[翻譯]為什麼落磯將打敗紅襪

看板Rockies作者rahim03 (從今而後)時間16年前 (2007/10/24 21:40)推噓13(13推 0噓 9→)

留言22則, 8人參與討論串1/1

看來我們是真的很不被看好連THT這個一路寫"為什麼落磯將擊敗..."的作者Geoff Young 這次寫"為什麼落磯將擊敗紅襪"(Why the Rockies will beat the Red Sox) 感覺都有點不太相信落磯真的能擊敗紅襪 >.< 原文網址：http://0rz.tw/913bL Why the Rockies will beat the Red Sox by Geoff Young October 24, 2007 First off, I'm not sure that I believe the Rockies can beat the Red Sox. Second, I'm not sure that what I believe belongs in the equation. The Rockies seem to believe, and that could be a scary thing for the team from Boston. 首先，我不確定我相信落磯可以擊敗紅襪。第二，我也不確定我相信的情況是屬於勢均力敵的情況。落磯看來似乎這麼相信，而這對那支來自波士頓的球隊可能是令人提心吊膽的事。 Lineup 先發打線 Once again using the flawed but simple and useful metric of OPS+, here's a rundown of the starters for both clubs at each position: 再一次使用這個有缺點但簡單有用的OPS+，以下是兩隊各位置先發的比較： Catcher Yorvit Torrealba: 76 Jason Varitek: 103 Sure, Varitek had the better offensive season, but his first name isn't Yason. Eh, who am I kidding; advantage Red Sox. 當然，Varitek今年打擊比較好，但他的名字不是Yason(按：去年也有一個打擊不怎麼樣捕手名字Y開頭，在季後賽爆發，湊巧今年爆發的Torrealba名字也是Y開頭)。嗯，我在開玩笑；紅襪占優勢。 First base Todd Helton: 133 Kevin Youkilis: 117 Similar hitters, both are outstanding fielders. Youkilis' ridiculous ALCS notwithstanding, slight advantage to Rockies. 相似的打者，兩個都是傑出的野手。儘管Youkilis有相當誇張的ALCS，落磯仍有些微的優勢。 Second base Kaz Matsui: 87 Dustin Pedroia: 112 Advantage to Red Sox, but not as great as you might think. Matsui has been terrific in October. 優勢屬於紅襪的，但沒有像你可能預測的那麼大。小松井在十月可是十分恐怖的。 Third base Garrett Atkins: 113 Mike Lowell: 124 Lowell also is a better defender. Slight advantage to Red Sox. Lowell也是一個較好的防守者。紅襪有些微的優勢。 Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki: 109 Julio Lugo: 65 Tulowitzki is a very good young shortstop who sometimes is mistaken for a great young shortstop. Lugo is... alive... Tulowitzki是一個非常好的年輕游擊手，有時表現的讓人誤認為他已經是個偉大的游擊手。Lugo嘛... 還活著... Left field Matt Holliday: 151 Manny Ramirez: 126 Wow, I hadn't really looked at Ramirez' numbers before now. He had a serious down year, which of course means that he was better than most everyone else. Slight advantage to Rockies, unless the Red Sox find themselves down five runs late in a game and Ramirez hits a solo homer, in which case Boston gets extra style points. 哇，我在這之前沒真的注意過Ramirez的數據。他有個嚴重的低潮年，這當然意味著他比大部分其他球員好。落磯有些微優勢，除非紅襪在比賽後半段落後5分，而Ramirez打了支陽春砲，在這種情況波士頓可以得到額外的style points(這邊不知道怎麼翻恰當，我的理解是Ramirez打全壘打姿勢的加分 XD)。 Center field Willy Taveras: 89 Coco Crisp: 83 Two defense-first guys in center. Call it a draw. If Jacoby Ellsbury starts for Boston, maybe give the Red Sox a slight advantage on the assumption that scouting reports on him won't be as complete. 兩個在中外野防守優先的傢伙。雙方平手。如果Jacoby Ellsbury先發，在假設對他的球探報告不完整的情況下，這邊可能紅襪有些微的優勢。 Right field Brad Hawpe: 129 J.D. Drew: 105 Advantage Rockies, although as recently as last season, Drew had a higher OPS+. This one is closer than many folks might realize. 落磯優勢，雖然球季末段Drew有比較高的OPS+。這邊比許多人可能理解的狀況還接近。 Designated hitter Ryan Spilborghs: 111 David Ortiz: 171 I'm assuming the Rockies will have Spilborghs in the lineup at Fenway. Obviously the team representing the league that is still experimenting with the DH gets a huge advantage here. 我假設落磯會讓Spilborghs在芬威先發。明顯的，代表還在使用DH制度聯盟出賽的球隊，在這裡有很大的優勢。 Bench Seth Smith: 271 (8 PA) Cory Sullivan: 81 Chris Iannetta: 71 Jeff Baker: 61 Jamey Carroll: 56 Ellsbury: 131 Eric Hinske: 83 Alex Cora: 75 Doug Mirabelli: 63 Bobby Kielty: 60 This looks like a wash to me. Boston gets Ortiz over Spilborghs in games at Coors Field. (第一句不太瞭解 >.<)。在Coors的比賽，波士頓的Ortiz比Spilborghs好。 