Re: Daisuke Matsuzaka & Relative Value on the F …

看板RedSox作者nolander (Dent)時間15年前 (2010/07/09 12:45)推噓17(17推 0噓 16→)

留言33則, 17人參與討論串1/1

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言： : http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/07/daisuke_matsuza.php : Let’s get a few things out of the way. Daisuke Matsuzaka’s value as a : starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox has not been commensurate with the : $103 million they doled out to acquire the player. Also, just like many other : Red Sox fans who feel frustrated watching Daisuke perform, his pitching can : drive me nuts at times, too. He works slowly and walks way too many batters. : In his final four seasons for the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka averaged 2.3 walks : issued per nine innings. For the Red Sox, his 162-game average BB/9 has : jumped to 4.3. Combine the walks, his inefficiency and his unreliability from : a health standpoint and it’s all just very maddening. 先澄清幾件事:松坂這種牛肉的肉質對紅襪來說似乎不值103M的價格同時如強者我襪迷朋友所說:吃這種牛肉總是令人不耐投個球摸來摸去又一直保送之前在西武他平均每九局也才投2.3個BB 但到了這邊則變成4.3... 綜合以上:保送無效率跟不可靠度...而且是在沒受傷的狀態下...真的令我很不爽 : With all that said, I was taken aback yesterday morning when I read this Nick : Cafardo headline from The Boston Globe. In a piece about Matsuzaka and : another frustrating outing in St. Petersburg Monday night, the following : headline appeared: : You wonder when it’ll start to pay off 不過呢我昨天在Boston Globe上看到Nick Cafardo 的一篇有關松坂跟星期一在佛羅里達那場煩悶比賽的文章他的標題是這樣的:到底什麼時候才會覺得值得勒... : This headline very much reflects conventional wisdom here in Boston. At my : doctor's office yesterday, the nurse asked me "what are we gonna do about : Daisuke?" I think we've reached a point where public perception on Daisuke is : now far too negative. For perspective, I would like to look at his : acquisition from a different angle. 這標題反映了本地的傳統智慧 (按:應該是指普遍的看法) 我昨天去了醫生的辦公室護士問我說:你們到底有沒有要對牛肉想點辦法? 我想...這座城市已經到了對牛肉過敏的程度不過我倒是想從不同的角度來看招攬松坂這件事兒 : The aim of this entry is not to defend the Matsuzaka signing like I did with : J.D. Drew during the off-season. J.D. Drew is a terrific baseball player, one : any team would be lucky to have. He is not overpaid at all, not by one cent. : In fact, his signing has been one of the better free agent deals over the : last five seasons or so. The aim of this entry is to showcase the sort of : value teams are likely to receive when they turn to the free agent market. : From this lens, compared to other free agent starting pitchers, Matsuzaka may : not be the best signing of Theo Epstein’s time as Red Sox General Manager, : but it’s important to keep in mind that the Japanese right-hander has also : been a key contributor to some excellent Red Sox teams. 雖說不同角度但我不是要為簽松坂平反我季前寫過一篇幫豬翻案的了牛肉跟豬肉不一樣豬肉不便宜但是沒有貴到我的重點是: 認清在自由市場我們想得到的是什麼! 從這個角度來說相對於其他的SP 松坂這約雖不是帥哥經理的自豪之作但別忘了這隻日本來的先發右投仍為紅襪作出了相當的貢獻 : Since the 2006-2007 off-season, when Matsuzaka signed with the Red Sox, there : have been 33 contracts handed out to starting pitchers whose total value met : or exceeded $10 million. Of those 33, 9 have contributed no value at all, or : even negative value. Jason Schmidt, Adam Eaton, Kei Igawa, Mark Mulder, Woody : Williams, Oliver Perez, Aroldis Chapman, Randy Wolf and Jason Marquis (in his : deal signed prior to this season) all have either added nothing to the Big : League club or in some cases, actually altogether detracted from their teams’ : winning efforts irrespective of money. That’s $254 million total doled out : to pitchers who have just killed their teams or in Chapman’s case, not yet : had a chance to contribute. : That leaves another 24 contracts for pitchers who have contributed to their : teams’ winning efforts. Presented below are those 24, sorted by Millions of : dollars spent per Win Above Replacement (thanks Fangraphs). 