[討論] Free Agent Profile: James Shields

看板RedSox作者seekforever (sadnessflower)時間11年前 (2014/11/07 18:13)推噓15(15推 0噓 10→)

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/free-agent-profile-james-shields.html In December 2012, the Rays traded James Shields, Wade Davis, and Elliot Johnson to the Royals for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard. Myers was regarded as one of the best prospects in the game at the time, so the Royals paid a huge price to add Shields atop their rotation. Big Game James anchored the Royals’ rotation for two years, living up to his reputation as a workhorse and posting a 3.18 ERA for his new club. Now, Shields enters free agency for the first time in his career. 這段在講皇家拿到Shields的交易過程 Strengths/Pros 優勢 Shields has never been on the disabled list in his nine-year career and has served as the ultimate rotation workhorse. Since 2007, Shields has averaged 231 innings and more than 34 starts per season, including the postseason. This year for the Royals, Shields tallied 252 innings across 39 starts. He tied for sixth in baseball with 227 regular season innings, and led the American League in 2013 with a similar total. From 2013-14, Shields’ 455 2/3 regular season innings ranks second in all of baseball. 九年職業生涯沒進過ＤＬ，自０７年起平均每年３４次先發可以吃２３１局今年幫皇家投了２５２局，近兩年投了４５５局全大聯盟排第二，頂級工作馬 Shields’ ability to go deep into games is a bullpen-saver, a trait that the pitcher finds very important. This year in the regular season, he averaged 6.68 innings per start, which ranked 13th in baseball. He was even better in the three years prior, averaging 7.06 innings per start. Shields tied for the MLB lead with 27 quality starts in 2013, and tied for 10th with 24 this year. 在現代棒球，先發投手能吃局數節省牛棚的使用量被視為重要的特質他今年每次先發可以吃６.６８局，前三年則是７.０６局，去年有全大聯盟最多的２７場優質先發，今年２４場排第１０ It’s not just about the innings with Shields, of course. He’s also a very good pitcher. He has a 3.18 regular season ERA over the past two seasons, which ranked 23rd in baseball and 10th in the AL. He was worth 8.2 wins above replacement in that time, 14th in MLB. If we calculate WAR using Shields’ actual runs allowed, he jumps up to 9.9, basically a tie for the seventh-best figure in baseball. Whether or not Shields fits your definition of an ace, he’d be the best starting pitcher on a lot of different teams. 他不只能吃局數，內容也很不錯，過去兩季３.１８的防禦率排全大聯盟第２３這段期間的ＷＡＲ高達８.２，排全大聯盟第１４，無論你對ＡＣＥ的定義為何，他在很多球隊都是最好的投手 How does he do it? One key attribute is Shields’ stellar control. He allowed only 1.7 walks per nine innings this year, 14th among qualified starters. 2013 aside, Shields has generally hovered around 2.3 walks per nine. These days, he relies primarily on a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a changeup. Shields has generally been known for possessing one of the game’ s best changeups, and the numbers bear that out at least for 2011-13. 他的好成績主要來自優秀的控球，今年每九局的四死球只有１.７次，排全大聯盟第１４近年來的主要武器包括四縫線、卡特、以及頂級的變速球 For someone like Jon Lester, his fastball velocity is trending downward, as you’d expect as a pitcher enters his 30s. Shields, on the other hand, started his career working around 90 miles per hour and steadily increased to the point where he averaged a career-best 92.4 miles per hour in 2014. 速球型投手如Lester，你會擔心他三十歲後的球速衰退，但Shields今年的均速反而是生涯最快的92.4 miles Weaknesses/Cons 劣勢 Shields has been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last four seasons. But where will he slot in over the next four or five? The average American League starting pitcher this year posted a 7.35 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 43.2% groundball rate, 3.92 ERA, and 3.89 SIERA. Shields posted a 7.14 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 45.2% groundball rate, 3.21 ERA, and 3.59 SIERA. He was undoubtedly above average, owing to his control and innings total. But he had a below average strikeout rate, and he wasn’t anything special at preventing home runs. His vaunted changeup seemed to go missing for the first two-thirds of the season, and he didn’t look good in the playoffs, posting a 6.12 ERA and allowing 36 hits in 25 innings. 