[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Rockies Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Colorado Rockies Preview
The Rockies fell far short of their lofty expectations last year, descending to
a 74–88 record and also-ran status after winning their first National League
pennant in 2007. Manager Clint Hurdle, who will enter the 2009 season on the
final year of his contract, plans on running a tighter ship. He has stopped
short of saying the players became complacent last year after reaching the
World Series, but he wants his team to be more vigilant in its focus and not
take anything for granted. One key to a rebound will be a fast start, since the
Rockies typically stumble out of the gate and find their groove when it’s too
late — the 2007 season being the exception. Another key — not to be taken
lightly — is the Rockies’ presence in the underwhelming NL West, where every
team not named the Padres has a chance to be a factor.
Rotation
A healthy Jeff Francis would go a long way toward giving the Rockies a decent
rotation. From 2005-07, the Canadian southpaw averaged 14.7 wins and 199.1
innings pitched. Last year, bothered by left shoulder inflammation, he went 4–
10 in 143.2 innings. Aaron Cook made the All-Star team and is coming off a
breakthrough season. He won 16 games with a sub-4.00 ERA even though he gave up
more hits (236) than innings pitched (211.1) and only struck out 96 batters.
Ubaldo Jimenez has the best stuff on the staff and seems ready to put together
a complete season after making notable progress in the final three months of
2008. The Rockies acquired veteran Jason Marquis, who gives them more
experience at the back of their rotation. He is also durable, having averaged
192.1 innings yearly the past five seasons. The Rockies took pains to nurture
Jorge De La Rosa, 15–23 lifetime when he was acquired one month into last
season, and were rewarded as he finally developed some consistency. De La Rosa
will try to beat out a host of competitors for the final rotation spot, most
notably Greg Smith, a lefthander acquired in the Matt Holliday deal with
Oakland. Other names to watch are lefty Franklin Morales and righthanders Jason
Hirsh and Greg Reynolds.
Bullpen
Closer Brian Fuentes is gone, but the Rockies believe either Huston Street or
Manuel Corpas, both with experience in that role, will be able to step in.
Street saved 94 games in four years with Oakland and has more strikeouts (271)
than innings pitched (269) in his major league career. The loser of the closer
competition will get eighth-inning duty in what should be a solid bullpen that
includes Taylor Buchholz, coming off a breakthrough season, Alan Embree, a
durable lefthander who can pitch late in games, and underrated middle reliever
Jason Grilli. Lefthander Glendon Rusch, also capable of starting, can pitch in
long relief. Sidearming righthander Ryan Speier had three tours with the
Rockies last year, finishing the final one with 11.2 scoreless innings in
September. Despite the loss of Fuentes, the Rockies believe their bullpen will
be stronger in 2008.
Middle infield
Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki played very well in the second half after injuries
slowed him before the All-Star break. He can be expected to anchor the infield,
make substantial offensive contributions and provide leadership. Clint Barmes
rarely walks — 17 last season — but brings some offensive punch to second
base. He hit .290 with 11 home runs last year after spending most of 2007 in
Triple-A and hitting .220 with the Rockies in ’06. He is also very steady
defensively. Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker can also play second base.
Corners
Third baseman Garrett Atkins will supply some much-needed right-handed power in
the wake of Holliday’s departure. Atkins will be trying to rebound from what
for him was a disappointing season even though he led the team with 99 RBIs and
hit 21 homers. Atkins has defensive shortcomings, but as he showed last year,
can fill in at first base for Todd Helton. Stewart can spell Atkins and upgrade
the defense. Coming off back surgery, Helton is something of an X factor and
will get more rest this year. He’s not the slugging threat he once was but
remains a presence in the lineup and a huge plus on defense.
