Rotoworld top10 prospects
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.asp?sport=MLB&column=14
1. Ian Stewart - 3B - Age 19 - ETA: Sept. 2006
.319/.398/.594, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 112/66 K/BB, 19 SB in 505 AB for low Single-A
Asheville
Giving Rockies fans something to be excited about for the first time in a long
while, Stewart, the 10th pick of the 2003 draft, is a future All-Star at third
base. Take Todd Helton’s stats, subtract 20 points of batting average and 30-
40 walks -- which would still leave him with a fair total -- and you’ll have a
pretty good idea of what Stewart could be capable of at Coors Field. His glove
leaves something to be desired, but he should be decent enough to spend half of
his career at third base. He’s an elite prospect, and he could be a factor in
the majors as soon as mid-2006.
2. Jeff Francis - LHP - Age 24 - ETA: Now
13-1, 1.98 ERA, 73 H, 147/22 K/BB in 113 2/3 IP for Double-A Tulsa
3-2, 2.85 ERA, 35 H, 49/ 7 K/BB in 41 IP for Triple-A Colorado Springs
3-2, 5.15 ERA, 42 H, 32/13 K/BB in 36 2/3 IP for Colorado
Francis might be the game’s most polished pitching prospect. The ninth overall
pick from the 2002 draft didn’t really find his groove until a year into his
pro career, but he’s been one of the minors’ top performers since mid-2003.
Francis throws 88-92 mph and has two above average offspeed pitches -- a curve
and a change. His command is his best quality. He’s never going to excel in
Coors Field, but he probably won’t allow the park to ruin him. He’ll be a
long-term second or third starter.
3. Chris Nelson - SS - Age 19 - ETA: 2008
.347/.432/.510, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 42/20 K/BB, 6 SB in 147 AB for Rookie Casper
Nelson, the ninth pick in the 2004 draft, looks like a better prospect than the
shortstop that went first, San Diego’s Matt Bush. Everyone believes he'll hit,
and he showed why in the Pioneer League while making his pro debut. Whether
he’ll have the range to stay at shortstop is still to be determined. If he
does, his bat could make him a star. Like Ian Stewart last year, he’ll sneak
into the Top 100 less than a year after being drafted out of high school.
4. Ubaldo Jimenez - RHP - Age 21 - ETA: 2007
4-1, 2.23 ERA, 29 H, 61/12 K/BB in 44 1/3 IP for Single-A Visalia
So disappointing. Jimenez was emerging as one of the game’s top pitching
prospects last April, but a stress reaction in his shoulder blade got him shut
down in mid-May and a brief return in August went poorly. The hope is that
he’ll return at 100 percent this year. Before getting hurt, Jimenez dominated
California League hitters with mid-90s heat and an outstanding curve. It
wouldn’t be out of line to say he has ace potential. He’ll open this season
at the Rockies’ new California League affiliate in Modesto.
5. Jeff Baker - 3B - Age 23 - ETA: 2007
.325/.434/.539, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 73/47 K/BB, 1 SB in 271 AB for Single-A Visalia
.297/.343/.505, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 22/ 7 K/BB, 1 SB in 91 AB for Double-A Tulsa
.200/.429/.200, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 6/ 4 K/BB, 0 SB in 10 AB for Mesa (AFL)
Wrist problems continued to hold him back last year, but when healthy, Baker
displayed fine offensive potential and solid defensive skills at third base.
Unfortunately, he has a superior prospect in Stewart coming up behind him. A
move to second base is something that should be considered, especially since
Jayson Nix can no longer be penciled in as a future regular. It’s more likely
that he’ll head to the outfield at some point, although with a good 2005
between Tulsa and Triple-A Colorado Springs, he might be an option for the
Rockies at third the following year. First of all, he just needs to show he can
stay healthy.
6. Jeff Salazar - OF - Age 24 - ETA: April 2006
.347/.419/.586, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 33/38 K/BB, 17 SB in 314 AB for Single-A Visalia
.223/.331/.313, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 31/35 K/BB, 10 SB in 224 AB for Double-A Tulsa
I was probably overeager in giving Salazar a spot on the Midseason Top 100. He
excelled in the California League and he got off to a decent start following
his promotion to Tulsa, but he crashed and burned over the final two months.