過去四年他無疑是高於平均的投手，然而未來的四到五年能否維持好表現？他的三振率低於平均、被全壘打率也差不多今年上半季找不到變速球的準星，季後賽表現也很難看 American League starters have stranded about 72.5% of baserunners over the past two seasons, while Shields has stranded 77.1%. From 2006-12, Shields’ LOB% was 72.6%. If we assume his true talent is close to that of the league and the first seven years of his career, we might say he’s been lucky to have left so many runners on base while pitching for the Royals. That may account for much of the difference between his 3.68 SIERA and 3.18 ERA. Shields’ 3.68 SIERA from 2013-14 ranked 34th among qualified starters and is comparable to fellow free agent Ervin Santana (3.70, 37th). 今年亮眼的ＥＲＡ可能來自皇家的優異守備，真實的表現比較接近Ervin Santana Shields’ strikeout rate bounced around in the 8.1-8.8 per nine range from 2010-12, but he’s at 7.43 per nine over the past two seasons. He’s not missing a lot of bats relative to league average these days, and he allowed nearly a hit per inning in 2014 despite no anomalies with his batting average on balls in play. The Royals were baseball’s best defensive team for each of Shields’ years with them, and leaving that defense could hurt him on balls in play. 過去兩季三振率明顯下滑，也較少讓打者揮空，今年每局平均接近被打一支安打，離開皇家的守備後，數據可能不會那麼好看 Shields has been mostly a flyball pitcher outside of 2012, and in the first seven years of his career with the Rays he allowed 1.14 home runs per nine innings. That came down to 0.85 per nine with the Royals, who play in a ballpark known for suppressing home runs. Shields might be a bad fit for a place like Yankee Stadium or Minute Maid Park. 除了１２年外，大致上都是飛球投手，而皇家主場很難打全壘打，如果到洋基或太空人主場這類球場，被全壘打率可能上升 Shields turns 33 years old in December. Max Scherzer will play most of next season at age 30, and Lester will pitch at age 31. Aside from Jake Peavy and Hiroki Kuroda, all the second-tier starting pitchers are also younger. １２月就要３３歲了，除了ＰＶ跟黑田以外的ＦＡ先發都比他年輕 Shields was one of four starting pitchers to receive a qualifying offer, and all of them figure to decline on Monday. Potential suitors such as the Marlins, Yankees, or Giants would have to forfeit their first-round draft pick in 2015 to sign him. 預料將拒絕皇家提出的ＱＯ Personal 個人特質 Shields was born in Newhall, California and resides in Rancho Santa Fe, CA with his wife and two daughters. He was offered a full scholarship to Louisiana State University out of high school, but chose to sign with the Rays instead. 這段談他的成長背景 You might be familiar with Shields’ cousin, former White Sox, Phillies, and Giants outfielder Aaron Rowand. Rowand gave cousin Jamie a wake-up call of sorts when the pitcher was in the minors. “I was being kind of lazy and just trying to let my talent take over,” Shields told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune in 2008. The pitcher moved to Las Vegas for early morning training with Rowand and remembered his cousin telling him, “I’m going to show you how big leaguers really work and how to stay healthy every season and do what it takes to succeed in this game.” Shields owes a lot to his family, crediting older brother Jeremy for teaching him the changeup that set his career back on track following surgery for a benign cyst in his shoulder in ’02. 