Outfield
With Holliday and centerfielder Willy Taveras gone, there will be a lot less
power and speed in the Rockies’ outfield. But Ryan Spilborghs, the likely
replacement for Taveras, gets on base far more often. Seth Smith, a one-time
quarterback at Ole Miss, has the purest swing of anybody on the team and likely
will split time in left with Stewart. A third baseman by trade who has
top-shelf power, Stewart is athletic enough to play the outfield. Right fielder
Brad Hawpe can be depended upon to hit for average and provide power. He has
hit at least 22 home runs with 80-plus RBIs in each of his three full seasons
in Colorado. Hawpe has a plus arm but doesn’t get great jumps on fly balls or
read them well. Also keep an eye on big time prospects Dexter Fowler and Carlos
Gonzalez.
Catching
Chris Iannetta took over as the starter last year and showed he could hit with
power — 18 homers in 333 at bats — and get on base regularly in his first
full season in the majors. He should only get better. His throwing needs to be
more consistent and likely will be. With a $3.5 million salary, Yorvit
Torrealba is a capable but expensive backup who hits opposing pitchers’
mistakes and works well with the pitching staff.
Bench
Scott Podsednik is a solid center fielder and a base-stealing threat. Baker,
who can play first base, second and third and the corner outfield positions, is
something of a liability defensively but hits with power. Smith has shown a
knack for pinch-hitting. Omar Quintanilla does a good job defensively at
shortstop and second base and has gap power. Smith has shown a knack for
pinch-hitting, rare for an inexperienced big leaguer.
Management
Knowing the free agent market would be glutted with corner outfielders,
resourceful general manager Dan O’Dowd moved quickly and traded Holliday, a
left fielder, to Oakland in November for pitchers Street and Smith and
promising outfield prospect Gonzalez. The latter is the key to a deal O’Dowd
made because Holliday can be a free agent after this season, and the Rockies, a
mid-market club with a payroll in the $70 million range, weren’t going to be
able to sign him to a long-term contract. The Rockies have a healthy farm
system, particularly with the development of Latin players, which has proven
vital for O’Dowd to execute his build-from-within plan. The club has never
developed a true No. 1 starter, which always has left the rotation somewhat
vulnerable. Still, O’Dowd, following the financial mandate of owners Charlie
and Dick Monfort and shunning lavish free agent spending, has put together a
decent group of core players.
Final analysis
The Rockies will be missing some power with the trade of Holliday. But Iannetta
and Stewart, both improving young hitters, can pick up some of that slack. So
can Helton if he’s healthy, and also Tulowitzki if he plays the way he did in
the second half after recovering from a serious leg injury. Pitching, as usual,
will be the key. The rotation should be deeper, and the bullpen, even without
Fuentes, should be a strength. Arizona appears to be the class of the NL West,
but every team has to like its chances to compete in a division that was won
with 84 wins in 2008. This team has plenty of flaws, but the Rockies should be
a factor if their key personnel can remain healthy.
Beyond the Boxscore
Pitcher’s park? There were three 1–0 games last year at Coors Field,
increasing the total to seven such games in the 14-year history of the stadium.
In the first 10 years at Coors Field (1995-2004), there were no 1–0 games. The
humidor was installed in 2002, but the first 1–0 game didn’t occur until July
9, 2005, when the Rockies beat San Diego.
Unlikely hero Omar Quintanilla hit the team’s only walk-off homer last year,
giving the Rockies a 4–3 win in 12 innings against Cincinnati. The home run
was his second in 427 career at-bats.
Daytime woes The Rockies’ 17–30 (.362) record in day games was the worst in
franchise history, the worst in the NL and second-worst in the majors behind
Baltimore’s 14–30 (.318) record.
Comeback kids The Rockies recorded their largest comeback in a win and largest
blown lead in a loss in franchise history last year. On July 4, they beat
Florida 18–17 at Coors Field after trailing by nine runs (13–4) heading into
the bottom of the fourth. The Rockies had overcome an eight-run deficit three
previous times, the last on July 4, 2004, against Detroit. The Rockies blew an 8
–0 lead on May 30 at Chicago en route to a 10–9 loss.