Since he turned 24 in November, he can’t afford any more missteps in the
minors. Salazar has enough range to play center field in the majors, so even
though questions remain about his bat, he’s still a pretty good prospect. That
he could hit 15 homers and steal 25 bases per year while playing in Coors Field
makes him especially intriguing for fantasy purposes.
7. Brad Hawpe - OF - Age 25 - ETA: Now
.322/.384/.652, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 91/36 K/BB, 3 SB in 345 AB for Colorado Springs
.248/.322/.400, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 34/11 K/BB, 1 SB in 105 AB for Colorado
Of the Rockies’ major league ready prospects, Hawpe clearly has the most
offensive potential. The product of Louisiana State has never failed to slug
.500 in the minors, and he wasn’t too far off Calvin Pickering’s pace in the
Pacific Coast League last season. The problem is that he’s a natural first
baseman on a team with Todd Helton. The Rockies intend to give him a chance to
win the starting job in right field this season, but he probably won’t show
enough range to be a long-term option as long as Helton is around.
8. Clint Barmes - SS - Age 26 - ETA: Now
.328/.376/.505, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 61/28 K/BB, 20 SB in 533 AB for Colorado Springs
.282/.320/.437, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 10/ 3 K/BB, 0 SB in 71 AB for Colorado
I’m not convinced he’ll hit enough to be a quality regular, but Barmes does
have a quality glove and he earned his opportunity to start at shortstop with
his performance last year. It just needs to be remembered that he hit .276/.316
/.394 for Colorado Springs in 2003. Barmes never had an 800 OPS before last
year, so it might be that he’ll spend most of his career as a utilityman.
However, Coors Field will leave him with solid enough numbers that it could be
a few years before the Rockies realize they need to upgrade. After all,
they’re convinced that Aaron Miles was decent last year.
9. Ryan Shealy - 1B - Age 25 - ETA: April 2006
.318/.411/.584, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 123/61 K/BB, 1 SB in 469 AB for Double-A Tulsa
OK, so ranking Shealy eighth and Jeff Francis ninth on this list two years ago
was an act of silliness. But at least I can argue that it was only slightly
sillier than Baseball America choosing not to put Shealy in its Rockies’ top
30 in either 2003 or 2004. Shealy led the Texas League in home runs and RBI
while playing for Tulsa last season, finally earning him some respect. He’s
limited to first base, so he’s not going to be a regular for the Rockies.
However, he deserves a chance to play somewhere.
10. Garrett Atkins - 3B - Age 25 - ETA: Now
.366/.434/.578, 15 HR, 94 RBI, 45/57 K/BB, 0 SB in 445 AB for Triple-A Colorado Springs
.357/.424/.536, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3/ 4 K/BB, 0 SB in 28 AB for Colorado
There’d be more upside on the Rockies’ list if the team had dumped veterans
like Royce Clayton, Vinny Castilla and Jeromy Burnitz last July. Since they
didn’t, Barmes, Atkins, Hawpe and No. 11 J.D. Closser all still qualify for
the list, leaving no room for RHP Juan Morillo, OF Seth Smith and RHP Ching-Lung
Lo.
Atkins will become Colorado’s third baseman this season, but the converted
first baseman hasn’t improved enough at the hot corner to turn himself into
any kind of a long-term option at the position and his lack of power doesn’t
leave him well-suited for first base. In a best-case scenario, he could prove
adequate in a corner outfield spot once the Rockies move him off third to make
room for Baker or Stewart in a year or two. Playing in Coors Field should make
Atkins a top Rookie of the Year candidate this season, but within a few years,
he might be only a good bench player.
2004 top 10: Chin-Hui Tsao, Ian Stewart, Jason Young, Jeff Francis, Jayson Nix,
Ubaldo Jimenez, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, Ching-Lung Lo,
Matt Holliday
2003 top 10: Jack Cust, Aaron Cook, Chin-Hui Tsao, Brad Hawpe, Jason Young,
Choo Freeman, Garrett Atkins, Ryan Shealy, Jeff Francis,
J.D. Closser
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