對大多數球員才是比較有好處的
。雖然這鐵律不一定適合每個人，但我認為這是有效的準則。對球員升級的做法
是寧可超保守也不可胡亂躁進。
Point Three: As a GM, I think Dayton Moore has done a lot of things right in
terms of building the farm system, drafting well, and (most importantly)
convincing ownership to actually put money into the team. It's amazing what
your scouts can do when you actually have the resources for player
development, which was the biggest problem in KC previously. On the negative
side, many of Moore's moves on the major league roster haven't worked well,
and in my view there seems to be an excessive fetish for ex-Braves in the
organization.
Overall, it's a mixed picture, but the organization is certainly in
better shape than it was five years ago. I'm neither a basher nor a booster,
and am quite willing to see how "the process" works out. Maybe it is just
easier for me to take that approach since I'm not emotionally invested, but
that's the way I see it.
第三點：作為總管，我認為Dayton Moore在打造農場系統方面有很多好評，除了選秀選得
不錯外，最重要的是，居然能說服老闆掏錢出來投資球隊。
過去願意多花點資源來養農場的話，球探的工作成果才會讓你驚喜。
這也是KC之前最大的問題。
而 Moore的負評是在大聯盟名冊上搞的許多舉動實在有點鳥，在我看來大家
似乎是過度迷信這位前勇士最佳總管了。
總體而言，球隊優缺點全部摻在一起做瀨尿牛丸。但可以肯定是該隊比五年前強
很多。我不是酸民也不是護駕王，但我很願意看到“這過程”如何解決。提出建
議對我來說很簡單，因為我對皇家沒啥感情，何況當局者迷旁觀者清。
Point Four: I have been pro-Kila Ka'aihue, possibly because I've been
watching the guy play in the minors for many years at the A, AA, and AAA
levels. I've seen him at his worst, locked in a long slump, his swing messed
up, unable to handle either good fastballs or breaking stuff. I've also seen
him at his best, when his swing is working well and he's destroying everything
thrown his way. I still think he's capable of hitting enough to be useful in
the majors, and that 326 plate appearances spread out over three seasons isn't
a true test of his ability, especially given that he often needs adjustment
time at new levels. Given enough playing time, I think he would figure thing
out well enough to be at least a useful complementary platoon bat.
第四點：我是比較支持 Kila Ka'aihue啦，大概是因為這傢伙打小聯盟時，我就一路看他
從A 到AA最後爬到3A等級。我曾經看到他臉上寫我好慘，不只長期處在低潮，揮
棒動作亂七八糟，速球和變化球也處理不了。但我也看過他臉上寫我很屌，當他
揮棒很順時，他可以打爆往他投來的任何東西。而且我仍然認為他的打擊天賦在
大聯盟是夠用的，過去三季打了 326個PA不夠顯示他的能力，特別是在高階你必
須給他足夠的調整時間以及上場空間。我想他也非常了解起碼得當個有用的輔助
棒才能上場。
Point Five: I think promoting Eric Hosmer is the right thing to do for team.
The major league team is playing decently. Even if they win just 85 games,
that could be enough to contend for the division title this year. There is a
morale factor to consider here: the organization itself is tired of losing
and the fan base entered the season rather demoralized and impatient.
The front office is well-aware of this factor (Moore made that point to
me himself this spring), and even a .500 season would go a long way towards
boosting spirits in the city and the front office.
Hosmer, right now, is unlikely to be weaker with the bat than Kila
currently is, has a good chance to be better, and is a superior defensive
player. If the Royals were in last place and had no chance to compete, then
sure, you're screwed anyway, so give Kila another 300 at-bats to see if he
can figure things out. But that's not the situation right now. They have a
chance to be decent this year, and Hosmer is more likely to help them stay
that way than Kila is, as it currently stands.
第五點：我認為把Eric Hosmer 拉上來對球團來說是對的。這支大聯盟球隊目前打的還不
賴。就算他們本季只贏85場好了，拿分區冠軍還是很有可能的。但他們士氣可能
會是敗筆，雖然球隊討厭輸球，但進場的球迷一點都不熱情也沒啥耐性。
球團高層非常清楚這點(在春天時Moore親自告訴我的)，就算本季以五成勝率結尾
，距離振奮這城市人心和高層的目標，還有很長的路要走。
現今的Hosmer的棒子目前看起來不比Kila弱，甚至有機會更強，而且是個守備優
越的選手。假使皇家名次現在是倒數的，沒機會挑戰季後賽，那肯定的是，你現
在會靠北。那麼順便再給Kila 300個打數看看他是否可以脫離低潮吧！不過現在
不是那假設的情形，本季皇家有機會打個帥氣的一年，Hosmer對球隊的幫助可能
比Kila還多。
Point Six: There are two reasons not to promote Hosmer: if you think it would
harm his long-term development, and money, and I don't think either of these
issues overrides point five.