Attendance notes The Rockies averaged 33,128 fans last season at Coors Field,
an increase of 14.3 percent over 2007 (28,979) and the highest figure for the
team since averaging 33,801 in 2002.
Offensive The Rockies scored 747 runs, which ranked eighth in the league and
was their second-lowest total in any season not interrupted by labor trouble.
The Rockies’ run total plunged 13 percent from their pennant-winning 2007
season when they scored 860 runs and ranked second in the league.
Lack of sacrifice The Rockies recorded their first sacrifice fly April 11 in
the 10th game of the season but didn’t get a second until April 30 in their
28th game. They finished with 38 sacrifice flies, which was tied for 13th in
the league.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The Rockies were ecstatic when Christian Friedrich fell
to them with the 25th overall pick and extremely pleased with his professional
debut. At short-season Class A Tri-City, Friedrich went 2–1 with a 3.25 ERA in
eight starts, working 36 innings with 50 strikeouts and eight walks. The
southpaw from Eastern Kentucky University moved up to low Class A Asheville for
three starts, throwing very well in his last outing to finish 0–1 with a 7.50
ERA. In addition to his mound poise, Friedrich has a fastball that reaches the
low 90s and a devastating curveball that serves as his out pitch. The
21-year-old should open the season at high Class A Modesto and could reach the
majors sometime in 2011.
2007 Top Pick — Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
Appeared on the fast track until injuring his elbow. Will miss the entire 2009
season.
2006 Top Pick — Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford
Badly overmatched in two stints with the Rockies last year. Needs more time at
Triple-A.
2005 Top Pick — Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beach State
Already a fixture in the big leagues, though his 2008 season was a
disappointment.
2004 Top Pick — Chris Nelson, 2B, Redan (Ga.) High School
Switched to shortstop in AFL and did well after disappointing year at Double-A.
2003 Top Pick — Ian Stewart, 3B, La Quinta (Calif.) High School
Seized opportunity to play every day last season after beginning second tour
with Rockies soon after All-Star break.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
CF Dexter Fowler (23)
Expected to start season at Triple-A but could be in majors before long.
RHP Jhoulys Chacin (23)
Will start season at Double-A, though he could end up in the Rockies’ bullpen
sometime in 2009.
C Wilin Rosario (20)
Middle-of-the-order power hitter with strong arm and receiving skills that are
improving.
SS Hector Gomez (21)
Arm, hands, range and offense are pluses for this very gifted (but oft-injured)
player.
RHP Shane Lindsay (24)
Power pitcher slowed by injuries. Threw well in Arizona Fall League and should
open season at high Class A.
Statistician
.263 >> Rockies’ team batting average in 2008, the lowest in franchise history.
6 >> Rank of the Rockies’ average in the NL. Previously, they had never
finished below fifth in the league.
.256 >> Rockies’ average with runners in scoring position, a single-season low.
4 >> Unsuccessful attempts in September by Aaron Cook to win his 17th game
and tie the single-season franchise record. Cook went 0–1 with a
4.63 ERA in four September starts before being scratched from his
final start because of tightness in his back.
1 >> Home runs allowed by Jason Grilli in 61.1 innings after being acquired
on April 30 from Detroit.
10 >> Consecutive years with at least 61 appearances by left-handed reliever
Alan Embree, including 70 last year.
22 >> Home runs by Rockies’ catchers, which was third in the National League
behind the Cubs (26) and Braves (24).
Difference Maker
A back injury limited Todd Helton to 83 games last year, including only two
pinch-hitting appearances after July 2. The Rockies would gladly settle for a
.310 average with 20 homers and 80 RBIs from Helton, 35, who can be counted
upon for an on-base percentage around .400 and superb defense. Helton remains a
presence in the Rockies’ lineup. As manager Clint Hurdle says: “He can still
bring an awful lot. He can make a significant difference to our club in a lot
of different ways when he’s healthy.”
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