So, to summarize: Strong advantage to Rockies: shortstop Mild advantage to Rockies: first base, left field, right field Draw: center field, bench Mild advantage to Red Sox: catcher, second base, third base Strong advantage to Red Sox: DH 落磯的大優勢：游擊手落磯的小優勢：一壘、左外野、右外野打平：中外野、板凳紅襪的小優勢：捕手、二壘、三壘紅襪的大優勢：指定打擊 As you can see, this is pretty well split down the middle. The Red Sox will miss Ortiz in Colorado, where he might hit a homer every time up (and even a few when he's in the on-deck circle), but they're strong enough elsewhere that this shouldn't be a problem. The two teams are very evenly matched on offense. 不負責任快速翻譯：如你們所見，在中間的部分雙方扯平。而紅襪在科羅拉多時會失去Ortiz(沒有DH)，不過他們在其他地方夠強，所以不是什麼問題。兩隊在攻擊上平手。 Rotation How about the pitching? (We're using ERA+ here.) Jeff Francis: 112 Josh Beckett: 145 You have to ask? I like Francis, but seriously. Then again, he beat Brandon Webb in Game 1 of the NLCS, and Webb had a better year than Beckett. It's easy to dismiss this matchup, but probably not wise. 快速翻譯： Francis在NLCS打敗Webb，Webb今年比Beckett好。要打發掉這個對戰組合很容易，不過這可能不聰明。 Ubaldo Jimenez: 111 Curt Schilling: 122 Forget the ERA+, forget their ages; Schilling's playoff experience trumps everything. 忘了ERA+、年齡吧，Schilling的季後賽經驗可以勝過任何事。 Josh Fogg: 96 Daisuke Matsuzaka: 108 Fogg has been dubbed "Dragon Slayer" because he's beaten several high-profile pitchers this season. He still isn't a very good pitcher himself, but since the Rockies seem to be charmed just now, we'll call this a draw. Fogg綽號"屠龍手"，因為他今年專門幹掉倍受矚目的大投手。他仍然不是個很好的投手，但既然現在的落磯看來似乎有魔力保護，我們就當這個組合平手吧。 Aaron Cook: 116 Jon Lester: 104 Cook is an extreme groundball pitcher; Lester was susceptible to gopheritis at times this season, which could be a problem against the Rockies offense at Coors Field. Advantage Colorado. Cook是個極端的滾地球投手；Lester在這球季易受全壘打(gopheritis？)影響，在Coors 對抗落磯的攻勢時，這會是個問題。落磯優勢。 On paper, Boston's front two look a lot better than Colorado's. As Francis showed in the NLCS, though, anything can happen once you move the game from paper onto a diamond. If the Rockies can split at Fenway, they'll be in real good shape for Games 3-5 at Coors Field. 紙上談兵的話，波士頓的前兩位投手看來比落磯的好很多。但如Francis在NLCS所表現，一旦你把比賽從紙上移到球場上，任何事都可能發生。如果落磯可以在芬威打平，他們將會在Coors的G3-5有很有利的狀況。 Bullpen Next up, the relievers: Manuel Corpas: 231 Matt Herges: 162 Brian Fuentes: 155 LaTroy Hawkins: 140 Jeremy Affeldt: 137 Jorge Julio: 122 Jonathan Papelbon: 256 Manny Delcarmen: 232 Hideki Okajima: 214 Javier Lopez: 153 Mike Timlin: 139 Kyle Snyder: 124 Geez, that's a devastating bullpen the Red Sox have. Colorado's is terrific, but there isn't much of a comparison here, unless you're looking at the back-end guys. None of the Boston relievers give up many homers. If the Rockies are going to do damage, it's not going to be against these guys. 紅襪有壓倒性的牛棚。科羅拉多的(牛棚)已經非常嚇人了，但仍不能和紅襪的比較，除非你看的是(名單)後半的傢伙(按：這句不確定)。沒有任何的波士頓後援被打很多全壘打。如果落磯想要製造傷害，不要面對這些傢伙。 Conclusion For the Rockies to win this series, they need to split in Boston. They need Torrealba and Matsui to stay hotter than anyone has a right to expect. They need the young rotation to step up and stare down their more seasoned counterparts. 落磯想要贏這系列，他們需要在波士頓打平。他們需要Torrealba和小松井保持火熱。他們需要年輕的先發加速步伐和以目光壓倒擁有有更多經驗的對手(這句不確定 @@)。 The Rockies need a lot of things to go right to make this happen. What they've got going in their favor is the fact that over the past five or so weeks, virtually everything has gone right. Regardless of "true level of talent" or any other theoretical constructs we can devise, Colorado's belief in itself just might be enough to carry the Rockies past one final postseason opponent and bring a world championship to Denver. 落磯需要很多地方都有發揮來使這件事發生。他們之所以能持續火熱，事實上就是在過去的大約五週間，每一個地方都發揮得很好。不去考慮"真正的才能等級"，或任何其他我們設想的理論概念，科羅拉多對自己的信念可能足夠帶領落磯超越最後一個季後賽對手，並把冠軍帶回丹佛。 -- 英文實在不佳，錯誤難免，請大家多多指教原來在分析上贏不了，只能靠信念了 0rz Go Rockies Bring a World Championship to Denver -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.229.118.134 ※ 編輯: rahim03 來自: 61.229.118.134 (10/24 21:43)

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