堂哥Aaron Rowand教導他如何成為一個大聯盟球員，讓他的生涯回到正軌 James and his wife started the Big Game James Club in 2010, an initiative inviting foster children to Tropicana Field. Market 市場狀況 Starting pitching is plentiful this winter, but Shields is the third-best starter and shouldn’t require the six or seven-year commitments Jon Lester and Max Scherzer will. He’s a durable, veteran leader who soaks up innings and has ample postseason experience, if not a strong record in that arena. The Royals will attempt to re-sign Shields, but otherwise the Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Angels, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Marlins, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, White Sox, and Tigers may be looking for starting pitching in some capacity. However, it’s not likely all of those teams will be willing to make the kind of commitment it will take to sign Shields. 他是今年第三好的ＦＡ先發，而且簽他不需要給到６、７年以上的長約他耐投、是稱職的休息室領袖，且有豐富的季後賽經驗（即便成績差強人意）皇家會試著簽回他，其他包括紅襪、小熊、洋基、天使、道奇等隊都會對他有興趣但這些球隊不見得給得出簽下他所必要的合約 It’s been suggested Shields is off the Yankees’ radar, and likewise outside of Arizona’s comfort zone, financially speaking. Shields has been rumored as a potential fallback option for the Cubs, should they fail to sign Lester. The Red Sox are an oft-cited suitor, though Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote in September that Shields would be “off the list” if he requires a five-year deal. Boston reportedly topped out at an insulting four-year, $70MM offer to Lester in Spring Training, which would make a five-year offer exceeding $90MM to Shields seem inconsistent. 洋基跟響尾蛇先前曾否認有追求Shields的打算，小熊則可能將他當成Lester的備胎紅襪是最常被提到的追求者，雖然Cafardo在九月時報導紅襪不會出到五年以上的長約如果季初開給Lester四年７０Ｍ被拒，季後卻開給Shields五年９０Ｍ以上，似乎有點自打嘴巴 Expected Contract　預測的合約 Shields was drafted by the Devil Rays out of high school in the 16th round in 2000, and he never ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects. He broke into the Majors at age 24. After impressing in his first full season in ’07, he signed a four-year, $11.25MM deal with the Rays that contained three club options. He ended up earning about $40.5MM for seven seasons, the last two of which would have been free agent years. Shields can hardly be blamed for locking in his first fortune at age 26, but now he finally has freedom to choose where he signs and to sign for his full market value. 他之前的合約讓他晚了兩年進ＦＡ，這是他第一次可以獲得完全符合身價的薪水 Shields should not have a problem securing multiple four-year offers. It is that fifth year, covering his age-37 season, that will be a sticking point for some clubs. To find a free agent starting pitching contract of four of more years that included someone’s age-37 season, you have to go back six years to Derek Lowe‘s deal with the Braves. That remarkable four-year contract covered Lowe’s age 36-39 seasons and was almost immediately regrettable. That was the offseason the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, leaving Scott Boras clients Lowe and Oliver Perez as the most desirable starters. This free agent market is not set up that way, but I think Shields’ reputation as a workhorse will net him that fifth year. For a deeper look at where Shields fits in with historical free agent comparables like C.J. Wilson, John Lackey, and A.J. Burnett, check out Jeff Todd’s excellent piece from March. 拿到好幾份四年約報價應該不是問題，但一些球隊不想給涵蓋他３７歲的第五年之前勇士在Derek Lowe３６歲時給他的四年約就是個慘痛教訓，但Shields工作馬的好名聲仍可能讓他拿到五年約，可能的對照組包括： C.J. Wilson（五年７７.５Ｍ），John Lackey以及A.J. Burnett（五年８２.５Ｍ） In some offseasons, Shields would have been the best available starter, but this winter he must contend with Scherzer and Lester. Shields’ average annual value depends on how he is viewed. Some teams might see him as Scherzer/Lester lite, justifying a $20-22MM salary. Others could view him as Ervin Santana plus, suggesting $18-19MM. That’s a fairly wide spread, but I ’m going with a five-year, $95MM deal for Shields. 他的價值取決於他如何被看待，如果認為他是差一點的１號先發，那就有機會給他一年２０－２２Ｍ的薪水，如果認為他是好一點的Ervin Santana，那開出來的年薪就會在１８－１９Ｍ左右我預估他能夠拿到五年９５Ｍ的合約－－－ Shields是很有可能補上我們前兩號先發大洞的人選之一，這篇大略把他的優缺點講了一下，大家可以參考看看～ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 111.243.103.234 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/RedSox/M.1415355227.A.231.html

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