Hosmer is destroying Triple-A. Everything I'm hearing about his
performance indicates that it isn't a fluke, and that the Pacific Coast
League doesn't have much left to teach him about hitting. I am generally
opposed to rushing players, and I think that most players benefit from a full
season at each level. But there are exceptions, and Hosmer looks like one to
me. I don't think bringing him to the majors now is a significant risk to his
career.
As for the money issue, we don't know if the whole "super-two" service
time issue will even be a factor once the new Basic Agreement comes into
play. Even if it does, if Hosmer turns out to be as good as expected, you're
going to have to pay him the big bucks, anyway. If the team plays well this
year, the club's finances will improve anyhow. I am generally very much an
advocate of long-term thinking, but if bringing Hosmer up now increases my
chance to contend this year, then I'm not going to worry so much about what
the team's salary structure is going to look like in 2015.
第六點：反對者有兩個理由認為不該拉Hosmer：此舉這會傷害他長期的成長，以及讓
球隊增加薪資負擔。但這兩個理由不足推翻第五點。
Hosmer目前是屠殺3A的狀態。我所聽過他的任何表現都顯示出那不是僥倖，
且Pacific Coast League已經沒東西可以敎他打擊了。基本上我反對倉促拉
拔球員，還有我認為大多數球員每個層級都打滿整個球季才是最有好處的。
但有例外，Hosmer對我來說就是其中之一。我不認為現在拉他上大聯盟會傷
害他的棒球生涯。
至於錢的方面，在新的基本勞資協定發揮作用前，我們不知道薪資仲裁議題
是否會是個問題，假設那造成問題，那也是說Hosmer已經好到可以期待，而
且你得付筆大條的薪水給他。如果皇家今年也打的不錯，那麼球團的財務負
擔肯定會增加。但我主張把眼光放遠，把Hosmer拉上來增加我們球隊今年的
競爭力，球隊薪資結構會變成怎樣要到2015後才需要擔心。
My basic conclusion is this: given all these factors, balancing the long-term
and short-term needs of the organization, and even as a person who is
pro-Kila, I would promote Hosmer, too.
I would then turn my attention to
1) Finding someone to replace Kyle Davies, who is just not going to improve.
I AM averse to promoting Dan Duffy too quickly, and don't want to see Duffy
up before mid-July.
2) Finding some additional outfield depth; Gordon, Cabrera, and Francoeur
won't stay hot forever, especially if you keep playing them every single day
3) Disabuse myself of the notion that Jason Kendall has anything left in the
tank, and look for some catching. Luke May and Manuel Pina at Omaha aren't
the answer.
4) Drafting Bubba Starling
我的基本結論是：
综合所有觀點，如何把球團的長期需求和短期需求平衡才是最重要的一
件事。即便我身為一個支持Kila的球迷，我還是會推薦Hosmer上來打。
然後把我的注意力放在
1.找個人取代不長進的Kyle Davies，我也反對太快拉Dan Duffy，起碼
七月中之前不想看到他。
2.尋找增加外野深度的戰力：Gordon，Cabrera，和Francoeur的棒子不
會持續火燙太久，特別是你每天都放他們上場。
3）反省自己關於Jason Kendall還有壓箱寶的錯誤觀念，找一些捕手吧
。在Omaha的Luke May和Manuel Pina並不是答案。
4）把Bubba Starling選進來
http://0rz.tw/ewvTy
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註：1.John Sickels是小聯盟頂尖的分析專家
2.Hosmer本日大聯盟初登場4打席2三振2保送
本季屠殺3A，三圍.439/.525/.582
3."super-two"service time-
據我搜尋是指在滿兩年未滿三年的球員中年資排名前17%。且未有未執
行完的合約就可以擁有仲裁的資格，稱呼“super-two”的典故是什麼
我不太了解，有請強者補充。
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※ 編輯: poplc 來自: 61.60.223.108 (05/12 14:41)