從06~07年的季後我們簽下松坂後各家SP們總共拿到33張10M以上的大約其中9張可以說是把錢丟到水裡甚至爛到等於拿錢資敵的程度 Jason Schmidt, Adam Eaton, Kei Igawa, Mark Mulder, Woody Williams, Oliver Perez, Aroldis Chapman, Randy Wolf and Jason Marquis 總價是254M 這幾張大約殺害了這幾支球隊的希望而其中查普曼則是尚未有機會表現而其他24張大約則是正面的以下是這些合約的CP值表(用WAR呈現) 球員名約長總價年薪 WAR WAR/季 $ per win(M) Joel Pineiro 2009-2010 $16.00 $8.00 1.8 3.6 2.22 Mike Mussina 2006-2007 $23.00 $11.50 8.2 4.1 2.8 Greg Maddux 2006-2007 $10.00 $10.00 3.5 3.5 2.86 Jason Marquis 2006-2007 $21.00 $7.00 7.3 2.43 2.88 Ted Lilly 2006-2007 $40.00 $10.00 10.9 3.11 3.22 Andy Pettitte 2009-2010 $11.75 $11.75 1.7 3.4 3.46 Ryan Dempster 2008-2009 $52.00 $13.00 5.5 3.67 3.54 Andy Pettitte 2006-2007 $16.00 $16.00 4.5 4.5 3.56 Gil Meche 2006-2007 $55.00 $11.00 10.7 3.06 3.59 Andy Pettitte 2007-2008 $16.00 $16.00 4.4 4.4 3.64 C.C. Sabathia 2008-2009 $161.00 $23.00 8.2 5.47 4.2 川上憲伸 2008-2009 $23.00 $7.67 2.7 1.8 4.26 John Lackey 2009-2010 $82.50 $16.50 1.6 3.2 5.16 Derek Lowe 2008-2009 $60.00 $15.00 4.1 2.73 5.49 A.J. Burnett 2008-2009 $82.50 $16.50 3.9 2.6 6.35 松坂大輔 2006-2007 $103.00 $17.00 8.9 2.54 6.69 Jamie Moyer 2008-2009 $13.00 $6.50 1.3 0.87 7.47 Vicente Padilla 2006-2007 $33.75 $11.25 4.5 1.5 7.5 Tom Glavine 2006-2007 $10.50 $10.50 1.3 1.3 8.08 Carlos Silva 2007-2008 $48.00 $12.00 3.5 1.4 8.57 Barry Zito 2006-2007 $126.00 $18.00 7 2 9 Ben Sheets 2009-2010 $10.00 $10.00 0.5 1 10 O. Hernandez 2006-2007 $12.00 $6.00 0.9 0.45 13.33 Jeff Suppan 2006-2007 $42.00 $10.50 1.5 0.43 24.42 : As you can see, Matsuzaka is far from a bargain. But at the same time, he's : in the same neighborhood as players like John Lackey and A.J. Burnett, and : that's WITH his lost season of 2009. Of those 33 contracts I alluded to : earlier, Matsuzaka ranks 18th in terms of dollars spent per Win Above : Replacement. That's not great value, but it is just about the median. 如表:牛肉是不便宜但他隔壁的幾隻姜雷姬, AJB都算是一級高手別忘了09整季報銷也算在裡面綜合以上(也加上那9張負值約) 松坂的CP值排18名是不怎麼划算但也差不多是中位數 : This brings me back to the Cafardo headline. "You wonder when it will start : to pay off." I look at that and think to myself that IT IS paying off. Maybe : it has not been an optimal allocation of resources, maybe Matsuzaka has not : lived up to expectations, but he has had two very good seasons, one lost to : injury and is on pace to have another decent year. That's not a terrible : return. 回到之前的標題:到底什麼時候才會覺得值得我看了上面的表...其實覺得已經算是划算了也許不是個最適當的投資也許牛肉沒達到大家的期待但他還是有兩季很屌的表現一季因傷報銷今年也.... 但綜合來說真的沒有太爛啦 : The purpose of the free agent market is for teams to round out personnel : where their farm systems could not supply the talent needed. By its nature, : the free agent market offers less value than players in their cost-controlled : years. The beauty of this is that so long as the Red Sox draft well and get : ridiculous value from the likes of Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin : Youkilis, they can afford to overspend on Matsuzaka. And this principle : doesn't just apply to big market teams. Derek Lowe hasn't exactly supplied : great value for Atlanta, but they sit in first place. Other expensive : "under-performers" like Aaron Harang, Carlos Guillen and Rich Harden suit up : for teams atop their respective divisions. Free agent "misses" come with the : territory. 在自由市場採購的目的是要用錢補洞不可能跟農場養的一樣便宜大碗有鑒於我們家農場養的好稍微花一些在這隻牛肉上面還可以接受這個定律也不只在大市場球隊適用斧頭幫的D. Lowe那張約也差不多糗但斧頭幫仍然盤據分區首位其他爛約們比如Aaron Harang, Carlos Guillen and Rich Harden所在球隊也表現良好在自由市場的失敗投資所在多有 (按:作者想表達這不是真正的重點) : Two of the more maligned players in my time following the Boston Red Sox : closely, J.D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka, both joined the team prior to the : 2007 season. They will cost the Red Sox a combined $173 million when it is : all said and done. Since their arrival, thanks in part to their considerable : contributions, Boston is 99 games over .500, has won a World Series, lost in : Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS and has qualified for the post-season in three : consecutive years. Matsuzaka will probably never be the pitcher Boston fans : hoped he would be, but Matsuzaka has also contributed greatly to some of the : most successful Red Sox teams in franchise history. In this light, since all : we root for is the Red Sox to win, maybe the nibbling, the DL stints, the : posting fee and the big contract have been worth it after all? 我看紅襪的日子裡兩名常被罵爛約的球員豬跟牛...都在07球季前加入總共花在他們身上173M 從他們來之後這支球隊連三年進季後賽比五成勝率多贏了99場拿到一個世界冠軍 08年在ALCS也打到第七場這或多或少是他們的貢獻松坂可能無法達到紅襪國的高期待但他也為這隻優秀的紅襪隊貢獻良多大家都想看到紅襪贏球即使總是投的很毛在DL呆上好一段時間還要入礼費跟大合約看看他來之後紅襪整隊的精采表現其實真的值得? (按:很機掰的用問號結尾) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 70.179.12.51 ※ 編輯: nolander 來自: 70.179.12.51 (07/09 12:53)

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